Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to report Q4 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, with Wall Street anticipating an EPS of $1.32 and revenue of approximately $9.6 billion, reflecting 21% year-over-year growth in EPS and 25% in revenue [1] - AMD shares have increased by 115% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader technology sector [1] Financial Expectations - Expected gross margin is 54.5% [1] - Data center revenue is projected to exceed $4 billion [1] - Consensus revenue is around $9.6 billion, with EPS consensus at $1.32 [1] - A meaningful earnings beat would require EPS of at least $1.40 and revenue exceeding $9.8 billion [1] Historical Performance - AMD has beaten or met earnings estimates in six of the past seven quarters, with an average surprise of approximately 8% [1] - In Q3 2025, AMD reported a 10.3% earnings surprise, with earnings of $0.75 compared to an estimate of $0.68 [1] - Q2 2025 saw an exceptional 1,180% earnings beat, with actual earnings of $0.54 against an expected loss [1] Recent Developments - Management guided Q4 revenue to approximately $9.6 billion with a gross margin of 54.5% [1] - The client and gaming segments generated $4 billion in combined revenue, up 73% year-over-year, driven by record Ryzen processor sales [1] - Data center revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 22% year-over-year, fueled by demand for EPYC processors and Instinct AI accelerators from major clients like OpenAI, Oracle, and IBM [1] Analyst Sentiment - HSBC raised its price target for AMD to $335 from $300, citing structural acceleration in server CPU demand driven by AI workloads [1] - Zacks Investment Research noted AMD's stock performance of 107.1% over the past year, compared to NVIDIA's 63.8%, indicating AMD's competitive position in AI accelerators [1] - The average analyst price target is $289.23, suggesting a 17% upside from current levels, with 41 out of 53 analysts rating it as Buy or Strong Buy [1] Potential Stock Movements - Bull case triggers include positive management commentary on MI500 series GPU ramp and data center revenue surpassing $4.5 billion [1] - Bear case triggers involve cautious 2026 guidance and revenue misses below $9.4 billion, particularly in the Data Center segment [1] - Wild cards include potential China export restrictions and broader concerns about AI infrastructure spending [1] Market Confidence - The options market indicates a 91.5% probability that AMD will beat consensus estimates, reflecting strong investor confidence [1] - Analysts are focused on sustaining data center revenue growth above $4.3 billion, which is critical for justifying AMD's premium valuation [1] Valuation Context - AMD trades at 37.31x forward earnings, a premium to the semiconductor sector average, justified by a 60.3% year-over-year earnings growth [1] - The company's PEG ratio of 0.51 suggests that the growth rate supports current multiples, although any guidance disappointment could lead to multiple compression [1]

Quick Read Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 3. Wall Street expects $1.32 EPS on $9.6B revenue. AMD shares gained 112% over the past year. Q3 Data Center revenue hit $4.3B up 22% YoY driven by AI accelerators. HSBC raised its AMD price target to $335 citing structural acceleration in server CPU demand from agentic AI workloads. Investors rethink 'hands off' investing and decide to start making real money Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) reports FY2025 full-year ...

Financial Performance - AMD reported a record first quarter revenue of $74 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase[17] - GAAP gross margin was 50%, up from 47% in Q1 2024[21] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 54%, up from 52% in Q1 2024[21] - GAAP operating income increased significantly to $806 million, compared to $36 million in Q1 2024[24] - Non-GAAP operating income increased 57% year-over-year to $1779 billion[30] - GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $044, up from $007 in Q1 2024[27] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $096, a 55% increase year-over-year[27] Segment Results - Data Center segment revenue increased 57% year-over-year to $37 billion, with an operating income of $932 million[31, 35] - Client and Gaming segment revenue increased 28% year-over-year to $29 billion, with an operating income of $496 million[31, 36] - Embedded segment revenue decreased 3% year-over-year to $823 million, with an operating income of $328 million[31, 37] Acquisition and Outlook - AMD completed the acquisition of ZT Systems on March 31, 2025[16, 34] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be approximately $74 billion, plus or minus $300 million[38]

Core Viewpoint - The company Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is becoming an attractive investment opportunity due to its recent performance and growth potential in the AI and data center markets [2][8]. Group 1: Growth Opportunities - AMD's data center segment revenue grew by 94% year over year in 2024, contributing to about 50% of the company's total revenue [3]. - The data center industry is projected to grow by 140% by 2030, providing significant opportunities for AMD [4]. - AMD is also a leading manufacturer of CPUs for PCs and has recently launched new models from its Ryzen processor line, along with developing GPUs for gaming and chips for autonomous vehicles [5]. Group 2: Financial Health - AMD has a strong balance sheet with over $5 billion in cash and minimal debt, allowing for flexibility in pursuing growth opportunities [6]. - Recent financial results show a 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, a 300 basis point expansion in adjusted gross margin, and a 42% increase in adjusted EPS [6]. Group 3: Market Position and Historical Performance - Since CEO Lisa Su took over in 2014, AMD has significantly improved its market position, doubling its CPU market share from 11% to 24% by 2024 [7]. - Under Su's leadership, AMD has achieved a total return of over 3,000% in just over a decade, with a market cap now 70% greater than Intel's [8]. - The stock is currently trading at 23 times forward earnings, approximately 50% below its 52-week high, indicating a potential buying opportunity [8].