REVODE161

Search documents
海正生材:产销量稳步增长,行业竞争加剧导致盈利承压-20250512
Orient Securities· 2025-05-12 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.75 CNY based on a 2025 comparable company average P/E ratio of 43 times [2][3]. Core Views - The domestic polylactic acid (PLA) industry is facing intensified competition, leading to downward pressure on product prices and consequently affecting profit margins. The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected earnings per share of 0.25, 0.32, and 0.42 CNY respectively [2][9]. - Despite achieving record sales volumes, the company's profitability is under pressure due to price declines in PLA products. The company is focusing on increasing production efficiency and exploring new applications, particularly in the rapidly growing 3D printing sector, where PLA resin sales are expected to increase significantly [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 753 million CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 1,030 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 44 million CNY in 2023 to 36 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 52 million CNY in 2025, indicating a volatile profit trajectory [7][9]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 13.0% in 2025, with net profit margins improving gradually to 5.0% by 2025 [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the PLA import pressure may ease due to recent tariff changes affecting imports from the U.S., which could reduce the overall import volume of PLA into China [9]. - The company is expected to continue developing new products and applications to enhance competitiveness, particularly in the 3D printing market, which has shown robust demand growth [9].