Core Insights - Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) is gaining attention from multiple financial institutions, with several analysts raising their price targets and maintaining positive ratings following strong earnings reports [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal 2026 first quarter, Blue Bird reported net sales of $333.1 million and GAAP net income of $30.8 million, resulting in diluted EPS of $0.94 [4]. - The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $50.1 million with a margin of 15%, and sold 2,135 buses during this period [4]. - Revenue increased by $19.2 million year-over-year, attributed to pricing changes and product mix, while bus sales rose by 6.8% due to higher average fares [4]. - Gross profit improved by $10.9 million to $71.2 million, driven by stronger sales that offset rising costs [4]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - BofA raised Blue Bird's price target to $65 from $62 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing strong earnings [1]. - Needham increased the price objective from $70 to $78, also keeping a Buy rating, highlighting flat revenues but a bottom-line beat and increased full-year EBITDA projections [2]. - Barclays raised its price objective to $55 from $50, maintaining an Overweight rating after the Q1 release, noting that sales and profits exceeded expectations and backlog growth [3]. Market Position and Strategic Insights - Blue Bird operates in the school bus manufacturing sector and has a significant order backlog, with over 850 electric buses on firm order [4]. - The company is noted for its strategic positioning following recent M&A activity in the North American specialty vehicle industry, which has contributed to a stronger margin profile [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer regarding the lack of any stock, option, or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating a neutral stance [2]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and does not reflect the views of any affiliated organization [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Bird reported revenue of $333 million for Q1, which is 6% higher than the previous year, driven by pricing actions including tariffs [7][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $50 million, an increase of $4 million compared to last year, resulting in a margin of 15% [7][18] - Free cash flow reached a record $31 million, up $9 million from the prior year [7][16] - The liquidity position at the end of the quarter was a record $385 million, reflecting a $106 million increase year-over-year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bus segment net revenue was $308 million, up $20 million from the prior year, with average bus revenue per unit increasing by $9,000 to $144,000 [17] - EV sales in Q1 totaled 121 units, slightly down from the previous year, while the backlog included 855 EVs scheduled for delivery into 2027 [10][16] - Parts revenue remained strong at $25 million, supported by increased demand due to aging buses [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Order intake for Q1 was up 45% from the first quarter of 2025, resulting in a backlog of 3,400 units [4][8] - The market fundamentals remain strong, with an aging fleet and a heavy replacement cycle expected to drive demand for school buses [8][10] - The company anticipates a continued strong demand for EVs, supported by state funding and fleet mandates [10][79] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blue Bird's strategy focuses on business continuity, profitable growth, margin expansion, and leveraging a strong balance sheet for strategic opportunities [26][28] - The company is investing in automation and Industry 4.0 initiatives to improve manufacturing efficiency and reduce costs [5][28] - The new assembly plant is scheduled to launch in 2028, which will enhance production capabilities and support future growth [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong order intake and a favorable market environment despite challenges from tariffs [3][12] - The company is maintaining its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 in the range of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA target of $225 million [21][22] - Management highlighted the importance of state funding and federal programs in supporting EV sales and overall market growth [10][79] Other Important Information - The company completed a $15 million share buyback during Q1, with plans for a new $100 million program [20] - The $80 million MESC contract with the DOE for the new plant remains intact, contributing to job creation and clean school bus production [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin dynamics and pricing vs. efficiency - Management indicated that approximately two-thirds of margin improvement came from pricing and one-third from efficiency gains [33][34] Question: EV market share and diesel trends - Management confirmed a strong EV backlog and noted that diesel sales remained robust, with potential pre-buy activity due to upcoming emission regulations [40][41] Question: Capital allocation strategy - The company is focused on strategic growth opportunities and vertical integration, with a strong balance sheet enabling flexibility in capital allocation [51][52] Question: Automation impact on margins - Management stated that automation initiatives are expected to provide favorable returns and contribute positively to long-term margin improvements [56][57] Question: Market share outlook - Management noted that market share has normalized following supply issues faced by competitors, with no significant changes anticipated [62][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Bird reported Q1 revenue of $333 million, a 6% increase from the previous year, driven by pricing actions including tariffs [7][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $50 million, $4 million higher than last year, reflecting a 15% margin [7][16] - Free cash flow reached a record $31 million, up $9 million from the prior year [14] - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $385 million, a $106 million increase compared to a year ago [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bus net revenue was $308 