Core Viewpoint - Peloton Interactive has faced significant stock declines, down 31% over the past year and 96% from its all-time highs, raising questions about its recovery potential by 2026 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Stock Decline - Peloton initially thrived during the pandemic due to increased demand for home fitness products but struggled to adapt when demand decreased as gyms reopened [1] - The company has made efforts to adjust its business model and align with current market trends, but challenges persist [2] Group 2: Business Model and Product Development - Peloton is transitioning towards a subscription model, which offers higher margins and increased demand, while also exploring new product lines like the Peloton Pro Series for commercial use [3] - The company is expanding its retail presence and forming wholesale partnerships to enhance market reach [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the fiscal first quarter of 2026, Peloton reported a 5% increase in average workout time per connected fitness subscription and a GAAP net income of $14 million in Q3 [4] - However, Q3 revenue fell 6% year-over-year to $551 million, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 51.5% [5] - Paid connected fitness subscriptions decreased by 6%, and paid app subscriptions were down 8% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Management anticipates a 2% sales decrease for the full fiscal year 2026, indicating potential for slight recovery from Q1 [9] - Guidance includes expectations for flat sales in Q2, along with increases in free cash flow, gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA for the year [9] - Despite ongoing revenue declines, the positive net income suggests operational efficiency, but revenue growth will be essential for sustained profitability [8]

Core Thesis - Peloton Interactive, Inc. is undergoing a significant transformation under new CEO Peter Stern, focusing on profitability and strategic overhaul, with a new product line aimed at enhancing user experience and engagement [2][4][5] Product Innovation - The introduction of the Peloton Cross Training Series features AI-assisted workouts, upgraded hardware, and a built-in movement tracking camera, promoting cross-training and personalized health plans through "Peloton IQ" [2][3] - AI integration is expected to reduce localization costs by translating and dubbing content for international markets [3] Business Model Restructuring - Peloton has shifted its retail model from large stores to smaller mall kiosks and launched "Peloton Repowered" for used equipment [3] - The commercial arm, Precor, is being repositioned to target gyms, hotels, and corporate clients with the new Peloton Pro Series line [3] Market Positioning and Financial Outlook - Stern has repositioned Peloton from a fitness brand to a broader "health and wellness" platform, expanding its addressable market [4] - Despite conservative FY2026 guidance of $2.5 billion in revenue and $425 million in EBITDA, management plans an additional $100 million in cost cuts, indicating potential for outperformance [5] - Peloton raised hardware and subscription prices by 15-20%, expected to add approximately $160 million in EBITDA annually [4] Engagement and Retention - Engagement metrics remain strong, with cancellation rates lower than Netflix's, and subscribers using multiple workout types showing significantly higher retention [4] Investment Sentiment - Peloton is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 53 hedge fund portfolios holding PTON at the end of Q2, up from 52 in the previous quarter [7] - While Peloton shows potential, certain AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential and less downside risk [7]

Peloton (NasdaqGS:PTON) 2025 Conference December 03, 2025 01:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsPeter Stern - CEOConference Call ParticipantsNathan Feather - Small and Mid-Cap Internet AnalystNathan FeatherHi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us. My name is Nathan Feather. I'm Morgan Stanley's Small and Mid-Cap Internet Analyst. I'm excited to be joined today by Peter Stern, CEO of Peloton. Thanks so much for joining us.Peter SternThanks for having me, Nathan.Nathan FeatherYeah. Now, before ...

