Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure segment is expected to maintain strong momentum in 2026, driven by robust demand, despite concerns over the high valuations of major AI companies [2][3]. Company Summaries Calix Inc. (CALX) - Calix reported adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share for Q4 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38, and significantly up from $0.08 per share a year ago [4]. - Quarterly revenues reached $272.45 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.90% [4]. - The company has integrated AI into its cloud platform to enhance operations and service delivery for broadband providers, with major clients including Lumen Technologies and Verizon [6]. - Calix's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 15.6% and 41.5%, respectively, with a 4.9% improvement in the earnings estimate over the last 30 days [7]. Teradata Corp. (TDC) - Teradata reported adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share for Q4 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.55, and up from $0.53 per share a year ago [8]. - Total revenues were $421 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.52% [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, cost savings, and productivity measures, which will drive free cash flow [9]. - Teradata's innovative AI capabilities and new product rollouts are anticipated to enhance its analytics offerings and drive long-term growth [10][12]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Teradata are -2.1% and -3.9%, respectively, with a 0.4% improvement in the earnings estimate over the last 90 days [13]. Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN) - Lumen reported adjusted earnings of $0.23 per share for Q4 2025, contrasting with a loss of $0.21 per share as per the Zacks Consensus Estimate, and an adjusted loss of $0.09 per share in the prior year [14]. - Total revenues were $3.041 billion, down 8.7% year over year, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% [14]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven solutions, securing $13 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals by the end of 2025, with revenues of $41 million and $116 million recognized in Q4 and full-year 2025, respectively [15][16]. - Lumen's active customers for its network-as-a-service (NaaS) platform grew by 29% quarter over quarter, indicating strong demand for its services [17]. - The expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Lumen are -12.4% and 15.4%, respectively, with a significant improvement in the earnings estimate of over 100% in the last seven days [18].

Industry Overview - The momentum of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure segment is expected to continue into 2026, supported by a bullish demand scenario [1] - Concerns exist regarding the overstretched valuations of major AI companies, including both infrastructure developers and application implementers [1] Company Highlights Calix Inc. (CALX) - Calix reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38, and showing significant growth from $0.08 per share a year ago [6] - Quarterly revenues reached $272.45 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.90% [6] - The company has integrated AI into its cloud platform to enhance operations and service delivery for broadband service providers [8] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for Calix are 15.6% and 41.5%, respectively, for the current year [9] Teradata Corp. (TDC) - Teradata reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.55, and up from $0.53 per share a year ago [11] - Total revenues were $421 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.52% [11] - The company is expected to benefit from improved annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, cost savings, and productivity measures [12] - Teradata's expected revenue and earnings growth rates are -2.1% and -3.9%, respectively, for the current year [16] Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN) - Lumen reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.23 per share, contrasting with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.21 [17] - Total revenues were $3.041 billion, down 8.7% year over year, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% [17] - The company secured $13 billion in AI-linked Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals, boosting demand for its network-as-a-service (NaaS) solutions [18][19] - Lumen's expected revenue and earnings growth rates are -12.4% and 15.4%, respectively, for the current year [21]

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) shares have increased by 18% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's growth of 4.3% and contrasting with a 4.5% decline in the Diversified Communications Services sector [1][8] Price Performance - Lumen's stock performance has surpassed that of competitors such as Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, which have seen declines of 4.6%, 10%, and 19% respectively during the same period [4] - LUMN's current stock price is $8.45, below its 52-week high of $11.95 [5] Growth Drivers - The demand for low-latency, high-bandwidth fiber connectivity driven by AI workloads is boosting Lumen's Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) and network-as-a-service (NaaS) solutions, leading to $10 billion in secured PCF deals [6][8] - Lumen anticipates that the existing PCF business will generate $400-$500 million in recurring revenues by the end of 2028 [7] Customer Growth and New Offerings - Lumen has surpassed 1,500 customers on its NaaS platform, with a 32% sequential increase in active customers and a 36% increase in services sold [9] - The company has introduced Internet on Demand (IoD Offnet), which is expected to enhance market reach significantly [9] Strategic Initiatives - Lumen is targeting $1 billion in cost savings by 2027 through infrastructure simplification and AI-driven operational efficiencies [11] - The company is focused on deleveraging, with a planned sale of its fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, expected to close in early 2026 [12][13] Financial Position - Lumen is trading at a discounted valuation with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.74, compared to the industry average of 1.53 [14][16] Future Outlook - Lumen's new business model, including the PxQ model and Project Berkeley, aims to enhance its service offerings and market position [10] - The company expects to generate between $500 million and $600 million in incremental revenues from its digital capabilities by the end of 2028 [10]

