Core Insights - TJX reported revenue of $13.11 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.1% and a surprise of +0.67% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.02 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) was $0.92, slightly down from $0.93 in the same quarter last year, with an EPS surprise of +2.22% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.90 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Comparable store sales increased by 3% overall, slightly below the five-analyst average estimate of 3.2% [4] - HomeGoods comparable store sales rose by 4%, compared to the estimated 4.2% [4] - Marmaxx comparable store sales grew by 2%, below the average estimate of 3.2% [4] - TJX International (Europe & Australia) saw a 5% increase in comparable store sales, exceeding the 3.5% estimate [4] - Comparable store sales in TJX Canada increased by 5%, surpassing the 4.3% estimate [4] Store Expansion and Sales - The company opened 36 new stores, exceeding the average estimate of 30 [4] - Total number of stores reached 5,121, slightly above the average estimate of 5,115 [4] - T.J. Maxx in the U.S. maintained 1,338 stores, matching the average estimate [4] - Net sales for Marmaxx were reported at $8.05 billion, slightly below the $8.09 billion estimate, representing a year-over-year increase of +3.9% [4] - Net sales for TJX International were $1.66 billion, exceeding the $1.60 billion estimate, with a year-over-year change of +8.1% [4] - Net sales for TJX Canada were $1.14 billion, aligning with the estimate, reflecting a +2.8% year-over-year change [4] - HomeGoods net sales reached $2.25 billion, surpassing the $2.21 billion estimate, with an +8.4% year-over-year change [4] Stock Performance - TJX shares returned +7.3% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a short-term investment focus on specific companies across various sectors, highlighting preferred and risk names based on tariff impacts [7][30]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the Trump administration's tariffs on nine major sectors, emphasizing the direct and indirect impacts on individual companies and their stock performance [6][30]. - The automotive sector is expected to face significant price increases due to tariffs, with an estimated 11.5% rise in US auto prices, translating to approximately $5,100 per vehicle [9][17]. - The report identifies key companies within each sector that are likely to be affected by tariffs, providing a detailed analysis of their potential performance [4][30]. Sector Summaries Autos and Auto Parts - Tariffs on automobiles could lead to a gross impact on operating profit ranging from 30% to over 100% for various automakers, with Toyota and Honda facing a manageable impact while Nissan and Mazda are at higher risk [4][9]. - Focus is placed on Toyota Motor for its resilience and ability to raise prices, while Bridgestone is noted for its high local production ratio [30][31]. Banks - The impact of tariffs on banks remains uncertain, but concerns over worst-case scenarios have eased, with a potential downside risk of slightly over 10% to sector earnings forecasts in a bearish scenario [4][33]. - Japan Post Bank is highlighted as a relatively stable option amidst tariff uncertainties [4][33]. Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - Major pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Astellas are expected to be heavily impacted by tariffs, while companies with lower US sales ratios may benefit from tariff avoidance [4][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased costs of goods sold (CoGS) affecting operating profits for medical device companies [4]. Technology - The technology sector's tariff impact is complex, with companies like NEC and Fujitsu expected to perform well due to limited exposure to tariffs [5][30]. - Sony Group is under close observation for potential price hikes on its products, particularly the PlayStation 5 [5][30]. Chemicals and Steel - In the chemicals sector, companies like Nippon Paint are expected to benefit from lower raw material prices, while the steel sector is anticipated to experience limited direct tariff impacts [5][30]. - Kobe Steel is noted for its resilience due to a significant earnings contribution from its machinery business [5][30]. Retail - The retail sector is advised to focus on drugstores and discount retailers, with companies like Asics and Fast Retailing facing risks from declining sales due to high tariff exposure [5][30]. - Seven & i Holdings is highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to its significant exposure to the US market [5][30].

National Summary - Economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December, with consumer spending rising moderately and strong holiday sales reported [11] - Construction activity decreased overall due to high costs for materials and financing, while manufacturing saw a slight decline with some manufacturers stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs [11] - Residential real estate activity remained unchanged, high mortgage rates continued to suppress demand, while commercial real estate sales edged up [11] - Nonfinancial services sector grew slightly, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and transportation, although truck freight volumes were down [11] - Agricultural conditions remained weak with lower farm incomes and weather-related challenges, while energy activity was mixed [11] Labor Markets - Employment ticked up slightly, with six Districts reporting increases and six reporting no change, particularly in healthcare and construction sectors [12] - Wage growth picked up to a moderate pace in most Districts, although some reports indicated easing wage pressures [12] Prices - Prices increased modestly overall, with growth rates ranging from flat to moderate, and input costs also rose, particularly for health insurance [14] - Contacts expected prices to continue rising in 2025, with potential for higher tariffs contributing to price increases [14] Highlights by Federal Reserve District Boston - Economic activity increased slightly, with modest increases in tourism and home sales, while prices remained mostly steady [15] New York - Economic activity increased slightly, with moderate growth in consumer spending and a slight improvement in commercial real estate markets [16] Philadelphia - Business activity continued to grow slightly, with auto sales leading consumer spending, although manufacturing reported a slight decline [17] Cleveland - Business activity grew modestly, with higher-than-anticipated retail sales, while manufacturing demand remained soft [18] Richmond - The regional economy grew modestly, with increased consumer spending and a slight uptick in commercial real estate activity [19] Atlanta - Economic activity expanded modestly, with steady employment and moderate growth in consumer spending and auto sales [20] Chicago - Economic activity increased slightly, with modest increases in consumer spending and employment, while manufacturing and business spending decreased slightly [21] St. Louis - Economic activity continued to expand slightly, with positive holiday sales reports [22] Minneapolis - Economic activity grew slightly, with moderate wage growth and a positive outlook for the year ahead [23] Kansas City - Economic activity expanded slightly, led by consumer spending, with expectations for growth in hiring and price growth [24][25] Dallas - The economy expanded moderately, with growth in manufacturing and nonfinancial services, while home sales increased slightly [26] San Francisco - Economic activity expanded slightly, with stable employment levels and modest growth in retail sales [27] Sector-Specific Insights Retail and Tourism - Retail contacts reported slight increases in revenues, while tourism activity experienced modest growth, particularly in air travel [32] Manufacturing - Manufacturing sales were flat on average, with some firms reporting unexpected softness in demand [33] IT and Software Services - Demand for IT and software services remained stable, with expectations for strong revenue growth in early 2025 [34] Commercial Real Estate - Commercial real estate activity was mostly flat, with elevated long-term interest rates limiting transactions [36] Residential Real Estate - Home sales rose modestly, supported by improved inventories, although high mortgage rates continued to suppress demand [37]