Core Viewpoint - 瑞声科技 (02018) has shown a rebound, surpassing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 40.19, with a current price of 40.95, reflecting a 4.2% increase. The technical indicators present a complex pattern, with multiple sell signals but some signs of potential bottoming out [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has found support near the 30-day moving average at 39.47 and the 60-day moving average at 38.38. The technical strength indicator totals 13 points, indicating bearish signals from the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD, while the VR ratio suggests oversold conditions [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 38.3 and 36.7, with a significant psychological resistance at 41. A breakthrough above 41 could lead to a challenge of 42.4. The current probability of an upward movement is 56%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [3]. Investment Opportunities - Recent stock price volatility has created opportunities for structured products. The call warrant (15694) stands out with a leverage of 5.1 times and a strike price of 44.88, suitable for investors optimistic about future price movements while focusing on cost control. Another option, the call warrant (15499), also offers 5.1 times leverage but with a higher strike price of 55.93 and a premium of 41.02%, appealing to more aggressive strategies [6]. - For investors seeking higher leverage, the call warrant (14436) provides 7.5 times leverage, although it comes with a premium of 63.69%. Conversely, bearish investors might consider the put warrant (14757), which has a lower leverage of 1.4 times but the lowest premium, making it a suitable hedging tool [6]. Product Selection Considerations - Investors should consider their risk tolerance, price trend expectations, and holding period when selecting products. High-leverage products offer significant return potential but come with higher risks, while low-premium products incur less time value loss, making them suitable for long-term holding [9].

大多數人認為槓桿是危險的 我過去對槓桿投資也是有很多偏見 不過呢，最近我讀了一篇論文 它徹底改變了我的這種看法 這篇論文的標題叫做 長期槓桿投資 一種系統化的股票風險管理 與回報放大策略 文章的核心觀點用一句話概括 那就是 善用槓桿 它不只是放大利潤 更是風險管理的工具 那麼今天這支影片 我們就來探討一種 被證實是有效可行的 槓桿投資策略 影片的最後 我也會分享我自己的做法 我們通常對槓桿的理解是 使用槓桿 會線性的放大回報和風險 然而，現實的市場行為並不是這樣的 槓桿在不同的市場波動環境下 會體現出不同的風險與回報的特徵 那麼怎麼理解呢 我們來看一個真實的例子 2025年4月初的這幾天 標普500指數經歷了巨大的波動 從波動率指標上 能夠清晰的看到波動放大的這種特徵 從4月3日至4月11日這6天 標普500指數的波動情況是這樣的 第一天，指數下跌5.97% 對應的3倍槓桿下跌17.92% 第二天，指數下跌0.23% 3倍槓桿下跌了0.7% 這樣6個交易日累計下來 標普500指數的回報是負的0.61% 而3倍槓桿的總回報是負的5.68% 是指數跌幅的9.24%倍 3倍槓桿跌出了9倍的效果 這就是所謂的波動性損 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) shows a stable upward trend, with the stock price reaching 401.2 HKD, reflecting a 1.42% increase, and technical indicators suggest a potential for further gains despite being in the overbought zone [1][9]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has broken through all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at 393.4 HKD and the 30-day moving average at 372.1 HKD indicating a bullish alignment [1]. - The MACD indicator remains in a golden cross state, suggesting a strengthening mid-term trend [1]. - The RSI has reached 70, indicating an overbought condition, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 406 HKD, which coincides with current resistance levels, suggesting a possible short-term technical adjustment [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 384 HKD and a stronger support at 360 HKD, while resistance is seen at 406 HKD, with a potential challenge at 418 HKD if broken [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent trading data from June 2 to June 4 shows that while HKEX's stock rose by 0.66%, related derivative products exhibited varying degrees of leverage effects, particularly bull certificates [3]. - HSBC bull certificate 53712 increased by 11% over two days, while Societe Generale bull certificate 54739 rose by 10%, highlighting the advantages of bull certificates in a moderate upward market [3][4]. - Call options such as Barclays call option 27807 and HSBC call option 29547 recorded an 8% increase, demonstrating significant leverage effects [4]. Investment Strategies - For bullish investors, HSBC call option 29547 offers a leverage of 8.9 times with a strike price of 450.2 HKD, while Barclays call option 27807 provides a leverage of 9 times with a strike price of 450 HKD, both suitable for medium-term holding [6]. - For bearish investors, HSBC put option 16951 offers a leverage of 9.4 times with a strike price of 333.68 HKD, and UBS put option 16913 provides a leverage of 9 times with the same strike price, both having the lowest premiums and implied volatilities [7]. - UBS bear certificate 52551 has a leverage of 16.2 times with a recovery price of 420 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 53686 offers a leverage of 15.9 times, suitable for bearish market conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has attracted market attention, with the stock price at HKD 376.8, down 1.10%. The trading activity in derivatives has significantly increased, indicating a mixed technical signal with a potential for short-term adjustments [1]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows a buy signal, while the RSI is nearing the overbought zone, suggesting a possible technical adjustment in the short term [1]. - The key support level is identified in the range of HKD 333-340, while the psychological resistance is strong at HKD 400. The current stock price is positioned in the middle of this critical trading range, warranting close attention to short-term directional choices [1]. Derivative Performance - On May 13, when the underlying stock rose by 1.98%, HSBC bull certificates (66921) and UBS bull certificates (68185) both increased by 14%, while BNP Paribas call warrants (13399) rose by 10%, and JPMorgan call warrants (29203) increased by 9%. This demonstrates the leverage advantage of bull certificates in a moderate upward market [2]. - Investors are encouraged to consider products with exercise prices around HKD 408, such as the call warrant (13517) with a leverage of 6.19 times and HSBC call warrant (15891) with an implied volatility of 38.83% [5]. Bearish Strategies - For investors with a bearish outlook on HKEX, various derivative tools are available. Citigroup put warrant (16606) offers a leverage of 7.3 times with a low premium and implied volatility, with an exercise price of HKD 333.9. The call warrant (15262) has a slightly lower leverage of 6.4 times but also features low implied volatility [8]. - High-leverage options include JPMorgan bear certificate (52629) with a redemption price of HKD 400, providing a leverage of 19.5 times, and UBS bear certificate (52543) with similar terms offering 17.3 times leverage [8]. Market Sentiment - Observations indicate that some investors are optimistic about HKEX, anticipating the stock price to reach between HKD 380-400. Conversely, there are also strategies involving put warrants with exercise prices around HKD 281 [11].