Group 1 - Dandong is actively promoting project construction, with significant progress in major projects such as Longqiang Technology's mechanical seals and the Liaoning University of Technology's smart manufacturing training base [1] - The city has prioritized investment attraction, conducting over 483 investment promotion activities, a 125.7% increase year-on-year, focusing on key industries and regions [1][2] - In the first half of the year, Dandong attracted 610 domestic investment projects, with 79 projects exceeding 100 million yuan, and a project landing rate of 83% [2] Group 2 - Dandong is implementing a "summer offensive" strategy to accelerate project signing, landing, and construction, focusing on key industrial development areas [3] - The city aims to shift from "result scheduling" to "process control" during the summer months, emphasizing the importance of project conversion and completion [3]

Core Insights - The company, Zhongmi Holdings, has celebrated its 10th anniversary since its listing on June 12, 2015, with a market capitalization growth from 2.657 billion yuan to 7.627 billion yuan, indicating not only scale expansion but also continuous accumulation of technical strength [1][5] - The company has maintained a stable growth momentum in recent years, despite the overall market fluctuations [1] Business Overview - Zhongmi Holdings specializes in the design, research and development, manufacturing, and sales of various mechanical seals, providing comprehensive technical services including consulting, training, installation, and maintenance [3] - The main products include mechanical seals and dry gas seals along with control systems, with mechanical seals accounting for the highest revenue share at 30.17%, followed by dry gas seals and control systems at 26.59% [3] Financial Performance - In 2015, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82 million yuan, which increased to 392 million yuan by the end of the latest complete fiscal year in 2024, representing a cumulative profit growth of 378.08% [3] - The company has not reported any losses in the past ten years, with net profit growth occurring in 8 out of those years, equating to an 80% success rate [3] - Revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 924 million yuan in 2020 to 1.567 billion yuan in 2024, with a double-digit compound annual growth rate [3] - Net profit has also shown an upward trend, rising from 211 million yuan in 2020 to 392 million yuan in 2024, with the most significant increase occurring in 2021 [3] Market Capitalization - Since its listing, Zhongmi Holdings' market capitalization has increased by 1.87 times, reflecting investor confidence in the company's long-term development [5] - The peak market capitalization reached 11.419 billion yuan on February 18, 2021, with the stock price rising to 54.85 yuan, while the latest closing price on June 11 was 36.64 yuan, resulting in a current market capitalization of 7.627 billion yuan [5][6] - Compared to its peak, the market capitalization has decreased by 3.792 billion yuan, representing a 33.20% decline [6]

Core Insights - The company has seen a shift in its international business model, with increasing direct communication and collaboration with foreign end-users [1][4] - The market space for the company's international business along the "Belt and Road" initiative countries accounts for approximately one-third of the total international market for mechanical seals [2][4] - The company's primary export regions include the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa, and it has not been directly affected by tariffs [3][4] - The company is the only domestic enterprise with performance in nuclear main pump mechanical seals, but there has been no significant progress in its nuclear power business [3][4] Company Performance - As of May 30, 2025, the company's stock closed at 35.85 yuan, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 7.463 billion yuan, ranking 43rd in the general equipment sector and 2068th in the A-share market [1] Risk Management - The company serves major state-owned enterprises and well-known private enterprises, maintaining a strong focus on customer credit ratings to mitigate bad debt risks [2] - The company has implemented a robust collection strategy and regularly reviews aging accounts receivable to enhance cash flow [2] Strategic Outlook - The company is optimistic about future international market growth, particularly in regions rich in oil and gas resources along the "Belt and Road" [2] - The company is prepared to seize new project opportunities as they arise, although growth in international business may slow compared to previous years due to geopolitical factors [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.567 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.21% [1][4]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are projected to be 48.34% and 25.10%, respectively, with slight declines compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has shown stable management of operating expenses, with a net operating cash flow of 322 million yuan in 2024, up 3.03% year-on-year [1]. - The international business segment is rapidly growing, with a revenue of approximately 200 million yuan in 2024, marking a growth of about 50% [2]. - The company has increased its market share in domestic large petrochemical projects, contributing to the growth of its incremental business [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a 14.40% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, up 