million, up $20 million year-over-year, with average bus revenue per unit increasing by $9,000 to $144,000 [15] - EV sales in Q1 totaled 121 units, representing 6% of unit volume, with a backlog of 855 EVs pushing into 2027 [9][14] - Parts sales remained strong at $25 million, supported by increased demand due to aging buses [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Order intake for Q1 was up 45% from the first quarter of 2025, resulting in a backlog of 3,400 units [4][14] - The market fundamentals remain strong, with an aging fleet leading to a heavy replacement cycle [8] - The company anticipates a continued strong demand for school buses, supported by state funding and fleet EV mandates [10][78] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blue Bird's strategy focuses on long-term stability, profitable growth, margin expansion, and leveraging a strong balance sheet for strategic opportunities [26][27] - The company is investing in automation and Industry 4.0 initiatives to improve manufacturing efficiency and reduce costs [5][26] - The new assembly plant scheduled to launch in 2028 is a key part of the company's growth strategy [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong order intake and a favorable market environment despite tariff volatility [3][19] - The company is maintaining its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 in the range of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA target of $225 million [19][20] - Management highlighted the importance of EVs in the school bus sector, with a projected 800 EV unit sales for fiscal 2026 [10][19] Other Important Information - The company confirmed that the $80 million mass contract with the DOE for the new plant remains intact [11] - Blue Bird's long-term target includes driving revenue to $1.8-$2 billion with EBITDA of $280-$320 million by 2029 and beyond [22][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin dynamics and pricing impact - Management indicated that approximately two-thirds of margin improvement came from pricing, while one-third was due to efficiency gains [32] Question: EV market trends and backlog - Management confirmed a strong EV backlog, with over 1,000 units sold and in backlog, indicating robust demand despite infrastructure readiness issues [36] Question: Propane market trends - Management noted that propane remains a preferred option for school districts due to its total cost of operation and ease of infrastructure conversion [44] Question: Order trends and market share - Management reported a strong order intake, validating pricing stability and indicating a potential catch-up from previous quarters [48] Question: Capital allocation strategy - Management discussed a strong balance sheet and potential for strategic acquisitions, while also considering share buybacks and increased CapEx spending [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Blue Bird reported Q1 revenue of $333 million, a 6% increase from the previous year, driven by pricing actions including tariffs [6][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $50 million, $4 million higher than last year, reflecting a 15% margin [12][16] - Free cash flow reached a record $31 million, up $9 million from the prior year [13][18] - The company ended the quarter with a liquidity position of $385 million, a $106 million increase compared to a year ago [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold 2,135 buses in Q1, with bus net revenue at $308 million, up $20 million year-over-year [14][15] - EV sales accounted for 121 units, representing 6% of unit volume, with a backlog of 855 EVs pushing into 2027 [8][14] - Parts sales totaled $25 million for the quarter, remaining strong due to increased demand from aging buses [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Order intake for Q1 was up 45% from the first quarter of 2025, resulting in a backlog of 3,400 units [4][6] - The average selling price for buses increased by nearly $8,800 per unit year-over-year, influenced by tariff recovery [7][15] - The market fundamentals remain strong, with an aging fleet and a heavy replacement cycle anticipated [7][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Blue Bird aims to maintain its leadership in the All Power segment, focusing on EVs and propane buses as part of its long-term strategy [4][5] - The company is investing in automation and manufacturing efficiencies to improve cost structures and margins [5][26] - The new assembly plant scheduled to launch in 2028 is a key part of the company's strategy to enhance production capabilities and support growth [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing strong order intake and a favorable market environment for school buses [7][10] - The company is navigating tariff volatility effectively, aiming for a margin-neutral outcome [5][10] - The outlook for EVs remains positive, with expectations of 800 EV unit sales for fiscal 2026 [8][19] Other Important Information - The company confirmed a $80 million contract with the DOE for funding towards the new plant, which will create 400 jobs [10] - Blue Bird's long-term revenue target is projected to reach $2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $320 million by 2029 and beyond [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin dynamics and pricing impact - Management indicated that approximately two-thirds of margin improvement came from pricing, while one-third was due to efficiency gains [30] Question: EV market share and diesel trends - The company reported a strong EV backlog and noted that diesel sales remained robust, with potential pre-buy activity due to upcoming emission regulations [36][38] Question: Propane market trends - Management highlighted that propane remains a preferred option for school districts due to its total cost of operation and ease of infrastructure conversion [42] Question: Capital allocation strategy - The company is focused on strategic growth opportunities and vertical integration, with a strong balance sheet enabling flexibility in capital allocation [48][56] Question: Automation impact on margins - Management confirmed that ongoing automation initiatives are expected to provide favorable returns and support margin improvements over the long term [52][53]

