Rare earth ore and magnet with U.S. flag and mine site, highlighting critical minerals policy and supply chain security. Key Points Rare earth stocks like MP Materials, Energy Fuels, and Lynas Rare Earths are rebounding in 2026, supported by domestic production strategies and U.S. government backing. MP Materials is advancing its DoD-backed magnet facility; Energy Fuels is expanding into nuclear fuel; Lynas is gaining from stable revenues and strategic partnerships. Technical indicators and analyst tre ...

Core Insights - Mongolia, with 31 million tons of rare earth reserves, is caught between China and Russia, seeking to leverage its position but facing significant challenges in trade and logistics [1][3][7] - The country has signed contracts with the U.S. for rare earth mining, but lacks the necessary infrastructure and technology to fulfill these agreements, leading to potential losses [3][9] Group 1: Resource and Trade Dynamics - Mongolia's rare earth reserves account for nearly 20% of global supply, making it a strategic player in the rare earth market [3] - Despite the potential, Mongolia's reliance on China for 85% of its trade and logistical challenges hinder its ability to capitalize on its resources [3][7] - Recent reports indicate that Mongolia's rare earth orders are unfulfilled due to its inability to meet purity standards required for export [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Consequences - Mongolia's attempts to negotiate higher transit fees for pipelines have strained relations with China and Russia, leading to a decision to reroute gas pipelines away from Mongolia [4][6] - The new pipeline route through Kazakhstan will eliminate Mongolia's expected transit revenue, which could amount to $2-3 billion annually [4][6] - This situation reflects the broader implications of U.S. strategies in global markets, where reliance on technology and resources from China poses significant challenges [6][9] Group 3: Lessons and Future Outlook - Mongolia's experience illustrates the risks of attempting to play multiple sides in geopolitical conflicts without adequate support or alternatives [7] - The current state of Mongolia's rare earth resources, now left unutilized, highlights the consequences of overreaching ambitions without the necessary infrastructure [9]