Core Viewpoint - Walmart is a well-managed company with a strong business outlook, but its current valuation is difficult to justify due to specific catalysts that may negatively impact its revenue and profits, such as reductions in SNAP benefits and the use of GLP-1 medications [1][19]. Group 1: SNAP Benefits Impact - Walmart is the largest beneficiary of SNAP benefits, accounting for approximately 25% of total SNAP spending, which affects around 42 million Americans annually [1]. - By 2034, SNAP benefits are projected to decrease by $183 billion, leading to an estimated loss of over $45 billion for Walmart, despite its annual revenue of nearly $700 billion [5]. - Changes in consumer behavior due to SNAP cuts may pressure Walmart's profitability, as customers may opt for cheaper, lower-margin food options [5]. Group 2: GLP-1 Medications Influence - The use of GLP-1 medications is expected to reduce calorie intake significantly, with women reducing intake by 864 to 987 calories and men by 722 to 798 calories daily [6]. - This reduction in food consumption could lead to decreased grocery spending and make dining out more appealing, potentially impacting Walmart's sales [6][8]. - However, some consumers may not change their shopping habits significantly, as food waste remains high in the U.S. [8]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Walmart's historical GAAP P/E ratio is as high as 42, significantly above competitors like Target (11.43) and Kroger (19.20) [10]. - Walmart's revenue growth is stagnating at 5.22%, with a low profit margin of 2.75%, raising concerns about its profitability compared to peers [11]. - Discounted cash flow analysis suggests Walmart's valuation is excessive, requiring a nearly 27% growth rate in free cash flow to justify its current price [13]. Group 4: Competitive Position and Dividend - Walmart's strong position in the retail sector makes it an attractive defensive stock, but its valuation around $100 is considered too high [15]. - The company has a solid dividend growth history, but its forward yield of only 0.96% does not compensate for valuation issues [17]. - Walmart's online business is growing, with a 20% increase in order volume, indicating potential for future profitability [18].