Core Insights - Peloton has partnered with the Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix to create exclusive fitness programming during the race weekend, marking a unique collaboration between the fitness and racing industries [1][7]. Group 1: Event Collaboration - Peloton will host a series of live classes at the Awakening Theatre at Wynn Las Vegas, featuring a mix of Cardio and Strength programming led by Peloton instructors [2]. - The collaboration includes the introduction of a Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix 2025 Class Collection on Peloton's platform, allowing members to access recorded classes from the event [2][3]. Group 2: Exclusive Content - Peloton will capture exclusive Scenic content, enabling members to virtually experience the Las Vegas Strip Circuit from their Peloton Bike or Tread [3]. - The Las Vegas Grand Prix Scenic experience will feature a 3.8-mile track with 17 high-speed turns, available exclusively on the Peloton platform [3]. Group 3: Marketing and Promotion - Peloton's marketing strategy includes high-impact media placements throughout the race weekend, promoting its new Cross Training Series and enhancing brand visibility [6]. - The partnership aims to merge the high-energy environments of racing and fitness, appealing to both communities and creating innovative fitness experiences [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Class Schedule - Specific classes recorded during the event include a 30-minute ride and run with Peloton instructors, available on the platform starting November 24 [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 was $551 million, comprising $152 million from connected fitness products and $398 million from subscription revenue, outperforming guidance by $6 million [19] - Paid connected fitness subscriptions decreased by 6% year-over-year to 2.732 million, with average net monthly churn improving to 1.6%, a 20 basis point improvement year-over-year [18][19] - Total gross profit was $284 million, a decrease of 7% year-over-year, with total gross margin at 51.5%, down 30 basis points year-over-year [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $118 million, a 2% improvement year-over-year, and free cash flow increased to $67 million, significantly outperforming prior expectations [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Connected fitness products revenue decreased by $7 million, or 5% year-over-year, while subscription revenue decreased by $28 million, or 7% year-over-year [19] - Connected fitness products gross margin was 6.9%, negatively impacted by a $13.5 million inventory accrual, but would have been 15.8% excluding this charge [21][57] - Subscription gross margin increased to 68.6%, an 80 basis point improvement year-over-year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The connected fitness market in the U.S. is still declining year-over-year, but the rate of decline has decelerated to low single digits [50] - The overall wellness economy in the U.S. is estimated to exceed $2 trillion, indicating a significant market opportunity beyond connected fitness [52] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on product innovation, wellness expansion, and new distribution channels, including a new retail partnership with Johnson Fitness and Wellness [12][13] - The launch of the Peloton Cross Training Series and Peloton IQ aims to enhance member engagement and outcomes, with a shift towards premium products [9][10] - The company is committed to operational discipline and business excellence, targeting at least $100 million in run rate cost savings by the end of fiscal 2026 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive operating income on a full-year basis in fiscal 2026, despite external challenges [32] - The anticipated financial impact of the recent recall is reflected in the guidance, with expectations for a small drag on subscriptions but overall revenue impact expected to be immaterial [4][40] - The company remains focused on execution and believes it offers an unmatched ecosystem of products and experiences to help members invest in their health and well-being [16] Other Important Information - The company has expanded its retail presence significantly, now having 10 micro stores in the U.S. and a retail presence in 46 states [12] - The acquisition of Breathwork aims to enhance mental fitness offerings, which are now included in all-access subscriptions [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the market opportunity for the new commercial business unit? - Management highlighted a large market opportunity with low share and emphasized the strategic combination of Precor's commercial-grade equipment and Peloton's software and community [32][33] Question: Are there any plans in the next five years to provide for dividends? - Management indicated it is early to discuss dividends but emphasized the importance of deleveraging and maximizing capital allocation options in the future [35][36] Question: Can you compare the recent recall to the previous one? - Management explained that the recent recall was based on different models and incidents, with a small anticipated headwind to paid connected fitness net churn due to elevated subscription pauses [38][40] Question: How do you see churn normalizing post-price increase? - Management noted that while there was an initial spike in cancellations, churn has moderated back to normal levels, with expectations for flat churn over the year despite a temporary increase in Q2 [41][44] Question: What is the overall demand environment? - Management acknowledged continued softness in connected fitness equipment demand but remains optimistic about long-term growth potential in the wellness economy [50][52]

Core Insights - Peloton Interactive Inc. has launched the Peloton Pro Series, a new line of commercial-ready fitness equipment aimed at various vertical markets such as hotels, corporate wellness centers, and country clubs [1][2] - This launch represents the first offerings from Peloton's newly established Commercial Business Unit, integrating hardware, software, coaching, and community with Precor's global support [2] - The Pro Series includes updated products like the Peloton Tread+ Pro, Peloton Bike+ Pro, and Peloton Row+ Pro, featuring enhancements for durability and tailored software for commercial use [3] Product Features - The new equipment features improved motors, a commercial limited warranty, and an advanced swivel screen for cross-training, allowing users to transition between different workout types [3] - The Peloton Tread+ Pro is highlighted as Peloton's first commercial treadmill, completing the cardio suite for commercial customers [3] Market Position - Peloton operates in the fitness and wellness sector, providing products and services both in North America and internationally [4]

Market Performance - U.S. equity markets experienced volatility due to a federal government shutdown and a weak private-sector jobs report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.65% at 46,247.29 points and the S&P 500 down 0.35% at 6,664.94 points, while the Nasdaq Composite managed a gain of 0.46% at 22,555.30 points [1][2] Economic Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report indicated a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, below expectations, marking the third reduction in four months, raising concerns about a slowing labor market and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4][3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the fed funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.75% to 4% during its meeting on October 28-29, which would be the lowest level since December 2022 [5] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector provided a boost to the S&P 500, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR advancing 2.4%, while technology stocks, particularly in artificial intelligence, showed strength, contributing to the Nasdaq's gains [7] Notable Stock Movements - Nike shares rose approximately 5% after reporting unexpected revenue growth, while Lithium Americas surged 39% following a U.S. Department of Energy investment. AES shares increased by 15% on acquisition news, and Pfizer stock rose 6% after announcing lower medication prices [6][11] Corporate Developments - United Natural Foods saw an 18.5% increase in shares after strong revenue reports, while Lamb Weston Holdings and AbbVie also reported positive earnings, with shares rising 4.3% and 3.8% respectively [11] Market Outlook - Despite the government shutdown and economic uncertainties, analysts suggest that the strong performance in Q3 2025, where the Nasdaq Composite rose 11.2%, could indicate a positive end to the year, although concerns about high valuations persist [8]

Core Insights - Peloton is initiating a new chapter with increased membership costs aimed at supporting product and service enhancements [3][4] - The company is undergoing a turnaround under new CEO Peter Stern, who has a background in Ford and Apple [4] - Peloton has previously raised prices during a turnaround in 2022 and is now implementing further cost-cutting measures [5][6] Membership Pricing Changes - Effective October, Peloton has increased its All-Access Membership from $44 to $49.99, App+ Membership from $24 to $28.99, and App One Membership from $12.99 to $15.99 [7] - This price hike coincides with a revamp of Peloton's product lineup to enhance cross-training capabilities [7] Product Enhancements - The new product lineup includes features such as a 360-degree swivel screen, improved audio, and quicker connectivity [7] - Peloton has introduced an AI system called Peloton IQ for real-time workout feedback through camera tracking [7] - A new line of commercial equipment, the Peloton Pro Series, has been launched, designed for increased durability and performance [7]