We came across a bearish thesis on Progress Software Corporation on Valueinvestorsclub.com by MCM20. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on PRGS. Progress Software Corporation's share was trading at $40.99 as of February 2nd. PRGS’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.65 and 7.03 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 10 Must-Buy AI Stocks to Invest In Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applicat ...

Key Takeaways PRGS posted Q4 EPS of $1.23, beating estimates by over 20%, while revenue rose 18% y/y.PRGS saw ARR climb to $852M on strong ShareFile demand and other products, with net retention above 100%.PRGS issued higher fiscal 2026 revenue and EPS guidance and reported an expanded 38.1% operating margin.Progress Software (PRGS) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 non-GAAP earnings of $1.23 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.59% and increased 14.9% year over year.  Non-GAAP revenue ...

Company Overview - Progress Software Corporation specializes in software products for the development, deployment, and management of AI-powered applications and digital experiences, with a diverse product portfolio including Chef, Corticon, Data Direct, and more [7] Options Trading Activity - Recent options trading activity has identified over 9 transactions on Progress Software, with a cumulative value of $766,228, including 2 puts valued at $203,320 [1] - Significant investors are targeting a price range of $42.5 to $50.0 for Progress Software over the past three months [2] - The mean open interest for options trades today is 572, with a total volume of 5,484 [3] Options Trade Details - Notable options trades include bullish sweeps for calls and puts, with the largest call trade at a strike price of $47.50 totaling $165,000 and a put trade at $50.00 totaling $151,700 [6] Market Position and Analyst Insights - Progress Software's stock price is currently at $45.15, reflecting a 16.96% increase, with upcoming earnings expected in 68 days [9] - Analysts have provided an average target price of $56.33, with individual targets ranging from $45 to $70 [8][9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $978 million, representing a 30% increase year over year, with earnings per share of $5.72, up 16% from fiscal year 2024 [5][19] - Fourth quarter revenue was $253 million, an 18% increase year over year, with earnings of $1.51, exceeding the high end of guidance [6][20] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $852 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year growth, maintaining a 100% net retention rate [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in ARR was driven by multiple products, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, WhatsUp Gold, and DevTools, with ShareFile contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth [18][19] - Operating income for the fourth quarter was $96 million, resulting in an operating margin of 38%, which exceeded internal expectations [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The integration of ShareFile was completed successfully, contributing positively to the overall performance and customer retention [8][9] - The company opened a new facility in Costa Rica to enhance tech support and customer success, indicating a strategic move to support regional growth [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on continuing investments in AI projects, which are expected to drive future growth and customer commitment [8][32] - The M&A strategy remains selective, targeting infrastructure software vendors with solid technology and a stable customer base [15][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the FY 2026 guidance, anticipating revenue between $986 million and $1 billion, with an operating margin of 39% [24] - The management highlighted that fears regarding AI disruption in the software industry are overblown, emphasizing the continued need for reliable software solutions [28][32] Other Important Information - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of $95 million and a net debt position of $1.3 billion [20] - The company plans to aggressively repay its revolving line of credit, aiming for $250 million in repayments for fiscal 2026 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: General perspective on AI's impact on software - Management acknowledged the hype and fear surrounding AI but emphasized that businesses will continue to rely on established software solutions rather than developing their own [28][32] Question: Monetization path of AI and net retention rates - Management noted that while net retention rates remain strong, significant AI investments are still limited to a small number of tech companies, indicating that broader adoption may take time [42][43] Question: Revenue growth and free cash flow expectations - Management indicated that Q4 cash flow was strong due to backend-loaded bookings, and they expect free cash flow growth to outpace revenue growth in 2026 [45][46] Question: SaaS revenue strength and guidance - Management confirmed that Q4 saw strong SaaS revenue driven by ShareFile and other products, but they do not expect similar outsized growth in 2026 [52] Question: Retention rates of acquisition targets amid AI fears - Management observed a softening in retention rates for smaller companies, as customers are questioning their stability in the face of AI disruption [55][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annual revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $978 million, representing a 30% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share of $5.72, up 16% from fiscal year 2024 [5][19] - Fourth quarter revenue was $253 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, with earnings of $1.51, exceeding guidance [6][20] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $852 million, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, maintaining a 100% net retention rate [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in ARR was driven by multiple products, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, WhatsUp Gold, and DevTools [18] - ShareFile and OpenEdge outperformed internal expectations, contributing significantly to revenue growth [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong performance in the AI sector, with customer investments in AI projects driving growth [5][8] - The integration of ShareFile was highlighted as a successful acquisition, contributing positively to overall performance [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a Total Growth Strategy, with an emphasis on M&A opportunities in infrastructure software [15] - Continued investment in AI product innovations is a priority, with new offerings aimed at enhancing customer experiences [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the FY 2026 guidance, anticipating revenue between $986 million and $1 billion, with an operating margin of 39% [24] - The management acknowledged the current hype and fear surrounding AI but emphasized the importance of established software solutions in business operations [28][31] Other Important Information - The company maintained a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of $95 million and a net debt position of $1.3 billion [20] - A new facility in Costa Rica was opened to enhance tech support and customer success, reflecting regional growth strategies [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market evolution and AI impact on software - Management discussed the hype and fear surrounding AI, emphasizing that businesses will continue to rely on established software solutions rather than developing their own [28][30] Question: Net retention rates and AI monetization - Management noted that while net retention rates remain strong, significant AI investments are still concentrated among a small number of tech companies, indicating potential for future growth [42][43] Question: Free cash flow and seasonality - Management indicated that Q4 showed strong cash flow performance, with expectations for continued growth in free cash flow in FY 2026, without significant changes in seasonality [45][46] Question: SaaS revenue growth - Management attributed the strong SaaS revenue growth in Q4 to ShareFile and other products, but cautioned that growth rates would align more closely with overall business performance in FY 2026 [52] Question: Retention rates of acquisition targets - Management observed a softening in retention rates among smaller software companies, indicating challenges in the current market environment [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported annual revenue of $978 million, representing a 30% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $5.72, up 16% from fiscal year 2024 [5][18] - In Q4, revenue reached $253 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, with earnings of $1.51, exceeding the high end of guidance [7][19] - The company achieved a net retention rate of 100% and a year-over-year ARR growth of 2% to $852 million, which now constitutes over 87% of total revenue [7][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in ARR was driven by multiple products, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, WhatsUp Gold, and DevTools [17] - ShareFile and OpenEdge outperformed internal expectations, contributing significantly to revenue growth [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong performance in the second half of FY25, particularly due to customer investments in AI projects [5][8] - The U.S. Department of Defense added Progress Federal Solutions Group to its TradeWinds Solutions Marketplace, enhancing the company's market presence [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the integration of ShareFile and Nuclia, which are expected to enhance product offerings and customer value [8][9] - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined M&A strategy, looking for infrastructure software vendors with solid technology [15] - The company plans to continue investing in AI innovations to meet customer needs and drive growth [6][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in FY26 guidance, anticipating revenue between $986 million and $1 billion, with an operating margin of 39% [23] - The management highlighted that fears regarding AI disruption in the software industry may be overblown, emphasizing the continued need for reliable software solutions [30][31] - The company expects to see a gradual increase in AI-related investments from customers, similar to the early internet era [43] Other Important Information - The company maintained strong cash flow, with adjusted free cash flow of $62 million for Q4 and $247 million for the full year, marking a 16% increase over the prior year [21] - The company repurchased $40 million in stock during Q4 and $105 million for the full fiscal year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does Progress view the evolution of AI in software? - Management acknowledged the hype and fear surrounding AI but emphasized that businesses will continue to rely on established software solutions rather than developing their own [27][30] Question: Why hasn't there been a more significant uptick in net retention rates despite AI investments? - Management indicated that most AI investments are currently limited to a small number of tech companies, and broader business spending on AI is still developing [42][43] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow and seasonality in FY26? - Management expects free cash flow to grow significantly in FY26, with no major changes in seasonality compared to previous years [44][46] Question: What drove the strong sequential increase in SaaS revenues in Q4? - Management attributed the increase to strong performance in ShareFile and other SaaS offerings, but noted that growth would be more consistent with overall business growth in FY26 [52][53] Question: Have retention rates changed for potential acquisition targets? - Management observed a softening in growth and retention rates among smaller companies, indicating a cautious approach to acquisitions [56][57]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported annual revenue of $978 million, a 30% increase year over year, and earnings per share of $5.72, up 16% from fiscal year 2024 [5][18] - The fourth quarter revenue was $253 million, an 18% increase year over year, with earnings of $1.51, exceeding guidance [6][19] - The company achieved a 100% net retention rate and a 2% year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to $852 million, which now represents over 87% of total revenue [5][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in ARR was driven by multiple products, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, WhatsUp Gold, and DevTools, with ShareFile being a significant contributor to the overall revenue growth [17][18] - Operating income for Q4 was $96 million, resulting in an operating margin of 38%, which exceeded internal expectations [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong performance in the second half of the fiscal year, particularly due to customer investments in AI projects [5][7] - The integration of ShareFile and Nuclia's technology has been well-received, contributing positively to the company's product offerings and customer satisfaction [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on continuing its total growth strategy, with an emphasis on M&A opportunities among infrastructure software vendors [14][15] - The company plans to aggressively repay its revolving line of credit used for the ShareFile acquisition, aiming to improve its net leverage ratio [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the FY 2026 guidance, anticipating revenue between $986 million and $1 billion, representing 1-2% growth over 2025 [22] - The management highlighted the importance of AI in driving future growth and emphasized the company's commitment to innovation and product development [29][30] Other Important Information - The company opened a new facility in Costa Rica to enhance tech support and customer success, strengthening its regional presence [12] - The company maintained a low voluntary attrition rate of 6% for fiscal 2025, reflecting a positive workplace culture [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Perspective on AI's impact on software - Management acknowledged the hype and fear surrounding AI but emphasized that businesses will