Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting that past performance does not guarantee future results [2][3]. Group 1 - The content is based on personal thoughts and research, and it is not intended as financial or investment advice [2][3]. - The article mentions that the author has no financial interest in the companies discussed, ensuring an unbiased perspective [1][2]. - It is noted that all investments carry risks, including the potential for total loss [2][3]. Group 2 - The article clarifies that the views expressed may not reflect those of the platform as a whole, indicating a diversity of opinions among contributors [3]. - It highlights that the authors may not be licensed or certified, which could affect the reliability of the investment insights provided [3].

Key Strategy - Leveraged Rotation Strategy (LRS) can amplify returns while effectively managing risk by reducing drawdowns and smoothing the investment process [1] - LRS involves using a moving average line as a filter: when the index closing price is above the moving average, investors buy the index with leverage; when it's below, they switch to US Treasury bonds or cash [1] - The strategy uses the moving average of the index, not the leveraged fund itself, as a filter [2] Market Analysis - Leverage can linearly amplify returns and risks, but market behavior isn't always linear; it varies with market volatility [1] - High volatility is detrimental to leverage, while small fluctuations and upward trends favor it [1] - When the S&P 500 index is above its 10-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 156%; below, it's 228% [1] - When the index is above its 200-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 146%; below, it's 269% [1] - Most significant drops occur when the index is below certain key moving averages, with the 20-day moving average being particularly important statistically [1] Performance Metrics - From October 1928 to December 2020, Buy & Hold strategy yielded a 94% annualized return, regular 3x leverage yielded 162%, and 3x LRS using the 200-day moving average yielded 267% [1] - A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in October 1928 would have grown to over $39 million by December 2020, while the 3x LRS strategy would have reached $28 trillion [1] - During the Great Depression, the S&P 500 fell by 86%, but the 3x LRS strategy only fell by 49%; in the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by 55%, while the 3x LRS strategy fell by 31% [1]