Core Viewpoint - 瑞声科技 (02018) has shown a rebound, surpassing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 40.19, with a current price of 40.95, reflecting a 4.2% increase. The technical indicators present a complex pattern, with multiple sell signals but some signs of potential bottoming out [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has found support near the 30-day moving average at 39.47 and the 60-day moving average at 38.38. The technical strength indicator totals 13 points, indicating bearish signals from the Ichimoku Cloud and MACD, while the VR ratio suggests oversold conditions [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 38.3 and 36.7, with a significant psychological resistance at 41. A breakthrough above 41 could lead to a challenge of 42.4. The current probability of an upward movement is 56%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces [3]. Investment Opportunities - Recent stock price volatility has created opportunities for structured products. The call warrant (15694) stands out with a leverage of 5.1 times and a strike price of 44.88, suitable for investors optimistic about future price movements while focusing on cost control. Another option, the call warrant (15499), also offers 5.1 times leverage but with a higher strike price of 55.93 and a premium of 41.02%, appealing to more aggressive strategies [6]. - For investors seeking higher leverage, the call warrant (14436) provides 7.5 times leverage, although it comes with a premium of 63.69%. Conversely, bearish investors might consider the put warrant (14757), which has a lower leverage of 1.4 times but the lowest premium, making it a suitable hedging tool [6]. Product Selection Considerations - Investors should consider their risk tolerance, price trend expectations, and holding period when selecting products. High-leverage products offer significant return potential but come with higher risks, while low-premium products incur less time value loss, making them suitable for long-term holding [9].

Key Strategy - Leveraged Rotation Strategy (LRS) can amplify returns while effectively managing risk by reducing drawdowns and smoothing the investment process [1] - LRS involves using a moving average line as a filter: when the index closing price is above the moving average, investors buy the index with leverage; when it's below, they switch to US Treasury bonds or cash [1] - The strategy uses the moving average of the index, not the leveraged fund itself, as a filter [2] Market Analysis - Leverage can linearly amplify returns and risks, but market behavior isn't always linear; it varies with market volatility [1] - High volatility is detrimental to leverage, while small fluctuations and upward trends favor it [1] - When the S&P 500 index is above its 10-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 156%; below, it's 228% [1] - When the index is above its 200-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 146%; below, it's 269% [1] - Most significant drops occur when the index is below certain key moving averages, with the 20-day moving average being particularly important statistically [1] Performance Metrics - From October 1928 to December 2020, Buy & Hold strategy yielded a 94% annualized return, regular 3x leverage yielded 162%, and 3x LRS using the 200-day moving average yielded 267% [1] - A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in October 1928 would have grown to over $39 million by December 2020, while the 3x LRS strategy would have reached $28 trillion [1] - During the Great Depression, the S&P 500 fell by 86%, but the 3x LRS strategy only fell by 49%; in the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by 55%, while the 3x LRS strategy fell by 31% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) shows a stable upward trend, with the stock price reaching 401.2 HKD, reflecting a 1.42% increase, and technical indicators suggest a potential for further gains despite being in the overbought zone [1][9]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has broken through all major moving averages, with the 10-day moving average at 393.4 HKD and the 30-day moving average at 372.1 HKD indicating a bullish alignment [1]. - The MACD indicator remains in a golden cross state, suggesting a strengthening mid-term trend [1]. - The RSI has reached 70, indicating an overbought condition, and the upper Bollinger Band is at 406 HKD, which coincides with current resistance levels, suggesting a possible short-term technical adjustment [1]. - Key support levels are identified at 384 HKD and a stronger support at 360 HKD, while resistance is seen at 406 HKD, with a potential challenge at 418 HKD if broken [1]. Derivative Products Performance - Recent trading data from June 2 to June 4 shows that while HKEX's stock rose by 0.66%, related derivative products exhibited varying degrees of leverage effects, particularly bull certificates [3]. - HSBC bull certificate 53712 increased by 11% over two days, while Societe Generale bull certificate 54739 rose by 10%, highlighting the advantages of bull certificates in a moderate upward market [3][4]. - Call options such as Barclays call option 27807 and HSBC call option 29547 recorded an 8% increase, demonstrating significant leverage effects [4]. Investment Strategies - For bullish investors, HSBC call option 29547 offers a leverage of 8.9 times with a strike price of 450.2 HKD, while Barclays call option 27807 provides a leverage of 9 times with a strike price of 450 HKD, both suitable for medium-term holding [6]. - For bearish investors, HSBC put option 16951 offers a leverage of 9.4 times with a strike price of 333.68 HKD, and UBS put option 16913 provides a leverage of 9 times with the same strike price, both having the lowest premiums and implied volatilities [7]. - UBS bear certificate 52551 has a leverage of 16.2 times with a recovery price of 420 HKD, while JPMorgan bear certificate 53686 offers a leverage of 15.9 times, suitable for bearish market conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has attracted market attention, with the stock price at HKD 376.8, down 1.10%. The trading activity in derivatives has significantly increased, indicating a mixed technical signal with a potential for short-term adjustments [1]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows a buy signal, while the RSI is nearing the overbought zone, suggesting a possible technical adjustment in the short term [1]. - The key support level is identified in the range of HKD 333-340, while the psychological resistance is strong at HKD 400. The current stock price is positioned in the middle of this critical trading range, warranting close attention to short-term directional choices [1]. Derivative Performance - On May 13, when the underlying stock rose by 1.98%, HSBC bull certificates (66921) and UBS bull certificates (68185) both increased by 14%, while BNP Paribas call warrants (13399) rose by 10%, and JPMorgan call warrants (29203) increased by 9%. This demonstrates the leverage advantage of bull certificates in a moderate upward market [2]. - Investors are encouraged to consider products with exercise prices around HKD 408, such as the call warrant (13517) with a leverage of 6.19 times and HSBC call warrant (15891) with an implied volatility of 38.83% [5]. Bearish Strategies - For investors with a bearish outlook on HKEX, various derivative tools are available. Citigroup put warrant (16606) offers a leverage of 7.3 times with a low premium and implied volatility, with an exercise price of HKD 333.9. The call warrant (15262) has a slightly lower leverage of 6.4 times but also features low implied volatility [8]. - High-leverage options include JPMorgan bear certificate (52629) with a redemption price of HKD 400, providing a leverage of 19.5 times, and UBS bear certificate (52543) with similar terms offering 17.3 times leverage [8]. Market Sentiment - Observations indicate that some investors are optimistic about HKEX, anticipating the stock price to reach between HKD 380-400. Conversely, there are also strategies involving put warrants with exercise prices around HKD 281 [11].