YPF SA is setting aside funds to keep spending in the fast-growing Vaca Muerta basin even if oil prices fall this year as management handpicked by libertarian President Javier Milei looks to build the state-run company into a global shale star.“We’ve prepared ourselves,” Chief Executive Officer Horacio Marin said Wednesday during an interview in Buenos Aires. “We’ve managed our portfolio very well, so that in a low oil-price environment we don’t need to reduce investment. Our capex doesn’t change whether a ...

The U.S. shale boom is running out of steam, making Venezuela’s vast reserves look attractive to some U.S. oil companies. - MarketWatch/Rystad ShaleWellCube, iStockphoto The shale-oil revolution that transformed the U.S. into the world’s top oil producer is entering a new phase — one that could see America’s hard-fought lead in energy erode in fewer than five years as oil production growth peters out. The issue is a simple one. Shale well output declines rapidly. On average, a well produces roughly 80% o ...

Core Insights - Vista Energy SAB is preparing for expansion in the Vaca Muerta formation and is considering asset acquisitions that may be financed through equity issuance [1][2] - The company has scheduled a shareholder meeting for January 27 to seek approval for potential acquisitions and funding options [2] - Vista has previously expanded in Vaca Muerta, acquiring shale acreage from Petronas for approximately $1.3 billion [3] Industry Context - Deal activity in Vaca Muerta has increased under President Javier Milei's administration, which is removing capital controls and market restrictions [4] - The government is also extending investment incentives to crude oil drilling and production, which is positively received by producers [4] - Vista's CEO emphasized the importance of scale and regulatory reform for growth, highlighting discussions on reducing export taxes and labor law reforms [5] Future Plans - Vista holds a stake in VMOS, a key shale oil export project with new pipeline and port infrastructure expected to be operational in about a year [6] - The company has outlined a five-year growth plan aiming for production of over 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, nearly doubling its current output of around 114,000 barrels per day [6] Market Sentiment - The reform momentum in Argentina has sparked renewed interest in capital markets, with several companies considering U.S. listings or follow-on share sales [7] - Vista, which has previously listed in Mexico and sold equity in New York, is viewed as a potential beneficiary of this trend [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its price target for Vista shares to $53.20 from $59.60 while maintaining a Buy rating [7]

Core Insights - Daqing Oilfield's Gulong shale oil block has achieved over one million tonnes in annual output, indicating a successful transition to scaled production [1] - Shale oil is a crucial energy resource for China, with reserves significantly exceeding those of conventional oil, contributing to the country's energy security [2] - Daqing Oilfield has developed five core technologies for large-scale shale oil production over five years, resulting in a continuous increase in output [3] Company Overview - Daqing Oilfield, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), has been instrumental in the development of China's petroleum industry since its discovery in 1959 [4] - The oilfield has produced over 2.5 billion tonnes of crude oil, representing 36 percent of China's total onshore output [4]

Core Insights - Argentina's state-run oil company YPF, along with Vista, Shell Argentina, and Equinor, has entered into an agreement with Chile's national oil company ENAP for the export of shale oil from the Vaca Muerta formation [1] Company Summary - YPF is collaborating with other oil firms to enhance shale oil exports, indicating a strategic move to leverage the resources of the Vaca Muerta formation [1] - The partnership with ENAP signifies a cross-border cooperation aimed at expanding market access for Argentine shale oil [1] Industry Summary - The deal reflects the growing importance of shale oil in the South American energy landscape, particularly in Argentina, which is known for its significant shale reserves [1] - This collaboration may lead to increased investment and development in the shale oil sector, potentially boosting production and export capabilities [1]

Core Insights - The Vaca Muerta shale development is crucial for Argentina's energy landscape, addressing declining conventional oil and gas production and reducing energy imports [1][4][11] Production Trends - Argentina achieved a record oil production of 849,646 barrels per day in October 2025, marking a 2% month-on-month increase and a 15.5% year-on-year rise [3] - Natural gas output fell nearly 11% month-on-month and almost 7% year-on-year to just under 4.4 billion cubic feet per day, with shale gas production dropping 14% month-on-month [2] - Shale oil production surged to 571,478 barrels per day, accounting for 67.26% of total petroleum production, driven by increased drilling activity in Vaca Muerta [3][4] Economic Impact - The Vaca Muerta shale has transformed into the largest and most profitable shale play in Latin America, significantly contributing to Argentina's hydrocarbon output [5][11] - The development of Vaca Muerta is expected to enhance Argentina's balance of trade by reducing natural gas imports and increasing exports, thereby improving fiscal revenues for the government [11] Industry Challenges - Conventional oil production in Argentina is in decline, with high operational fragility and insufficient capital investment leading to mature oilfields being shuttered [7][10] - The high lifting costs of conventional oilfields, estimated at $35 to $45 per barrel, contrast sharply with the lower costs of $15 to $18 per barrel in Vaca Muerta, making the latter more attractive for investment [9][10] Future Potential - The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Vaca Muerta contains 16 billion barrels of shale oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, indicating significant growth potential with only 10% currently developed [6] - Analysts predict that Vaca Muerta could eventually produce at least 1 million barrels of oil and 5.7 billion cubic feet of shale gas per day, highlighting its role as a key growth engine for Argentina's energy sector [6][11]

