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中密控股(300470):逆势拓局 费用优化并购提质
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 02:44
Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 426 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.73%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 91 million yuan, down 6.89% year-on-year and 2.52% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in Q3 revenue was primarily due to a slowdown in project delivery in the mechanical seal and special valve segments, with some business expected to materialize in Q4. Profit decline was mainly impacted by share-based payment amortization [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its comprehensive product layout and ongoing capacity expansion, which is expected to support continued operational improvement [1] Financial Performance - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 44.01%, down 3.60 percentage points year-on-year. Q3 gross margin was 43.96%, a decrease of 4.46 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to weak downstream demand and a higher proportion of low-margin incremental business [2] - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 19.34%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective expense management [2] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its market presence despite challenges in the petrochemical sector, leveraging its competitive advantages and aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative for international growth [3] - In February 2025, the company completed the acquisition of German KSGmbH, enhancing its control over core raw materials. It also plans to continue dividend distributions to improve investor returns [3] - The company is focusing on capacity expansion and R&D breakthroughs, with ongoing digitalization efforts and successful product launches, including 18 new patents [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the lack of significant recovery in downstream market demand, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards by 2.47%, 3.61%, and 4.30%, respectively, with projected profits of 427 million, 491 million, and 561 million yuan [4] - The target price is set at 47.20 yuan, based on a 20 times PE valuation for 2026, reflecting the current market conditions [4]