Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor company SMIC (中芯国际) shows positive technical indicators, with a current stock price of HKD 48.8, reflecting a 0.51% increase. The stock is above its 10-day and 30-day moving averages, indicating a favorable medium-term trend, although it is approaching overbought territory [1]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently supported at HKD 45.1, with a potential drop to HKD 42.4 if this support is broken. The key resistance level is at HKD 50.3, and a breakthrough could lead to testing HKD 53.3 [1]. - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross, while the Bollinger Bands indicate an upward trend. However, the RSI is at 68, nearing the overbought zone, suggesting a possible need for consolidation before testing the resistance at HKD 50.3 [1]. - Investors are optimistic about breaking the resistance at HKD 49, with some targeting HKD 53. The overall technical signals are summarized as "buy" [1]. Derivative Instruments - Recent performance of derivative products linked to SMIC shows significant leverage effects. For instance, a specific warrant from Societe Generale increased by 32% following a 3.08% rise in SMIC's stock price [4]. - Various warrants are available in the market, with Citigroup's warrant offering 5.5x leverage at an exercise price of HKD 52.55, and UBS's warrant providing 4.2x leverage at HKD 52.05 [7]. - Bear certificates are also available, with one from Societe Generale offering 12.4x leverage and a redemption price of HKD 52 [10]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates active trading, with a 9.6% five-day volatility suggesting robust market engagement. The mixed signals from momentum oscillators indicate potential short-term fluctuations [1]. - Investors are considering whether to wait for a pullback to support levels or to follow through on potential breakouts, reflecting varying risk appetites in the semiconductor sector [13].

大多數人認為槓桿是危險的 我過去對槓桿投資也是有很多偏見 不過呢，最近我讀了一篇論文 它徹底改變了我的這種看法 這篇論文的標題叫做 長期槓桿投資 一種系統化的股票風險管理 與回報放大策略 文章的核心觀點用一句話概括 那就是 善用槓桿 它不只是放大利潤 更是風險管理的工具 那麼今天這支影片 我們就來探討一種 被證實是有效可行的 槓桿投資策略 影片的最後 我也會分享我自己的做法 我們通常對槓桿的理解是 使用槓桿 會線性的放大回報和風險 然而，現實的市場行為並不是這樣的 槓桿在不同的市場波動環境下 會體現出不同的風險與回報的特徵 那麼怎麼理解呢 我們來看一個真實的例子 2025年4月初的這幾天 標普500指數經歷了巨大的波動 從波動率指標上 能夠清晰的看到波動放大的這種特徵 從4月3日至4月11日這6天 標普500指數的波動情況是這樣的 第一天，指數下跌5.97% 對應的3倍槓桿下跌17.92% 第二天，指數下跌0.23% 3倍槓桿下跌了0.7% 這樣6個交易日累計下來 標普500指數的回報是負的0.61% 而3倍槓桿的總回報是負的5.68% 是指數跌幅的9.24%倍 3倍槓桿跌出了9倍的效果 這就是所謂的波動性損 ...