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Summary of China-Japan Trade Tensions Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the trade relationship between China and Japan, highlighting the economic implications of ongoing tensions between the two countries. Key Points and Arguments Trade Relationship Dynamics - 17% of Japanese exports are directed to China, while only 4% of China's exports go to Japan [2] - Japanese firms are more exposed to China, with 4.8% of their revenues coming from China compared to 0.6% for Chinese firms from Japan [2] - Despite a trade deficit with Japan, China's reliance on Japan for inputs has decreased over the years [2] Base Case Scenario - The base case anticipates limited escalation of tensions, as China is likely to calibrate trade measures to avoid significant supply chain disruptions, which would also impact its own economy [3] - Both economies are currently weak, with growth primarily driven by exports rather than domestic demand [3] Potential Escalation Scenarios - If tensions escalate, China could: 1. Expand the dual-use export-control list to include more rare earths [4] 2. Initiate anti-dumping measures against Japanese imports [4] 3. Discourage purchases of Japanese consumer goods [4] 4. Implement a temporary ban on rare earths for civilian use [4] - Such actions could lead to downside risks for Japan's growth, particularly affecting sectors like autos, electronics, and chemicals [5] Equity Market Implications - The current market backdrop is viewed as a moderate net negative for both China and Japan, but not significant enough to alter overall investment strategies [6] - Japan maintains a small overweight position (FX unhedged) while China is underweight, with Japanese defense stocks performing well [6] Macroeconomic Considerations - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) may adopt a cautious stance in response to heightened uncertainty, monitoring trade and production data closely [16] - Fiscal support for supply-chain resilience is expected to increase, focusing on diversification and strategic inventories [16] Medium-Term Implications - Japan is actively diversifying its supply sources for rare earths, including agreements with Australian and French companies to reduce dependence on China [17] - The Japanese government has established a policy to ensure stable supply of critical minerals, designating 35 resources as critical commodities [66] Market and Currency Implications - If China expands export controls, it could lead to a deterioration in risk sentiment, affecting near-term BoJ rate hike expectations and potentially causing JPY depreciation [20][21] - The current measures have already led to a significant drop in Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan and reduced flight capacity [25] Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Japan's exposure to China's export control list is manageable, with only a limited number of products affected [23] - Key products where Japan relies on China include tungsten, magnesium, and hydrofluoric acid [23] Counter-Measures from Japan - Japan is currently not considering direct counter-measures like tariffs due to the high economic costs involved, focusing instead on structural responses [14] - Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has protested against China's measures but has not indicated plans for punitive actions [50] Conclusion - The ongoing trade tensions between China and Japan present both risks and opportunities, with significant implications for various sectors and the broader economic landscape. Monitoring developments in trade policies and supply chain dynamics will be crucial for investors and policymakers alike.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Electronic Chemicals and Fine Chemicals in Japan - **Industry View**: Both sectors are rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating stable performance expectations for the upcoming periods [5][6][43] Electronic Chemicals - **Resonac Holdings**: Expected to continue significant profit growth driven by: - Expansion in AI-related materials such as Thermal Interface Materials (TIM) - Increased volumes in High-Density (HD) products - Benefits from restructuring efforts related to General Electric (GE) [5][43] - **Sumitomo Bakelite**: Anticipated to maintain strong fundamentals due to: - Stable growth in sealants - Wider adoption of LaZ materials [5][43] - **Tokyo Ohka Kogyo**: Market share is recovering in the 2nm segment, but growth is weaker than consensus expectations, with a noted decline in the 1.4nm segment [5][43] Fine Chemicals - **Mitsubishi Gas Chemical**: Gaining market share in the BGA (Ball Grid Array) market through sales to Ibiden and Unimicron [6][43] - **Tokuyama**: Experiencing strong growth in aluminum nitride and isopropyl alcohol (IPA), although trends in Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) appear weak [6][43] - **NOF**: Notable growth in explosives, with a solid performance in DDS (Drug Delivery Systems). Currently focusing on the timing of recovery in the cosmetics ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) business [6][43] - **Air Water**: Assessing the impact of improper accounting, but core businesses are becoming clearer, attracting attention for their potential [6][43] - **Denka**: Expanding low-dielectric silica and resins for CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) applications, but facing increasing special losses beyond consensus expectations [6][43] - **Daicel**: Currently in an adjustment phase for filter tow, with attractive valuations but lacking a clear growth driver [6][43] - **Kaneka**: Functional resins for the US market are expected to remain weak in Q3, with a full recovery anticipated in Q4 [6][43] - **Kureha**: Recovery in PVDF (Polyvinylidene Fluoride) for lithium-ion batteries is sluggish, but a relatively high dividend yield supports stock price [6][43] - **Sekisui Chemical**: Weak performance in automotive and housing-related materials, with an impairment announced on its biorefinery project [6][43] - **Nippon Sanso**: Facing valuation pressure due to concerns over declining Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) across the industrial gas sector [6][43] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Resonac Holdings**: - Market Cap: JPY 1,248.3 billion - Target Price: JPY 7,700 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 14.1 in 2024, increasing to 91.2 in 2025e [7][8] - **Tokyo Ohka Kogyo**: - Market Cap: JPY 767.4 billion - Target Price: JPY 6,100 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 32.1 in 2024, decreasing to 22.5 in 2026e [7][8] - **Sumitomo Bakelite**: - Market Cap: JPY 483.2 billion - Target Price: JPY 5,500 - P/E Ratio: Expected to be 24.7 in 2024, decreasing to 14.3 in 2026e [7][8] Quarterly and Annual Performance - **Quarterly Operating Profit**: - Electronic Materials showed significant YoY growth, with Resonac Holdings reporting a 55% increase in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [9][10] - **Annual Operating Profit**: - Electronic Materials projected to reach JPY 170.5 billion in FY25, with a growth rate of 17% [10][11] Additional Insights - **Forex Sensitivity**: The operating profit is sensitive to currency fluctuations, with a notable impact from changes in the USD/JPY exchange rate [11] - **Shareholder Returns**: Companies are focusing on maintaining or increasing dividend payouts, with several firms targeting a payout ratio of 40% or higher [11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial metrics from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Electronic Chemicals and Fine Chemicals sectors in Japan.