Good morning everyone. Uh my name is Nash Naraman Tupil and today I'm going to talk about the HP story you might not know. So before I go to HP story a bit about my story. I joined HP in 1997. So it's more than 28 years I've been working in HP. I'm currently the services business leader for Asia-Pacific, Japan and Europe, Middle East Africa. And I've done various other roles in HP in marketing, in uh e-commerce, in channel management, in category management, etc. Apart from my work, I have three areas of pa ...

HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) is among the Top 15 Lowest P/E Ratios of the S&P 500 in 2025. On December 1, Bernstein maintained its Hold rating for the stock with a price target of $30. Analysts Cautious on HP Inc. (HPQ) Amid Rising Memory Costs The research firm expressed concerns about rising memory prices, which it believes could significantly impact the company’s earnings in fiscal 2026, including a likely 10% reduction in full-year EPS. According to Bernstein, much of the impact is expected to be felt during ...

Core Insights - HP plans to lay off between 4,000 and 6,000 employees as part of a cost-cutting initiative aimed at saving $1 billion over the next three fiscal years, which could represent up to 10% of its workforce [2][8] - Despite reporting better-than-expected revenue of $14.6 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, HP's profit outlook for fiscal 2026, projected at $2.90 to $3.20 in EPS, fell below analyst consensus [5][6] - The layoffs at HP reflect a broader trend in the tech industry, where companies like Amazon and Microsoft are also reducing their workforce while increasing investments in AI [4][5] Company Strategy - CEO Enrique Lores emphasized the company's commitment to investing in AI-related initiatives, viewing it as a significant opportunity to enhance product innovation, customer satisfaction, and productivity [3] - The restructuring plan is part of a strategic move to align resources with the company's long-term goals, particularly in the context of rising AI investments [8] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of layoffs and the restructuring plan, HP's stock experienced a decline of approximately 2%, contributing to a year-to-date loss of nearly 27% [6]

Core Viewpoint - HP Inc. is facing challenges in meeting financial expectations, primarily due to its dependence on commodity prices and ongoing issues with quarterly performance [1][2]. Company Performance - HP Inc. has consistently missed quarterly earnings expectations, leading to skepticism about its ability to deliver future results [2]. - The company has engaged in share buybacks, repurchasing an average of 6% of its shares, but this strategy is viewed as insufficient to mask underlying performance issues [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite a recent stock price increase of nearly 6%, market sentiment remains cautious, with analysts suggesting that this does not provide a compelling reason to invest in HP [1]. - There is a belief that other sectors, particularly AI stocks, may offer better investment opportunities with higher upside potential and lower downside risk compared to HP [2].

Core Insights - Xerox is undergoing a significant reorganization following a mixed earnings report, with a notable revenue increase but a decline on a pro forma basis [3][4] - The company reported a revenue gain of $1.96 billion for Q3, marking a 28.3% increase year-over-year, but a 7.8% decline when excluding recent acquisitions [3] - Job cuts have been initiated as part of the integration process following the $1.5 billion acquisition of Lexmark, indicating a strategic move to optimize resources [4][5] Financial Performance - Xerox's Q3 revenue reached $1.96 billion, reflecting a 28.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3] - On a pro forma basis, revenue declined by 7.8%, highlighting challenges in the current macroeconomic environment [3] Organizational Changes - Chuck Butler will take over the finance department effective December 3, succeeding Mirlanda Gecaj, who is leaving for new opportunities [6][7] - Gecaj's departure is described as a mutual decision, and she played a significant role during a transformative period for the company [7] Strategic Moves - The company is focused on cost savings and resource optimization as part of its integration strategy post-Lexmark acquisition [4][5] - Employee notifications regarding workforce reductions have begun, emphasizing the challenges of merging operations [5]

Core Viewpoint - HP is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending October 2025, with the actual results being crucial for the stock's near-term price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for November 25, and better-than-expected results could lead to a stock price increase, while disappointing results may cause a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for HP's quarterly earnings is $0.92 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.1%, with revenues projected at $14.79 billion, a 5.2% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.99%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for HP is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.64%, although the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 4, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [10]. - However, a negative Earnings ESP does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, and predicting an earnings beat is challenging for stocks with negative readings or lower Zacks Ranks [11]. Historical Performance - HP has not exceeded consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter matching expectations at $0.75 per share, resulting in no surprise [13][14]. Conclusion - While HP may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors when deciding on stock movements ahead of the earnings release [17].