13.21% [1][5]. - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 424 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.39%, with a net profit of 122 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.42% [1]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be 410 million yuan, a 21.99% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 94 million yuan, up 13.84% [1]. Business Segments - The equipment manufacturing segment generated a revenue of 658 million yuan in 2024, growing 17.68% year-on-year, primarily driven by international business growth [2]. - The rubber and plastic sealing segment achieved a revenue of 180 million yuan, a 26.79% increase, with a gross margin of 40.34% [3]. - The special valve segment reported a revenue of 141 million yuan, up 37.28%, with a gross margin of 49.52% [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s profitability is expected to decline slightly due to an increase in the proportion of incremental business and a slight decrease in the gross margin of existing businesses [1][2]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 419 million yuan, 484 million yuan, and 558 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [4][5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bookings grew 18% year-over-year to $1,200 million, while revenue increased by 5% [6] - Adjusted gross margins expanded by 80 basis points to 33.5%, and adjusted operating margins were 12.8%, resulting in impressive incremental margins of over 50% [6][23] - Adjusted earnings per share was $0.72 for the quarter, an increase of nearly 25% compared to the prior year [6][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The aftermarket business saw record bookings of almost $690 million, marking the fourth consecutive quarter above $600 million [8][10] - FPD (Flowserve Pump Division) delivered bookings growth of 21% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margins of 34.7%, an increase of 180 basis points [25] - FCD (Flowserve Control Division) experienced bookings growth of 10% and sales growth of 14%, with aftermarket bookings increasing by 19% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nuclear bookings exceeded $100 million for the third consecutive quarter, with power bookings up more than 45% year-over-year [10] - The company reported strong asset utilization in large process industries, with maintenance spending continuing as expected [16] - April bookings remained healthy across both run rate and aftermarket business [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on mitigating tariff impacts through regional manufacturing and supply chain optimization [12][14] - The Flowserve business system is being leveraged to drive consistency and results across the organization, with expectations of margin expansion from the portfolio excellence program by 2027 [20][21] - The company is maintaining a critical eye on M&A opportunities to create long-term value [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate challenges and maintain strong performance [7][22] - The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting organic growth of 3% to 5% and adjusted earnings per share of $3.1 to $3.3 [33] - Management noted that while the end markets remain healthy, there is potential for a slowdown in the second half of 2025 due to tariff uncertainties [45] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $53 million of shares year-to-date at an average cost of $45 per share [31] - Cash from operations was a $50 million use of cash in the quarter, driven by higher temporary working capital requirements [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of bookings and outlook for the second half - Management indicated strong aftermarket bookings and a healthy project funnel, but acknowledged potential project deferrals due to macro uncertainties [39][46] Question: Guidance for Q2 and impact of tariffs - Management expects Q2 results to be similar or slightly better than Q1, with some mix headwinds anticipated [48][50] Question: Competitive footprint and pricing power - Management highlighted a competitive advantage in regional manufacturing and noted that pricing actions have been well-received [54][60] Question: Visibility into project pipeline - Management confirmed strong visibility into project orders, particularly in the nuclear sector, with limited project pushouts observed [88][93] Question: Mitigation of tariff impacts - Management outlined strategies to offset tariff impacts through pricing and supply chain initiatives, expecting to mitigate the full $90 to $100 million impact [96][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bookings grew 18% year-over-year to $1,200 million, while revenue increased by 5% [4] - Adjusted gross margins expanded by 80 basis points to 33.5%, and adjusted operating margins reached 12.8%, resulting in incremental margins of over 50% [4] - Adjusted earnings per share was $0.72, reflecting a nearly 25% increase compared to the previous year [4][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aftermarket bookings reached a record of almost $690 million, marking the fourth consecutive quarter above $600 million [6] - Nuclear bookings exceeded $100 million for the third consecutive quarter, with power bookings up more than 45% year-over-year [7] - FPD segment saw bookings growth of 21% and adjusted operating margin of 17.7%, while FCD segment experienced bookings growth of 10% and sales growth of 14% [22][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong asset utilization in large process industries, with maintenance spending