Middle Coast Investing, an investment advisor firm, released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The third quarter was favorable for Middle Coast Investing. Its collective portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 and is ahead of benchmarks year to date. In Q3 2025, the US Portfolios returned 9.6% compared to 7.8% for the S&P 500. It’s Core U.S. portfolios returned 10% while the Russell 2000 returned 12%, the S&P 600 returned 8.7% and the Nasdaq generated 11.2% for ...

Core Viewpoint - GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. reported a decline in total revenues for the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year decrease of 14.2% to RMB 585.1 million (US$ 81.7 million) due to reduced hotel and restaurant revenues [3][4][8]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for the first half of 2025 were RMB 585.1 million (US$ 81.7 million), a 14.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [3][8]. - Hotel revenues decreased by 9.5% year-over-year to RMB 488.0 million (US$ 68.1 million) [4][8]. - Restaurant revenues saw a significant decline of 31.6% year-over-year to RMB 97.7 million (US$ 13.6 million) [5][8]. - Income from operations was RMB 91.5 million (US$ 12.8 million), down from RMB 156.7 million in the first half of 2024 [8][16]. - Net income increased to RMB 198.8 million (US$ 27.7 million) from RMB 119.6 million in the first half of 2024, with a net margin of 34.0% [18][22]. Operational Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated 4,509 hotels with 321,977 rooms and 183 restaurants [8][33]. - The company opened 138 hotels and had a pipeline of 1,245 hotels under development [8][33]. - The average daily room rate (ADR) decreased to RMB 157 in Q1 2025, down 6.9% from RMB 169 in Q1 2024 [8][16]. - The occupancy rate was 64.0% in Q1 2025, down from 67.8% in Q1 2024 [8][16]. Cost Management - Total operating costs decreased by 10.2% year-over-year to RMB 370.3 million (US$ 51.7 million) [10][12]. - Selling and marketing expenses were reduced by 19.6% to RMB 27.5 million (US$ 3.8 million) [12][13]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by 12.6% to RMB 90.2 million (US$ 12.6 million) [14][15]. Guidance and Future Outlook - The company adjusted its revenue guidance for the hotel business to a decrease of 10% to 13% year-over-year due to the impact of hotel closures and strategic adjustments [26]. Dividend Distribution - The board approved a cash dividend of US$ 0.06 per ordinary share, payable to shareholders on record as of October 31, 2025 [27].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents opportunities for contrarian investors, particularly in non-tech stocks that have seen significant sell-offs despite overall market highs [1][11]. Group 1: Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) - Sprouts Farmers Market has experienced a decline of approximately 35% since June, with its stock hitting a relative strength index (RSI) below 18, marking a multi-year low [3][4]. - Despite the stock's decline, Sprouts has reported strong fundamentals, with recent quarterly revenue and EPS exceeding consensus expectations, and comparable store sales showing significant growth [4]. - The company has initiated a $1 billion share repurchase program, indicating management's belief in the stock's value at current levels [4]. - Analyst ratings have been upgraded, with Wells Fargo setting a price target of $180 and Evercore ISI suggesting a target of $190, indicating potential upside of over 50% from current levels [5]. Group 2: Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) - Darden Restaurants has seen its shares drop by 20% since June, exacerbated by a disappointing Q1 earnings report that led to a further 10% decline [6][7]. - The stock's RSI has fallen to 20, its lowest in over five years, but analysts believe that the worst may already be priced in [7]. - Major financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Evercore ISI have reiterated their Buy ratings, citing Darden's scale, pricing flexibility, and cost discipline as strengths for future growth [8]. - Updated price targets for Darden now reach as high as $240, suggesting nearly 30% upside from current levels, with signs of consolidation following the recent sell-off [8][9]. Group 3: Macro Environment - The broader market context is favorable, with falling interest rates and major indices near record highs, creating a risk-on sentiment among investors [11]. - Both Sprouts and Darden are positioned as attractive opportunities for investors seeking asymmetric upside in the current market landscape [11].

Core Viewpoint - Cracker Barrel is experiencing a decline in restaurant traffic following a controversial logo change, which has led to a revised financial outlook for the upcoming fiscal years [1][5]. Group 1: Traffic and Revenue Impact - Traffic for the first half of August decreased by approximately 1% [1] - Following the logo change on August 19, traffic declined by about 8%, with expectations of a further decline of 7% to 8% if trends continue [2][5] - Total revenue for the quarter was reported at $868 million, reflecting a 4.4% increase [2] Group 2: Logo Change and Public Response - The company reverted to its original 'Old Timer' logo after significant public backlash against the new design [3][4] - The original logo features a southern man in a rocking chair, which was removed in the new design that faced mockery from fans [3] Group 3: Financial Outlook Adjustments - The company is adjusting its financial outlook for fiscal 2026 and has withdrawn guidance for 2027, now projecting total revenue for 2025 to be between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion [5] - Wall Street had anticipated revenue of around $3.52 billion for fiscal year 2026 [5] Group 4: Future Plans and Investments - Cracker Barrel is planning to invest in public relations and marketing to mitigate the impact of the recent events [6] - The company is set to open two additional stores in 2025, although specific locations have not been disclosed [6] - Leadership expresses optimism about regaining momentum from the previous fiscal year [6] Group 5: Stock Performance - Following the earnings release, the company's stock fell approximately 10% and was down roughly 2% by the next trading day [7]