Company Overview - HP Inc. has a market cap of $26.1 billion and is a leading provider in personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, and gaming technologies [1] - The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments [1] Market Position - HP Inc. is categorized as a large-cap stock, benefiting from strong brand recognition and a diversified portfolio that includes PCs, printers, and emerging technologies like 3D printing [2] - The company invests significantly in R&D and focuses on innovation to remain competitive in trends such as AI-enabled PCs and hybrid work solutions [2] Stock Performance - HPQ stock has decreased by 29.7% from its 52-week high of $39.79 on November 25, 2024 [3] - Year-to-date, HPQ shares are down 14.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained 14.7% in 2025 [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, HPQ stock has fallen 15.5%, compared to a 26% increase in the Nasdaq Composite [4] Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating among 15 analysts covering HPQ stock is a "Hold," with a mean price target of $28.30, indicating a modest 1.2% upside potential from current levels [6] - On September 10, HP shares fell more than 2% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to "In Line" from "Outperform," citing limited upside potential and sluggish demand in the PC and printing markets [5]

Group 1 - HP Inc. has been highlighted by Jim Cramer as a stock that continues to miss quarterly expectations, despite having repurchased 6% of its shares on average [1] - The company operates in personal computing devices, printers, 3D printing, and related technologies, along with services for hybrid work and gaming [1] - Cramer expressed skepticism about HPQ's potential in the 3D printing sector, stating it will not significantly impact the company's performance and advised against investing in the stock [1] Group 2 - Despite Cramer's negative outlook, HPQ's stock has gained over 14% since his comments [1] - There is a belief that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to HPQ [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the Hardware sector, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure and its impact on data center equipment spending. The demand for AI-related data center equipment is expected to increase significantly, with a projected 54% year-over-year growth in capital expenditures (capex) among the top six cloud providers, reaching $388 billion in 2025 [7][8][10]. Company Insights HP Inc. - HP Inc. is projected to generate $55.1 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase. The revenue breakdown is expected to be approximately 70% from the Personal Systems Group and 30% from Printing [29][30]. - The company reported mixed earnings for Q3 2025, with strong PC demand driven by a refresh cycle, but weakness in hardware unit demand and pricing in the Printing segment. This led to a lowered EPS outlook for fiscal year 2025 [30][33]. - Personal Systems demand is bolstered by the Windows 11 refresh and AI PC adoption, with overall PC unit shipments up 5% year-over-year. The company anticipates continued growth in Personal Systems, expecting a 6% year-over-year increase in fiscal Q4 2025 [30][33]. Other Companies - The conference will feature discussions with various companies, including F5, Ingram Micro, NetApp, Axon Enterprise, and Arista Networks, focusing on their respective positions in the hardware and communications technology sectors [4][6]. Key Industry Themes 1. **AI Infrastructure Demand**: The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to grow faster in tier 2 cloud and enterprise sectors compared to hyperscalers, with projected growth rates of 58% and 48% respectively from 2024 to 2028 [12]. 2. **Traditional IT Equipment Recovery**: Traditional enterprise IT equipment is in the early stages of recovery, with server revenue growing by 15% year-over-year in Q1 2025. However, growth is primarily driven by higher average selling prices (ASPs) rather than unit growth [13]. 3. **PC Market Dynamics**: The global PC market is expected to grow by 4% year-over-year in 2025, driven by a refresh cycle and the end of Windows 10 support. HP expects industry unit growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [27][38]. Financial Projections and Risks - HP's financial outlook includes a free cash flow (FCF) of approximately $2.8 billion for fiscal year 2025, with a target to return 100% of FCF to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [29][38]. - Key risks for HP include potential decreases in commercial PC demand due to hybrid work trends, pricing pressures from high channel inventory, and competition in the printing market [36][38]. Management Questions - Questions for management include inquiries about the outlook for PC unit demand, the pace of Windows 11 adoption, and expectations for the commercial print business [37]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference, highlighting the trends and challenges within the hardware sector, particularly for HP Inc. and its peers.

Core Insights - HP's international operations are crucial for understanding its financial resilience and growth potential, especially in the context of a global economy [2][3] - The company's total revenue for the quarter ending July 2025 was $13.93 billion, reflecting a 3.1% increase year-over-year [4] International Revenue Analysis - Revenue from Europe, Middle East, and Africa was $4.5 billion, accounting for 32.3% of total revenue, which was a 2% miss against the consensus estimate of $4.59 billion [5] - Asia-Pacific and Japan generated $3.32 billion, representing 23.9% of total revenue, exceeding the projected $3.2 billion by 3.79% [6] Future Revenue Expectations - Analysts anticipate HP will report revenues of $14.46 billion for the current fiscal quarter, a 2.9% increase year-over-year, with expected contributions of 32.1% from Europe, Middle East, and Africa and 24.1% from Asia-Pacific and Japan [7] - For the full year, total annual revenue is projected at $54.9 billion, a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year, with Europe, Middle East, and Africa contributing 33.2% and Asia-Pacific and Japan contributing 23.9% [8] Market Performance - Over the past four weeks, HP's stock value increased by 16.7%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 1.6% rise [13] - In the last three months, HP shares rose by 13.3%, compared to a 9.7% increase in the S&P 500 [13]