Investment Rating - The report reinstates CATL-A and initiates CATL-H at a Buy rating [5] Core Insights - CATL is projected to achieve a 25% EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by strong volume growth, product mix improvement, and unit profit expansion [5] - The blended unit gross profit (GP) is expected to improve from Rmb 152/kWh in 2025 to Rmb 169/kWh in 2030, with a detailed analysis of unit GP by geography and product [5] - CATL is anticipated to maintain a global market share of approximately 40% from 2025 to 2030, supported by supply consolidation in the Chinese market and strong positioning in Europe and the Rest of World (RoW) [5] - The launch of new EV models, such as Xiaomi YU7, is expected to boost CATL's Qilin battery penetration, contributing significantly to sales volume growth [5] - The upcoming 2Q25 results are expected to focus on unit GP, CAPEX, and the US market, with a projected blended battery unit GP of Rmb 150/kWh [5] Summary by Sections Unit GP Expansion - CATL's unit GP is projected to rise from Rmb 152/kWh in 2025E to Rmb 169/kWh in 2030E, indicating a path for unit GP expansion [5] Market Share - CATL is expected to maintain a global market share of around 40% through 2025E-2030E, aided by consolidation in the domestic market and strong international positioning [5] Product Launch Impact - The introduction of new EV models, particularly from Xiaomi, is likely to enhance CATL's battery sales, with significant contributions from the Qilin battery [5] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a 25% EPS CAGR for CATL from 2024 to 2030, driven by robust growth and improved product mix [5]