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) shares have increased by 25.9% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 and the Diversified Communications Services sector, which grew by 18% and 13.7% respectively [1][3] - The stock's growth is attributed to the company's strategic pivot towards AI, balance sheet improvements, and enhanced operational execution [1] Financial Performance - LUMN closed at $7.63, significantly below its 52-week high of $11.95, raising questions about potential upside [4] - The company has secured $10 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals, indicating strong demand driven by AI [5][8] - Lumen's NaaS platform has surpassed 1,500 customers, with a 32% sequential increase in active customers and a 36% increase in services sold [10] Strategic Initiatives - Lumen is focusing on cost-cutting measures, aiming for $1 billion in savings by the end of 2027 through infrastructure simplification [12] - The company plans to sell its Mass Markets' fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T for $5.75 billion, which will help in deleveraging and improving its balance sheet [13][14] - Management anticipates that the existing PCF business will generate $400-$500 million in recurring revenues by the end of 2028 [9] Market Position and Valuation - LUMN is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.66, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.45, indicating a compelling valuation [15][17] - Analysts have revised earnings estimates upwards for 2025, reflecting positive sentiment towards the company's future prospects [18] Growth Outlook - The increasing demand for AI-driven connectivity solutions positions Lumen favorably in the market, with partnerships established with major tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon [6][20] - The company's new business model, including the PxQ model and Project Berkeley, aims to enhance its service offerings and market reach [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenue of $3.087 billion, a decline of 4.2% year over year, while business segment revenue decreased by 3.2% to $2.456 billion [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $787 million with a margin of 25.5%, down from approximately $900 million in the previous year [24] - Free cash flow for the quarter was over $1.7 billion, reflecting strong financial performance [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America enterprise grow revenue increased by 10.5% year over year, now representing 50% of North America enterprise revenue, up from 35.5% three years ago [4][22] - Mass market segment revenue declined by 7.7% to $631 million, while fiber broadband revenue increased by 18.4% year over year [23] - The number of active customers in the Network-as-a-Service (NAS) grew by 32% since the last quarter, with services sold increasing by 36% [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed over $1 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals, bringing the total deal value to over $10 billion [4] - The company completed more than 3,200 miles of overpulls, achieving approximately 130% of its end-year 2025 target [9] - The company added approximately 122,000 fiber-enabled homes, bringing the total to approximately 4.5 million [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming its business model to support the AI economy, emphasizing the need for a fundamental reset in networking to support Cloud 2.0 [5][6] - The strategy includes building a connected ecosystem and enhancing digital capabilities, with expectations of generating $900 million to $1.1 billion in incremental revenue by 2028 [17][28] - The company is committed to a disciplined approach in signing deals that are value accretive to shareholders [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving adjusted EBITDA stability over the next few quarters, with an inflection to growth expected in 2026 [26] - The company anticipates that the early 2026 closing of the AT&T transaction will significantly improve its debt profile and reduce annual interest expenses [20] - Management highlighted the urgency for structural change in network architecture due to the advent of AI, with expectations of data center footprints growing tenfold by 2030 [5][6] Other Important Information - The company is on track to achieve $350 million in run-rate cost takeout through its ERP system implementation [3] - The company has reduced annual interest expenses by approximately $235 million year to date through proactive balance sheet management [19] - The company expects free cash flow to be lumpy quarter to quarter as it moves through large PCF builds [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on PCF deals and revenue growth - Management confirmed that the new $1 billion in PCF bookings has margins equivalent to previous deals and emphasized a disciplined approach to business [32] Question: Insights on grow revenue and sustainability - Management indicated that grow revenue is expected to continue growing, driven by dark fiber and IP, and is becoming a larger portion of the North America enterprise revenue base [32][36] Question: Revenue impact from recent announcements - Management stated that the recent announcements are part of the connected ecosystem strategy, which is expected to improve results over time [40][44] Question: Clarification on the digital revenue outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving $500 million to $600 million in digital revenue by 2028, with multiple pathways to reach this goal [44][50] Question: Investments needed for digital platform growth - Management acknowledged significant investments are required for building the digital platform, which are already included in their plans [51] Question: Disconnects of legacy services - Management noted that disconnects have returned to normal levels and highlighted a one-time revenue item from the previous year as a significant factor [52]

