Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) and raises the 12-month price target to US$21.00 from a previous US$15.50, indicating an upside potential of 15.4% [1][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a constructive outlook on TME's faster Super VIP (SVIP) penetration and the long-term potential of its non-subscription business, particularly in live events and artist sponsorships [1][15]. - TME's stock has shown significant growth, rallying 69% year-to-date compared to HSTech's 18% [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth visibility and pricing power, particularly in the context of ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth driven by SVIP membership [1][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth Projections - TME's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 28,401 million in 2024 to RMB 38,385 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.4% [3][13]. - Non-subscription revenue is expected to outpace subscription revenue in the long run, currently accounting for 30% of total music revenue, with significant growth anticipated in live events and artist agency business [24][30]. ARPU and SVIP Penetration - The report raises ARPU estimates due to faster SVIP penetration, which is expected to increase from low-teen percentages to 19% by 2027, driven by enhanced SVIP privileges [16][18]. - Monthly ARPU for SVIP is forecasted to reach RMB 19.5 by 2025, reflecting a strong upward trend [20][21]. M&A and Strategic Initiatives - TME's recent strategic investments, including a 10% stake in SM Entertainment and a full acquisition of Ximalaya, are aimed at enhancing content offerings and expanding its footprint across the music industry value chain [7][30]. - The report notes that TME's strategy includes diversifying revenue streams through artist merchandising and live events, which aligns with its long-term vision [30][29]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts TME's valuation methodology to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, reflecting the value of its minority stakes in companies like Spotify and Universal Music [15][33]. - The new price target implies a 22X P/E for 2026, justified by TME's strong growth visibility compared to peers in the Chinese internet sector [15][33].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, total revenues reached RMB 7.5 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase [21] - Online music revenues increased by 16% year-over-year to RMB 5.8 billion, driven by strong growth in music subscription revenues [22] - Net profit increased by 47% year-over-year to RMB 2.1 billion, marking the highest quarterly profit in the company's history [21][26] - Non-IFRS net profit rose by 43% year-over-year to RMB 2.4 billion [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Music subscription revenues in Q4 2024 reached RMB 4 billion, representing an 18% increase year-over-year [22] - The number of online music paying users was 121 million, a 13% increase year-over-year [23] - Advertising revenues achieved strong year-over-year growth, primarily due to the growth in ad-supported model revenues [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Social entertainment services and other revenues were RMB 1.6 billion, down by 13% year-over-year [24] - The gross margin for Q4 reached 43.6%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points year-over-year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strengthening its business presence across the music value chain and enhancing user experiences through continuous product and service innovation [40] - The dual engine strategy combines rich content and platform innovation to capture emerging opportunities [4] - The company plans to invest in original content production, high-quality content, and innovative technologies globally [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future growth prospects, expecting healthy growth in online music driven by an increase in paying users and ARPPU [40] - The company aims to explore new business opportunities in content ecosystems, IoT, long-form audio, and international markets [41] - Management noted that the music live shows business in China is expected to continue strong performance, with stable market size and ticket prices [57] Other Important Information - The company announced an annual dividend of $273 million and a new share repurchase program of up to $1 billion [4] - The total revenues for the full year 2024 were RMB 28.4 billion, up by 2% year-over-year [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance on 2025 growth outlook - Management highlighted strong performance in 2024 and expressed optimism for 2025, focusing on user experience and continuous innovation [40][41] Question: Balance between subscriber and ARPU growth - Management indicated confidence in maintaining growth in both subscriber numbers and ARPU, while being cautious of price sensitivity [51][52] Question: Changes in consumer sentiment towards discretionary spending - Management observed a growing demand for live concerts and music festivals, indicating a positive cycle for music content consumption [56] Question: Strategy around AI in 2025 - Management plans to leverage AI technologies to enhance user experience and improve sound quality, while managing costs effectively [60][62] Question: Sequential revenue growth for social entertainment - Management noted that new interactive features and compliance improvements contributed to recent growth in social entertainment revenue [66][70]