continuing as expected [14] - April bookings remained healthy across run rate and aftermarket business, with limited project deferrals observed in select industries [15] - The backlog stood at $2,900 million, providing a level of certainty for future revenues [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on navigating the current tariff environment while building on strong first-quarter results [5] - Emphasis on the 8020 program to reduce complexity and improve margins, with expectations of 200 basis points of margin expansion by 2027 [18] - The company is leveraging its global footprint to optimize work locations and mitigate tariff impacts [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute at a high level despite macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - The company is monitoring customer behavior closely, with expectations of continued capital spending unless the macro environment worsens [42] - Overall visibility into project pipelines remains strong, particularly in the nuclear sector, which provides long-term revenue assurance [90][92] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $53 million of shares year-to-date at an average cost of $45 per share, viewing its share price as undervalued [27] - Adjusted primary working capital as a percentage of sales increased to 29.8%, with expectations for significant improvement in cash flow and working capital efficiency [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of bookings and outlook for the second half - Management noted strong aftermarket bookings and a healthy project funnel, but acknowledged potential uncertainties due to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [36][42] Question: Guidance for Q2 and impact of tariffs - Management indicated that Q2 results are expected to be similar or slightly better than Q1, with some mix headwinds anticipated [45][48] Question: Competitive footprint and pricing power - The company highlighted its regional manufacturing advantages and noted that pricing actions have been well-received, with expectations for continued pricing power [52][60] Question: Visibility into project pipeline and potential pushouts - Management confirmed strong visibility into project pipelines, particularly in nuclear, with limited signs of project pushouts at this time [88][90] Question: Mitigation of tariff impacts - The company plans to offset tariff impacts through pricing actions and supply chain repositioning, with expectations to mitigate the full $90 to $100 million impact [94][96]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 中密控股（300470.SZ） 优于大市 经营稳健，国际业务快速发展 2024 年收入同比增长 14.40%，归母净利润同比增长 13.21%。公司 2024 年 实现营收 15.67 亿元，同比增长 14.40%；实现归母净利润 3.92 亿元，同比 增长 13.21%，在下游景气度较低的背景下，公司业绩保持稳健增长。2024 年毛利率/净利率分别为 48.34%/25.10%，同比变动-1.30/-0.24 个 pct，盈 利能力下降主要系：1）增量业务占比增加；2）存量业务毛利率略有下降。 公司期间费用整体稳定，费用管控良好。2024 年公司实现经营性现金流净额 3.22 亿元，同比增长 3.03%。分季度看，2024Q4 实现营收 4.24 亿元，同比 增长 11.39%，归母净利润 1.22 亿元，同比增长 23.42%，四季度业绩增长主 要系年底部分利润较好的国内外大项目集中交付。2025Q1 实现营收 4.10 亿 元，同比增长 21.99%，归母净利润 0.94 亿元，同比增长 13.84%。 国际业务高增，存量业务稳健。增量业务方面，2024 年公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Zhongmi Holdings (300470) has shown a steady growth in its financial performance, with significant increases in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2025, while also experiencing changes in shareholder structure and capital flow dynamics [4][5][6]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, Zhongmi Holdings reported a main revenue of 410 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.99% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 94.35 million yuan, up 13.84% year-on-year [4] - The company's debt ratio stands at 15.3%, with investment income of 2.63 million yuan and financial expenses of -1.63 million yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 44.43% [4] Shareholder Dynamics - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 17,500, up by 1,226 from December 31, 2024, marking a growth rate of 7.51% [3] - The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased from 12,800 shares to 11,900 shares, with an average market value of 440,400 yuan per shareholder [3] Capital Flow - On April 25, 2025, the capital flow for Zhongmi Holdings showed a net outflow of 1.89 million yuan from main funds, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 2.18 million yuan, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 286,000 yuan [2][5] Business Segments Performance - The mechanical seal segment has increased its market share in domestic large petrochemical projects, while international business revenue reached 200 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 50% [6] - The rubber and plastic seal segment saw an 8.18% increase in revenue, with net profit rising by 58.67% [6] - The special valve segment experienced a revenue increase of 37.28% and a net profit increase of 108.3% [6] Future Outlook - The growth of international business is expected to slow down in 2025 compared to previous years, despite a significant increase in orders in recent years [6] - The coal chemical sector is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance due to the rapid advancement of national coal chemical projects [6] - Key growth drivers for 2025 include sustained growth in international business, successful market expansion by subsidiaries, and improved internal management efficiency [6] Capital Expenditure Plans - The company's capital expenditure will focus on infrastructure development and acquisitions, with investment decisions being dynamically adjusted based on market conditions [6]