Oil prices fell back Monday (January 5, 2026) while the prices of precious metals surged as markets reacted calmly to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a weekend raid. Asian shares rallied on heavy buying of tech-related stocks after modest gains on Friday (January 2) on Wall Street. The future for the S&P 500 was up 0.2% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually unchanged. Follow the U.S.-Venezuela tensions LIVE Updates on January 5, 2025In early European tradin ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight retreat after a more than 2% increase in the previous session, influenced by a pullback in precious metals and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions [1] Group 1 - Oil prices rose over 2% in the previous session before retreating slightly [1] - The pullback in precious metals contributed to the decline in oil prices [1] - Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine are causing market concerns regarding supply disruptions [1]

The stock market erased its Santa Claus rally gains on Monday as Wall Street sold precious metals and technology stocks.The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 260 points, or 0.5%.Wall Street was generally in risk-off mode, as low volatility exchange-traded funds outperformed the broader market. Bond prices also rallied, sending yields lower. ...

The run-up to the year-end holiday period has come with big gains for precious metals, but one UBS strategist says investor beware. ...

Core Viewpoint - The devaluation of the dollar is causing savings accounts to lose value, prompting a need for investors to reconsider their asset allocations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Dollar Devaluation - Expectations for inflation have risen, leading to a decreased demand for dollars as foreign investors anticipate lower future purchasing power [3]. - Factors such as tariffs and the growing national debt contribute to the negative perception of the dollar, with inflation potentially being the only way to manage the debt without spending cuts or tax increases [4]. Group 2: Impact on Savers - Ordinary Americans, who typically hold more wealth in savings accounts, are disproportionately affected by dollar devaluation and inflation [4][5]. - Traditional savings instruments and bonds offer fixed returns, which do not keep pace with rising prices, resulting in a loss of purchasing power for savers [5]. Group 3: Alternative Asset Recommendations - It is advised that while maintaining an emergency fund in a liquid savings account is important, additional funds should be allocated to assets that are less impacted by dollar value fluctuations [5]. - Assets such as stocks, real estate, precious metals, and durable commodities are recommended as they tend to maintain their value during inflationary periods [6].

Core Viewpoint - The data center boom is expected to significantly benefit commodities, with a particular focus on natural gas, base metals, precious metals, and crude oil as key areas of growth [1][5]. Commodities Overview - Commodities are seen as the most undervalued assets currently, with a bull market already underway, particularly in gold, which has increased by 54% year-to-date [2][4]. - The investment in AI is perceived as misdirected, with a need for more focus on the raw materials required for data centers, such as metals and gas [3][4]. Specific Commodities - **Natural Gas**: Essential for powering gas turbines in data centers [6]. - **Base Metals**: Includes steel and copper, which are critical for components like gas turbines and the energy grid [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Metals such as gold, silver, and palladium are utilized in data center components [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Provides power to data centers, with no major non-OPEC oil projects expected to start next year, potentially driving prices higher [6].

Group 1: Dollar Strength and Market Dynamics - The dollar has been a significant theme in the first part of the year, contributing to the narrative of the end of U.S. exceptionalism for 2025 [1][2] - Recent movements indicate the dollar is breaking from its ranges against key currencies, suggesting potential for continued strength into year-end [3] - With approximately 70% of the market pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, there is potential upside in yields that could support the dollar's movement [4] Group 2: Asset Correlations and Market Volatility - There is a noted breakdown in cross-national correlations, with movements in the dollar not affecting other asset classes like gold or private credit [5] - The market may be entering a more volatile phase, reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble, with potential for significant corrections while still seeing overall market growth [7] - Higher dollar and yields indicate tightening financial conditions, which may negatively impact precious metals and cryptocurrencies [8] Group 3: Yen Weakness and Market Outlook - Structural factors contributing to yen depreciation remain strong, including negative real yields and a poor growth outlook [9] - The dollar is expected to strengthen against the yen, with market sentiment leaning towards further yen weakness [10] - Intervention from Japanese officials is not anticipated unless the dollar-yen exchange rate exceeds 158 [10]

Core Insights - A stronger dollar negatively impacts risk appetite, precious metals, and earnings [1] Group 1: Implications for Risk Appetite - The appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce investors' risk appetite, leading to a more cautious investment environment [1] Group 2: Impact on Precious Metals - A stronger dollar generally results in lower prices for precious metals, as they are often inversely correlated with the dollar's strength [1] Group 3: Effects on Earnings - Companies that rely on international sales may experience a decline in earnings due to unfavorable currency exchange rates caused by a stronger dollar [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Public Investment Corporation (PIC) has increased its shareholding in Sibanye-Stillwater to 20.42%, making it the largest investor in the mining company [1] - Sibanye-Stillwater operates mines across five continents and produces various metals including nickel, chrome, copper, and cobalt [2] Group 2: Investment and Financial Performance - PIC manages over R3 trillion (approximately $165.62 billion) in assets and has significantly invested in South Africa's resource sector, with a 42.5% gain in its precious metals and mining investments for the 2024/25 financial year due to increased safe-haven demand [3] - PIC plans to invest R1.35 billion in early-stage mining companies, with at least half of the investments focused on energy transition minerals such as copper and lithium [4]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly shifting their investments towards alternatives to the dollar, such as bitcoin and precious metals, indicating a growing trend away from traditional fiat currencies [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in capital flowing into bitcoin as a hedge against dollar depreciation [1] - Precious metals are also seeing heightened interest from investors seeking stability amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The shift towards dollar alternatives may signal a broader change in investor sentiment regarding fiat currencies [1] - This trend could lead to increased volatility in traditional currency markets as more investors diversify their portfolios [1]