The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 25, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBruce Bodine - President and CEOChris Parkinson - Managing DirectorJason Tremblay - VP of Enterprise Strategy and Business SupportJenny Wang - EVP for CommercialJoel Jackson - Managing Director of Equity ResearchKristen Owen - Managing DirectorLuciano Siani Pires - EVP and CFOMike Sison - Managing DirectorRahi Parikh - Assistant VPVincent Andrews - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - ...

The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 25, 2026 11:00 AM ET Speaker1Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. Please note, this conference is being recorded. Now I'll turn it over to Jason Tremblay.Speaker7Thank you. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 ...

Summary of CMOC Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Ticker**: 603993.SS / 3993.HK - **Industry**: Non-ferrous metals, primarily mining and processing - **Key Assets**: Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) and Kisanfu Mine (KFM) in DR Congo, leading producer of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, molybdenum, and a major copper producer Key Financial Updates - **Target Price Revision**: - H-share target price raised to HK$28.3 from HK$20.6 - A-share target price raised to Rmb25.5 from Rmb19.0 - Target price implies 16.2x PE for H-share and 16.3x PE for A-share based on DCF valuation [1][5][32] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Revised net profit estimates for 2025/26/27E increased by 3.8%/34.2%/17.5% to Rmb20.5bn/33.9bn/31.8bn, respectively [1][4][9] - **Earnings Breakdown**: - Expected EBIT from TFM+KFM at Rmb47.2bn in 2026E, covering 82% of total EBIT - Contributions from other segments: Moly and Tungsten (8%), Brazil gold assets (6%), Niobium and Phosphate (3%) [3] Brazil Gold Assets Acquisition - **Acquisition Details**: Completed in January 2026, expected to produce 7.1 tons of gold in 2026E - **Financial Impact**: Anticipated contribution of Rmb2.4bn to net profit, accounting for 7% of total net profit based on a gold price forecast of US$4,600/oz [2][4] Market and Price Sensitivity - **Copper and Cobalt Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact from fluctuations in copper and cobalt prices [10] - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit also sensitive to changes in gold prices, with a base case at US$4,600/oz [12] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" due to positive business fundamentals, including expected output increases from TFM and KFM expansion projects and bullish medium-term copper price outlook driven by renewable energy demand [31][35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China - Weaker-than-expected real estate investment affecting copper demand - Acceleration of global mine supply could negatively impact prices [33][37] Conclusion - CMOC is positioned for growth with revised profit forecasts and strategic acquisitions, while maintaining a positive outlook on copper prices and operational expansions. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market risks that could affect performance.

Group 1: Energy and Mining Developments - Algeria's energy and mining sectors are making significant progress under the new Oil and Gas Law (Law 19-13) and the new Mining Law, with international bidding "Algeria Bid Round 2024" leading to the awarding of five oil and gas exploration and production licenses to companies like TotalEnergies, Eni, and Sinopec, indicating a resurgence in foreign investment participation [1] - The Gara Djebilet iron ore project in Tindouf province has entered the industrialization phase, with an estimated reserve of approximately 3.5 billion tons, and a primary processing production line with an annual capacity of 4 million tons is expected to commence operations in April 2026, supported by the Béchar-Tindouf railway set to be operational in January 2026 [1] - The Bled El Hedba integrated phosphate project in Tebessa province is progressing, with a planned annual production capacity of around 6 million tons of fertilizer products, and the associated railway infrastructure is expected to facilitate the transport of over 10 million tons of phosphate rock annually, generating an estimated annual revenue of $2 billion [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals and Renewable Energy - The Oued Amizour lead-zinc project in Bejaia province has an estimated recoverable reserve of about 34 million tons, with a planned annual production of 170,000 tons of zinc concentrate, projected to generate annual revenue of approximately $215 million [2] - Algeria is advancing a renewable energy plan to add 15,000 megawatts by 2035, with the first phase of 3,200 megawatts of solar projects progressing well, alongside the implementation of the SoutH2 hydrogen corridor and the Medlink Algeria-Italy electricity interconnection project, aimed at expanding green energy export capacity to Europe [2]