Company Overview - Portillo's stock has experienced a decline, currently trading near all-time lows after an initial surge post-IPO in October 2021 [1][4] - The company has a loyal customer base in Chicago and is attempting to expand nationwide [2] Growth Potential - At a current price of approximately $7.60 per share, an investment of $1,000 would purchase 131 shares, with a target price of $38 per share representing a fivefold increase [4] - The company's P/E ratio is around 18, significantly lower than Chipotle's 39, suggesting potential for multiple expansion [5] Financial Projections - Portillo's has revised its 2025 revenue growth projection down to 5% to 7%, from a previous estimate of 10% to 12% [6] - The slowdown in financial growth may reduce the likelihood of achieving a higher P/E ratio, impacting investor sentiment [6] Expansion Plans - Despite the slowdown, Portillo's plans to add 12 new locations in the second half of the year, increasing from the current 95 restaurants [7] - The addition of only one location in the first half raises concerns about the feasibility of the expansion plan and the potential for a more significant slowdown than anticipated [8]

Core Insights - Cava Group (CAVA) reported revenue of $280.62 million for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.2%, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $286.56 million, resulting in a surprise of -2.07% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.16, slightly down from $0.17 a year ago, but exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.13, leading to an EPS surprise of +23.08% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Same Restaurant Sales Growth was reported at 2.1%, below the average estimate of 5.9% based on eight analysts [4] - The total number of CAVA restaurants remained at 398, matching the average estimate from seven analysts [4] - CAVA opened 16 new restaurants, including converted Zoes Kitchen locations, surpassing the average estimate of 14 [4] - Occupancy as a percentage of CAVA Revenue was 6.8%, slightly below the estimated 6.9% [4] - Revenue from CAVA restaurants was $278.25 million, compared to the average estimate of $284.14 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +20.3% [4] - Restaurant-Level profit for CAVA was reported at $73.26 million, below the average estimate of $74.79 million [4] Stock Performance - Cava shares have returned -8.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - CAVA Group, Inc. is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on August 12, with analysts expecting earnings of 13 cents per share, a decrease from 17 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The projected quarterly revenue for CAVA Group is $285.23 million, up from $233.5 million a year earlier [1] - CAVA opened its first restaurant in Pittsburgh on August 8, located at 3619 Forbes Avenue [2] Group 2 - CAVA Group shares experienced a decline of 3.2%, closing at $82.30 on the previous Monday [2] - UBS analyst Dennis Geiger maintained a Neutral rating and reduced the price target from $112 to $96 [7] - Barclays analyst Jeffrey Bernstein kept an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $90 to $91 [7] - Keybanc analyst Christopher Carril initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $100 [7] - JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe maintained an Overweight rating but lowered the price target from $115 to $95 [7] - Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull maintained a Buy rating and significantly cut the price target from $175 to $125 [7]

Group 1 - The upcoming report from Red Robin (RRGB) is expected to show a quarterly loss of -$0.25 per share, which is an increase of 47.9% compared to the same period last year [1] - Analysts forecast revenues of $285.22 million, indicating a decline of 5% year over year [1] - There has been a 4.3% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' reassessment of their initial forecasts [2] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that 'Revenues - Restaurant revenue' will be $280.07 million, a decrease of 4.9% from the prior-year quarter [5] - The projected 'Number of restaurants - Franchised' is expected to reach 90, down from 92 in the same quarter last year [5] - The 'Number of restaurants - Total' is forecasted to be 486, compared to 503 a year ago [5] Group 3 - The forecast for 'Number of restaurants - Company-owned' is 397, down from 411 in the previous year [6] - Red Robin shares have decreased by 5.5% in the past month, contrasting with a +1.9% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6] - With a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), Red Robin is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [6]

Core Insights - Groupe Partouche reported a solid growth in turnover for the first half of 2025, with a 5.7% increase to €233.3 million compared to €220.6 million in the same period of 2024 [3][9] - The company is making progress towards exiting the Financière Partouche safeguard plan, with recent court approval for modifications to the plan [5] Financial Performance - The first half of 2025 showed a turnover increase of 5.7% to €233.3 million, driven by a 3.1% rise in Net Gaming Revenue (NGR) to €185.3 million [3][10] - The second quarter of 2025 turnover rose by 4.9% to €106.9 million, confirming the positive trend from the first quarter, which saw a 6.5% increase [3][9] - Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for the second quarter increased by 2.8% to €178.7 million, with NGR up by 2.0% to €83.1 million [4][10] Revenue Breakdown - Non-gaming activities contributed significantly, generating €24.5 million in revenue, a 15.9% increase compared to €21.1 million in Q2 2024 [4][11] - In France, GGR grew by 3.7% to €160.6 million, supported by a 2.7% increase in attendance [8] - The GGR for slot machines increased by 2.8% to €128.0 million, while electronic table games saw an 8.5% rise to €19.7 million [8] Company Overview - Groupe Partouche, established in 1973, operates 41 casinos and employs nearly 4,050 people, positioning itself as a market leader in Europe [7] - The company is listed on Euronext Paris and is known for its innovative approach to gaming [7]

Group 1 - Red Robin reported revenue of $392.35 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +1.28% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $387.4 million [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.19, a significant improvement from -$0.80 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +133.33% compared to the consensus estimate of -$0.57 [1] - Over the past month, Red Robin's shares have returned +14.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +6.7% change, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] Group 2 - The total number of Red Robin restaurants is 491, slightly below the average estimate of 497 based on three analysts [4] - Comparable restaurant revenue showed a year-over-year change of 3.1%, matching the average estimate from three analysts [4] - Restaurant revenue was reported at $385.81 million, exceeding the three-analyst average estimate of $376.61 million, with a year-over-year change of +1.9% [4]