Packaged food giants Conagra Brands (CAG 1.18%) and The Campbell's Company (CPB 0.71%) are both down more than 25% year to date and are hovering around their lowest levels in over a decade. Both companies are industry giants. Conagra owns brands like Orville Redenbacher's, Slim Jim, Boom Chicka Pop, Hunt's, Reddi-Wip, Marie Callender's, and more. In addition to its flagship soup line, Campbell's also owns a variety of pasta sauce and dip brands, as well as snacks like Pepperidge Farm, Kettle, Cape Cod, Snyd ...

Core Insights - Campbell's reported a 1% organic net sales growth for fiscal 2025 Q3, with adjusted EBIT increasing by 2% and adjusted EPS at $0.73, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline, while full-year adjusted EPS is now expected at the low end of prior guidance [1] Meals and Beverages Performance - The meals and beverages segment achieved a 6% organic net sales growth and a 2% increase in consumption, marking six consecutive quarters of positive in-market consumption [2] - Strong household penetration gains in condensed cooking soups were noted, particularly among millennial consumers, with mac and cheese marketing adding approximately 1 million new households, the largest quarterly gain in four years for this subcategory [2][3] Snacks Segment Challenges - The snacks division experienced a 5% decline in organic net sales, with a 3% drop in consumption attributed to category-wide contraction and company-specific execution issues [4][5] - Recovery prospects for the snacks segment are now pushed into fiscal 2026, with management focusing on price-point strategies, multipack offerings, and targeted innovation to preserve share and margin [5] Cost Management and Acquisition Integration - The company achieved approximately $110 million in cost savings towards a $250 million multi-year target, with the SOVOS acquisition integration unlocking additional efficiencies [6][7] - Despite a 110 basis point contraction in adjusted gross profit margin, disciplined cost controls enabled a 2% adjusted EBIT gain, and acquisition synergies positively impacted adjusted EPS [6][8] Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed FY2025 guidance, now expecting adjusted EPS at the low end of the range, with meals and beverages facing shipment-related headwinds and snacks' full-year operating margin projected at 13% [8] - The FY2025 cost savings target has been raised to $130 million, and the company anticipates capital expenditures at approximately 4.5% of net sales, with tariff-related impacts on adjusted EPS estimated at $0.03–$0.05 [8]

Trade and Market Impact - Trade tensions are affecting market performance, with President Trump accusing China of violating tariff agreements and announcing a doubling of steel tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] - Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has seen a significant increase of +24% in stock price due to these developments [2] - Major indexes such as the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 are experiencing declines, with the S&P 500 down -20 points [2] Labor Market Insights - The upcoming Jobs Week includes key reports such as Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private-sector payrolls, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the U.S. Employment Report [3][4] - Expectations for job gains are set at +112K for ADP and +125K for BLS, with potential narratives of labor market loosening if these figures show weakness [4] - The U.S. labor force has been underestimated, with a current unemployment rate expected to remain low at 4.2% despite recent increases [6] Company Earnings Reports - Campbell's Company (CPB) reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 73 cents per share, exceeding expectations by +12% but slightly below the previous year's quarter [7][8] - Revenues for Campbell's reached $2.48 billion, surpassing expectations by +1.55% and showing growth from $2.37 billion year-over-year [8] Economic Indicators - The S&P Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above the key 50-level at +52.3, while ISM Manufacturing is projected to decrease to +48.5% [9] - Construction Spending for April is anticipated to show a positive change of +0.2% after a -0.5% decline in March [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The third quarter earnings performance exceeded expectations, with reported net sales increasing by 4% driven by the Sovos acquisition and organic net sales growth of 1% [5][29] - Adjusted EBIT increased by 2% year-over-year, resulting in a slight margin decrease due to lower net pricing realization [9][30] - Adjusted EPS was down 3%, with a net positive contribution from the Sovos acquisition [10][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Meals and Beverages division reported organic net sales growth of 6%, driven by volume and mix growth of 7% [13][35] - Snacks business experienced a 5% decline in organic net sales, primarily due to lower volume and mix [20][36] - The overall consumption of Meals and Beverages leadership brands increased by 2%, while Snacks leadership brand consumption declined by 3% [11][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In-market consumption for Meals and Beverages outpaced category consumption, while Snacks lagged behind due to competitive pressures [7][10] - The consumer environment showed a preference for home-cooked meals, leading to increased demand for Meals and Beverages products [11][62] - The Snacks category faced a 3% decline in in-market consumption, attributed to deteriorating consumer confidence and increased competition [20][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on near-term in-market execution and mitigating tariff impacts while investing in brand growth and capabilities [8][27] - A growth office has been established to enhance consumer insights, brand activation, and innovation [27] - The company aims to improve efficiency and effectiveness across the organization to facilitate long-term growth [27][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are making more deliberate spending decisions, impacting the Snacks business negatively [6][26] - The company expects adjusted earnings to be at the low end of the guidance range due to slower recovery in the Snacks business [7][39] - There is optimism regarding the sustainability of the at-home cooking trend, which has positively impacted the Meals and Beverages division [60][64] Other Important Information - The company has estimated the net incremental headwind of tariff-related costs to be up to $0.03 to $0.05 per share for fiscal 2025 [39][40] - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be approximately 4.5% of net sales, reflecting a decrease from prior guidance [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the pressure on the Snacks business? - Management indicated that about two-thirds of the pressure is due to overall category performance and one-third from in-market execution, with a focus on innovation and value [45][47] Question: What are the key factors for fiscal 2026? - Management noted that recovery in the Snacks business is expected to take place in fiscal 2026, with a need for increased marketing support [52][54] Question: How sustainable is the at-home cooking trend? - Management expressed optimism about the sustainability of the at-home cooking trend, supported by the company's diverse portfolio [60][64] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on future guidance? - Management clarified that the estimated tariff impact is being phased in and should not be annualized at this time due to the evolving trade landscape [75][80] Question: What is the growth expectation for Rao's? - Management expects high single-digit growth for Rao's in fiscal 2025, with confidence in the brand's trajectory [83][84]