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies, Inc. is set to report its Q3 2025 results on October 30, with a consensus estimate of a loss of $0.31 per share, compared to a loss of $0.13 in the same quarter last year, and total revenues expected to be $3.04 billion, reflecting a 5.5% year-over-year decline [1][10] Group 1: Financial Performance and Estimates - Lumen's earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 97.5% [2] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion for 2025, expecting to report near the high end of this range [10] - Cost-cutting measures are projected to yield $350 million in run-rate benefits for 2025, an increase from the previously targeted $250 million [10] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Lumen is benefiting from the rise of AI, with $9 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals, up $500 million from the previous quarter, driven by demand for existing conduit and new route construction [3] - The adoption of Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) is increasing, with Lumen surpassing 1,000 customers and partnerships with the three largest cloud service providers [4] - A connected ecosystem is being developed to facilitate the purchase and management of network services, which is expected to accelerate client acquisition [5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Lumen is pursuing a $5.75 billion sale of its Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T, expected to close in the first half of 2026, which will help reduce debt [8] - The company is focused on simplifying its capital structure and extending debt maturities, having executed a $2 billion refinancing that saves nearly $50 million in annual interest expenses [9] - Recent collaboration with Palantir Technologies aims to enhance AI deployment for enterprises in multi-cloud environments [13] Group 4: Challenges and Market Conditions - The legacy business continues to face secular headwinds, impacting top-line growth, particularly in the Wholesale segment [11] - Lumen expects Public Sector Harvest revenues to normalize in the second half of 2025 after elevated levels [12] - The company anticipates fluctuations in free cash flow as it navigates significant PCF builds, alongside concerns over higher costs, macro volatility, and competition in the AI sector [12] Group 5: Infrastructure Development - Lumen plans to add 34 million new intercity fiber miles by 2028, with over 2.2 million new miles deployed in 2025 alone [14] - Construction is ongoing at 176 In-Line Amplifier sites to enhance signal strength and scalability [14]

Core Viewpoint - Lumen Technologies has experienced a significant turnaround in 2024, primarily driven by contracts with major tech companies for its Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) service, despite ongoing financial challenges and a history of struggles in the telecom sector [1][4]. Company Overview - Lumen, previously known as CenturyLink, faced substantial debts and an uncertain future due to declines in legacy telecom businesses and the need to sell assets to remain viable [3]. - The company has secured contracts with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon for its PCF, which enhances data center connectivity [4]. Financial Performance - Lumen's stock has increased approximately 125% since its low in late April, reflecting investor optimism despite persistent financial issues [2][6]. - In the first half of 2025, Lumen reported a 3% year-over-year revenue decline to just under $6.3 billion, alongside a net loss exceeding $1.1 billion due to goodwill impairment and high interest expenses [8]. - The company carries nearly $18 billion in debt against a market cap of $7 billion, which poses a significant financial burden [9]. Future Outlook - Analyst forecasts suggest continued revenue declines, projecting a 6% decrease in 2025 and an additional 4% drop in 2026, which may impact stock price growth in the near term [9].

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies is significantly advancing its infrastructure to support the AI-driven economy by planning to deploy 34 million new intercity fiber miles by 2028, having already delivered millions of new fiber miles in 2025 to meet AI workload demands [1][2] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - In 2025, Lumen deployed over 2.2 million new intercity fiber miles, with a total expected to reach 16.6 million by year-end, utilizing next-generation Corning fiber that doubles capacity in existing conduits [2] - Construction is ongoing at 176 In-Line Amplifier (ILA) sites, enhancing signal strength with up to three times the power density of traditional ILAs, designed for future scalability [2][3] - The company completed IRU deployments across 55 additional routes, securing long-term rights to underground pathways, which enhances its fiber management capabilities [3] Group 2: Network Capacity and Performance - The network's total capacity increased by over 5.9 petabits per second in 2025, preparing it to handle high data volumes [3][10] - Lumen has allocated over $100 million to upgrade connectivity to 400Gbps across various networks, creating a high-performance pipeline for AI workloads, with the 400G-enabled network spanning over 100,000 route miles [4][10] Group 3: Growth Strategy and Market Demand - Lumen's growth strategy focuses on its Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF), which offers 25% less optical loss and 60% more capacity than traditional designs, serving 97% of U.S. business demand with ultra-low latency [5][10] - The demand for PCF solutions is rising, with Lumen securing $9 billion in PCF deals in Q2, driven by the urgent need for fiber capacity among large companies in various industries [6] - Recent initiatives like Wavelength RapidRoutes provide enterprises with faster high-capacity connections, reducing setup time from months to a 20-day delivery SLA [7] Group 4: Financial Outlook - For 2025, Lumen expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, with expectations to report near the high end of this range due to improved cost controls and performance from legacy services [8]