Core Insights - Pampa Energía S.A. reported its financial results for the nine-month period and third quarter ended September 30, 2025, highlighting a slight decline in sales but an increase in adjusted EBITDA [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - Sales revenue for Q3 2025 was US$591 million, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decline, attributed to lower gas sales to retailers and a decrease in crude oil prices, despite increased crude oil production and gas exports [3][6]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached US$322 million in Q3 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, driven by strong contributions from shale oil production and gas exports [6]. - Net income attributable to shareholders was US$23 million, an 84% decrease compared to Q3 2024, primarily due to higher non-cash deferred tax charges [7]. Operational Highlights - Oil and gas production averaged 99.5 kboe/day in Q3 2025, up from 87.5 kboe/day in Q3 2024, with crude oil production increasing significantly by 220% to 17.3 kbpd [5]. - Gas production remained stable at 82.2 kboepd, while the average oil price decreased by 15% to US$61.1 per barrel [5]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, net debt totaled US$874 million, up from US$712 million in June 2025, resulting in a net-debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.3x [8]. - The company reported a decrease in cash and cash equivalents to US$411 million from US$738 million at the beginning of the period [13]. Future Outlook - A videoconference is scheduled for November 5, 2025, to discuss the Q3 2025 results, featuring key executives from the company [14].

Core Insights - The U.S. shale oil and gas boom has significantly altered global energy dynamics, reducing U.S. dependence on imports and lowering energy prices [1][2] - The U.S. has emerged as the world's largest oil and gas producer, diminishing OPEC's influence and becoming the leading exporter of liquefied natural gas [2] - Other countries are now exploring shale resources, which could impact energy security and investment opportunities globally [3] Argentina: The Next Big Thing - Vaca Muerta in Argentina is gaining traction as a significant unconventional oil and gas resource, with approximately 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of gas recoverable [4] - Oil output from Vaca Muerta increased by 27% and gas output by 23% year-over-year in 2024 [4] - Major companies like YPF, Chevron, and Shell are heavily invested in Vaca Muerta, with Chevron aiming to increase its output to 30,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025 [5] - Despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainty and high costs, Vaca Muerta represents the first non-U.S. shale basin with credible scale and investment depth [6] China: A Silent Giant With Massive Potential - China possesses the largest technically recoverable shale gas reserves globally, primarily located in the Sichuan Basin [8] - Development has been slow due to geological complexities and resource constraints, but advancements in digital drilling and hydraulic stimulation are being implemented to enhance production [8] - Successful development of China's shale gas could significantly alter regional LNG flows and decrease reliance on coal [8]

Core Viewpoint - PetroChina has discovered an additional 158 million metric tons, equivalent to approximately 1.15 billion barrels, of shale oil reserves in a pilot project located in northeast China [1] Company Summary - The new shale oil reserve discovery by PetroChina highlights the company's ongoing efforts to expand its resource base and enhance its production capabilities [1] Industry Summary - The discovery of significant shale oil reserves in China indicates a potential shift in the country's energy landscape, potentially reducing reliance on imported oil and boosting domestic production [1]

Core Insights - Oil and gas activity in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico has slightly declined in Q3, with executives expressing a negative outlook for the industry [1][2] - The decline in activity is attributed to uncertainty around oil prices and dissatisfaction with U.S. government policies, particularly those of President Trump [2][4] - A significant number of exploration and production executives are delaying investment decisions due to heightened uncertainty regarding oil prices and production costs [3][4] Industry Trends - More than one-third of exploration and production executives reported significant delays in investment decisions due to uncertainty in oil pricing [3] - Many producers require oil prices around $65 per barrel to be profitable, while U.S. crude futures have fluctuated between $62 and $70 per barrel in Q3 [4] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe have supported oil prices, but OPEC+ output increases and U.S. tariffs have negatively impacted them [5] Future Outlook - Over three-quarters of executives anticipate that shale oil drilling will become commercially viable in international markets outside the U.S., Canada, and Argentina within the next decade [6] - Companies are increasingly looking abroad for drilling opportunities as domestic resources are being depleted [6][7] - Approximately 43% of exploration and production firms expect a decrease in capital expenditure in Q3 compared to the same period last year, while oilfield service firms expect a 42% decline [7]