Core Viewpoint - Campbell's is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues, which could significantly influence its stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for June 2, 2025, with expectations of quarterly earnings at $0.65 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 13.3%. Revenues are projected to be $2.44 billion, representing a 2.9% increase from the previous year [3][2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.49% over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Campbell is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.30%. This suggests a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Campbell exceeded the consensus EPS estimate of $0.73 by posting earnings of $0.74, achieving a surprise of +1.37%. Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [12][13]. Investment Considerations - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, the combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 makes it challenging to predict a positive outcome for Campbell's upcoming earnings report. Investors are advised to consider other factors beyond earnings surprises when making investment decisions [11][16].

Company Performance - US Foods reported quarterly earnings of $0.68 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.69 per share, but showing an increase from $0.54 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -1.45% [1] - The company posted revenues of $9.35 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.37%, but an increase from $8.95 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, US Foods has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Outlook - The immediate price movement of US Foods' stock will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the sustainability of earnings expectations [3][4] - US Foods shares have increased by about 2.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -4.3% [3] Earnings Estimates - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.11 on revenues of $10.15 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $3.77 on revenues of $39.51 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for US Foods is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Food - Miscellaneous places it in the top 34% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the industry outlook can significantly impact stock performance [8] - Campbell's, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.65 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -13.3% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Campbell's (CPB) is positioned well to potentially beat earnings estimates in its next quarterly report, supported by a solid history of performance in this regard [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Campbell has consistently beaten earnings estimates, with an average surprise of 1.83% over the last two quarters [2]. - In the last reported quarter, Campbell achieved earnings of $0.74 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.73 per share, resulting in a surprise of 1.37% [3]. - In the previous quarter, the company was expected to post earnings of $0.87 per share but delivered $0.89 per share, yielding a surprise of 2.30% [3]. Group 2: Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent favorable changes in earnings estimates for Campbell have been noted, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [6]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggests that stocks like Campbell have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [7]. - Campbell currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.37%, indicating that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [9].

Core Viewpoint - Ingredion reported quarterly earnings of $2.97 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44 per share, and up from $2.08 per share a year ago, indicating strong performance despite revenue challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an earnings surprise of 21.72% for the quarter, having surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [2]. - Revenues for the quarter were $1.81 billion, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.63% and decreased from $1.88 billion year-over-year [3]. Stock Performance and Outlook - Ingredion shares have declined approximately 2.9% year-to-date, compared to a 3.9% decline in the S&P 500 [4]. - The company's earnings outlook is uncertain, with current consensus EPS estimates at $2.82 for the next quarter and $11.07 for the current fiscal year, alongside projected revenues of $1.9 billion and $7.51 billion respectively [8]. Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, to which Ingredion belongs, is currently ranked in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable industry outlook [9]. - The performance of Ingredion's stock may be influenced by the overall industry outlook, as top-ranked industries tend to outperform lower-ranked ones significantly [9].