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) has experienced a significant stock surge of 334% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 and its peers in the communications sector [1][9] - The company is focusing on growth through AI, cloud services, and network-as-a-service (NaaS) solutions, securing $8.5 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals with major tech companies [9][10] Company Overview - Lumen, based in Monroe, LA, provides a wide range of integrated products and services to clients in business and mass markets, leveraging its extensive terrestrial and subsea fiber optic network across multiple regions [3] - The company operates in over 60 countries, with a significant portion of its revenue generated in the United States [3] Strategic Goals for 2025 - Lumen aims to achieve strong financial targets in revenue, EBITDA, and free cash flow by enhancing operational excellence, establishing a foundation for the AI economy, and transforming telecom economics [4][5] - The company plans to streamline its network and product offerings, reducing complexity and improving customer experience [4][12] Technological Advancements - Lumen's new multi-cloud, AI-ready network architecture is designed to reduce costs and latency by minimizing cross-connects and ports, enabling seamless connectivity for enterprises [6] - The company is also advancing its Digital platform with NaaS solutions that provide customizable connectivity and enhanced data security [10] Financial Outlook - For 2025, Lumen expects adjusted EBITDA to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion, reflecting challenges from legacy business declines and transformation costs [13] - Capital spending is projected at $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion, with free cash flow anticipated between $700 million and $900 million [13] Competitive Positioning - Lumen's valuation is attractive, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.35, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.57 [15] - The company faces competition from major players like Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, which have higher trading multiples [16] Future Prospects - Lumen is targeting $1 billion in savings by 2027 through network and product streamlining, with expectations of $250 million in cost savings in the current year [12][17] - The company is positioned for long-term growth in AI and telecom, despite facing macroeconomic uncertainties and legacy revenue challenges [17]

Core Viewpoint - Lumen Technologies, Inc. has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business, including Quantum Fiber, to AT&T for $5.75 billion in cash, marking a significant step in Lumen's transformation into a digital enterprise networking company [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions [2] - The sale includes approximately 95% of Quantum Fiber, covering around 4 million fiber-enabled locations and nearly 1 million subscribers as of March 31, 2025, projected to generate over $750 million in annualized revenues [3] Group 2: Financial Implications - Net proceeds from the deal, estimated at approximately $4.2 billion, will be used to retire about $4.8 billion in super priority debt, reducing annual interest expenses by $300 million and lowering the projected 2025 net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio from 4.9 to 3.9 [4] - The deal will also decrease annual capital expenditures related to Mass Markets fiber by about $1 billion, allowing Lumen to reinvest in enterprise offerings and strengthen its balance sheet [4] Group 3: Future Strategy - Lumen plans to continue new fiber buildouts at a similar pace as in 2024 through the end of 2025 while retaining its existing copper network for consumer customers [5] - The company aims to expand its intercity fiber network to 47 million miles by 2028 and focus on growing the Lumen Digital Platform to provide enhanced networking solutions for business customers [6] - Management emphasized that the transaction enhances financial flexibility to innovate enterprise networking in a multi-cloud, AI-first environment, retaining core infrastructure assets for enterprise services [7] Group 4: Market Demand and Partnerships - Increasing demand for Lumen's Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) solutions is noted, with $8.5 billion in PCF deals secured in 2024, driven by the urgent need for fiber capacity among large companies [8] - Lumen has established partnerships with major tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, Google Cloud, and Meta Platforms to support AI innovation through enhanced network capabilities [8]