continue to rely on existing applications and tools, suggesting that fears of disruption are overblown in the near term [26][29] Question: Monetization path of AI and net retention rates - Management indicated that while net retention rates remain strong, the broader investment in AI is still limited to a small number of tech companies, suggesting that significant growth in this area may take time [39][40] Question: Revenue growth and free cash flow expectations - Management noted that Q4 cash flow was strong due to backend-loaded bookings, and they expect free cash flow growth to outpace revenue growth in 2026 [42][43] Question: SaaS revenue strength and guidance - Management confirmed that Q4 saw strong SaaS revenue growth driven by ShareFile and other products, but they do not expect this trend to dramatically outpace overall business growth in 2026 [47][48] Question: Retention rates of acquisition targets - Management observed that smaller companies are facing challenges with customer retention due to fears of AI disruption, leading to increased selectivity in acquisition targets [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported annual revenue of $978 million, representing a 30% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share of $5.72, up 16% from fiscal year 2024 [6][19] - The fourth quarter revenue was $253 million, an 18% increase year-over-year, with earnings of $1.51, exceeding the high end of guidance [7][20] - The company achieved a 100% net retention rate and a 2% year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to $852 million, which now constitutes over 87% of total revenue [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The growth in ARR was driven by multiple products, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, WhatsUp Gold, and DevTools [18] - The strong performance of ShareFile and OpenEdge contributed significantly to revenue growth, with ShareFile being a major driver of the overall 30% revenue increase for the year [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that its investment in AI projects by customers has been a significant factor in driving business momentum, particularly in the second half of fiscal year 2025 [9][12] - The U.S. Department of Defense added Progress Federal Solutions Group to its list of pre-approved providers of AI products, enhancing the company's market position [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the integration of ShareFile and Nuclia, which has been well-received and is adding significant functionality to its product offerings [9][10] - The company is focused on maintaining a total growth strategy, with an emphasis on selective M&A opportunities in infrastructure software [15][16] - The company plans to continue investing in AI innovations to enhance its product portfolio and meet customer needs [9][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fiscal year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue between $986 million and $1 billion, with an operating margin of 39% [24] - The management highlighted that fears regarding AI disruption in the software industry are overblown, emphasizing the continued need for reliable software solutions [28][32] - The company expects to maintain ARR growth consistent with the 2% growth seen in fiscal year 2025 [22][34] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with cash and cash equivalents of $95 million and a net debt position of $1.3 billion, with a net leverage ratio of approximately 3.4 times [20] - The company repurchased $40 million in stock during the fourth quarter and $105 million for the full fiscal year 2025 [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does Progress view the evolution of software in the context of AI? - Management believes that fears regarding AI disruption are overblown, as businesses will continue to rely on established software solutions rather than developing their own [28][32] Question: Why hasn't there been a more significant uptick in net retention rates despite AI investments? - Management indicated that most AI investments are currently limited to a small number of tech companies, and broader business spending on AI is still developing [43] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow and its seasonality in fiscal 2026? - Management expects free cash flow to grow significantly in 2026, with no major changes in seasonality compared to historical trends [47] Question: What drove the strong sequential increase in SaaS revenues in Q4? - The increase was attributed to strong performance in ShareFile and other SaaS offerings, although management cautioned that this growth is not expected to be dramatically different in 2026 [54] Question: Have retention rates changed for potential acquisition targets in light of AI fears? - Management noted that smaller companies are facing challenges with customer retention as clients question their stability, leading to a more selective acquisition strategy [57]

Progress Financial Results Q4 2025 Supplemental Information January 20, 2026 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Progress has identified some of these forward-looking statements with words like "believe," "may," "could," "would," "might," "should," "expect," "intend," "plan," "target," "anticipate" ...

Core Insights - Progress Software (PRGS) is expected to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 20, 2026, with anticipated non-GAAP revenues between $250 million and $256 million and non-GAAP earnings projected between $1.29 and $1.35 per share, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year decline in earnings [1][2] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for revenues stands at $252.68 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.55% [2] - Progress Software has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 14.74% [2] Performance Drivers - The company's performance in Q4 2025 is expected to benefit from a diversified product portfolio, including ShareFile, OpenEdge, DevTools, MarkLogic, WhatsUp Gold, Sitefinity, and Corticon, supported by solid customer retention rates [3] - Progress Software reported a net retention rate of 100% in Q3 2025, indicating strong customer loyalty and expansion, which is anticipated to continue into the upcoming quarter [3] AI Integration and Growth - The integration of AI capabilities across its product suite, such as retrieval augmented generation (RAG)-enabled MarkLogic and AI coding assistants for developer tools, is expected to enhance customer retention and acquisition [4] - The acquisition of ShareFile has significantly contributed to the company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), which grew 47% year-over-year to $849 million in Q3 2025, with AI features driving customer adoption and retention [5] Cost Management and Economic Environment - Stringent cost management practices are expected to support bottom-line growth despite challenges posed by persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and a difficult macroeconomic environment [6] Earnings Prediction Model - According to the Zacks model, Progress Software currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating that the odds of an earnings beat are not favorable at this time [7]