BLUE BIRD CORPORATION (NASDAQ: BLBD) FY2026 First Quarter Results February 4, 2026 1 Agenda Introductions & Forward-Looking Statements Mark Benfield Investor Relations Lead | Key Results and Highlights | John Wyskiel | | --- | --- | | | President & CEO | | Financial Results | Razvan Radulescu | | | CFO | | Outlook | John Wyskiel | | | President & CEO | | Q&A | Group | This presentation includes forward-looking statements, including statements regarding full-year guidance and seasonality, that are subject to ...

Core Viewpoint - Blue Bird Corporation, a leader in electric and cleaner-emission school buses, will release its fiscal 2026 first quarter results on February 4, 2026, with an audio webcast featuring key executives discussing the results [1]. Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation (Nasdaq: BLBD) has been a technology leader and innovator in the school bus industry since its founding in 1927, focusing on safety, reliability, and durability [3]. - The company has sold over 25,000 propane, natural gas, and electric-powered buses, establishing itself as a leader in low- and zero-emission school buses [3]. - Blue Bird is committed to transforming the student transportation industry through cleaner energy solutions, emphasizing the importance of safety for the 25 million children transported daily [3].

Industry Overview - Global electric vehicle (EV) sales reached approximately 2 million units in November 2025, totaling around 18.5 million vehicles year-to-date, representing a 21% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][10] - EVs accounted for over one-quarter of all new cars sold worldwide in 2025 [1][10] - Europe experienced a significant growth in EV sales, with November sales up 36% year-over-year, driven by new incentives and a broader range of available models [2][10] Market Dynamics - China and Europe are expected to remain leaders in EV adoption, with emerging regions like the Middle East and Africa anticipated to see faster growth in 2026 due to improved financing and more affordable models [4] - The global EV penetration is projected to reach 26.7% in 2026 [4] - The expansion of charging infrastructure is critical for EV adoption, with ongoing investments from public and private sectors enhancing the viability of long-distance travel for EV users [5] Company Insights General Motors (GM) - GM is the top-selling automaker in the U.S., holding a 17% market share in Q3 2025, up 50 basis points year-over-year, and retained its 2 spot in the U.S. EV market with 67,000 deliveries and a 16.5% share [7][9] - The company benefits from the federal government's Auto Tariff Offset Process, enhancing its cost competitiveness and supporting U.S.-based manufacturing [8] - GM has a Zacks Rank 1, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 EPS implying year-over-year growth of 12.9% [9] BorgWarner (BWA) - BorgWarner is a leader in clean and efficient technology solutions for combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles, securing several new programs in Q3 2025 [11] - The company booked 17 awards over the past six months, broadening its customer base and increasing hybrid and EV exposure [12] - BWA carries a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 sales and EPS implying year-over-year growth of 2.1% and 6.8%, respectively [13] Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) - Blue Bird is a leading player in low- and zero-emission school buses, well-positioned to benefit from long-term trends such as a growing school-age population and ongoing federal funding for clean transportation [14] - The company expects fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $220 million, anticipating continued profitable growth [15] - BLBD carries a Zacks Rank 2, with a consensus estimate for fiscal 2026 sales implying year-over-year growth of 5.7% [16]

Core Insights - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry is poised for growth driven by affordable electric vehicles (EVs) and proposed tax incentives, despite economic challenges and rising tariffs [1][3][4] Industry Overview - The Zacks Domestic Auto industry encompasses companies involved in the design, manufacturing, and retailing of various vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, and electric vehicles [2] - The industry is highly consumer cyclic and plays a significant role in employment and innovation, particularly in electric and autonomous vehicle development [2] Factors Shaping the Industry's Prospects - The introduction of more affordable EVs, priced at $35,000 or below, is expected to increase consumer adoption, countering the impact of higher tariffs on foreign competitors [3] - Proposed tax incentives, allowing buyers of U.S.-assembled vehicles to deduct up to $10,000 in interest on auto loans, are anticipated to stimulate demand for new vehicles [4] Market Performance - The Domestic Auto industry has underperformed compared to the broader auto sector and the S&P 500, with a return of 6.3% over the past year, while the sector and S&P 500 grew by 7.1% and 14.5%, respectively [10] Current Valuation - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 53.06X, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 18.63X and the sector's 25.8X, indicating a premium valuation compared to historical levels [13] Company Highlights - **General Motors (GM)**: Holds a 16.5% share of the U.S. auto market, with strong demand for its brands and upcoming product launches expected to drive growth. GM has a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and positive earnings revisions for 2025 and 2026 [14][15] - **Polaris Inc. (PII)**: Reported $1.8 billion in revenues for Q3 and expects adjusted sales of $6.9 billion to $7.1 billion for 2025. PII also holds a Zacks Rank 1, with significant earnings surprises in recent quarters [20][21] - **Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)**: Focuses on school buses and alternative fuel applications, projecting fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.5 billion and continued growth. BLBD has a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and positive earnings revisions for 2026 [23][24]

Company Overview - Blue Bird Corporation, listed on NASDAQ as BLBD, is a leading manufacturer of school buses in North America with a history of innovation and quality in the transportation industry [1] Recent Performance - BLBD's recent performance shows a monthly decline of 1.28%, with a sharper loss of 7.40% in the past 10 days, which may present a strategic entry point for investors despite initial concerns [2] Growth Potential - The growth potential for BLBD is significant, with an estimated increase of 43.70%, indicating that the current market price may not fully reflect the company's value [3][6] Financial Health - A Piotroski Score of 8 for BLBD indicates strong financial health, reflecting the company's profitability, leverage, liquidity, and operating efficiency, suggesting it is well-managed and financially stable [4][6] Target Price - The target price for BLBD is set at $73, which aligns with its growth potential and suggests a substantial increase from its current price, reflecting confidence in the company's market position and financial strength [5][6]