In less than a week, the North American Aerospace Defense Command will conduct its annual operation tracking Santa’s circumnavigation of the globe. Unfortunately, because of the government shutdown this fall, there’s not enough data on the elfen labor at his workshop to get a clear picture of Christmas demand. Thankfully, that’s what FedEx’s earnings are for. The shipping company reported an adjusted profit of $1.1 billion in its latest quarter on Thursday, up 25% year over year, and revenue of $23.5 bil ...

Core Insights - The RealReal reported $173.57 million in revenue for Q3 2025, a 17.5% year-over-year increase, and an EPS of -$0.49, compared to -$0.09 a year ago [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $169.53 million by 2.39%, while the EPS fell short of the consensus estimate of -$0.14 by 250% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average Order Value (AOV) was $584.00, surpassing the estimated $554.00 [4] - The number of orders was 890, slightly below the estimated 900 [4] - Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) reached $519.81 million, exceeding the estimate of $498.3 million [4] - Consignment revenue was $134.43 million, below the estimate of $140.1 million but reflecting a 15% increase year-over-year [4] - Direct revenue was $22.93 million, significantly above the estimated $18.81 million, marking a 46.8% year-over-year increase [4] - Shipping services revenue was $16.22 million, in line with the estimate of $16.2 million, representing a 6.5% year-over-year increase [4] Stock Performance - The RealReal's shares have returned +16.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.3% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - UPS is currently viewed as one of the most out-of-favor stocks, yet it has a buy rating with a price target of 112, indicating significant upside potential from its current trading levels [1] Group 1: Stock Valuation and Dividend Yield - UPS is trading at its largest historical discount to the S&P 500, with an almost 8% dividend yield, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2] - The stock is perceived to be priced as if it faces existential risks, which the company does not believe are as severe as the market suggests [2] Group 2: Financial Health and Cash Flow - UPS generates sufficient free cash flow to cover its dividend, and there is optimism that the company will address cost-related challenges and its relationship with Amazon over time [2] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Impact on Trucking - The enforcement of English language and citizenship requirements for truck drivers could potentially remove up to 200,000 truckers from the road, impacting supply and demand dynamics in the trucking industry [4][5] - The introduction of tariffs on imported trucks may also affect UPS, as these regulatory changes could lead to higher trucking rates by 2026, benefiting UPS and the broader transportation sector [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Employment - UPS serves as a bellwether for the freight and shipping economy, with its international segment providing clear insights into the impacts of tariffs and additional costs incurred [7][8] - The company's plan to cut 20,000 jobs may affect blue-collar employment, as UPS is one of the largest unionized employers in the country, and its compensation structure is relatively high [9]

Group 1 - The core narrative surrounding United Parcel Service (UPS) is its status as a low-risk turnaround stock, with a current dividend yield of 7.7% but a trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio exceeding 95%, raising concerns about a potential dividend cut [3][7] - The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in demand for UPS's shipping services as consumers shifted to online shopping, which initially boosted the stock price, but the subsequent normalization of consumer behavior caused a decline in shares [4][5] - UPS management is undertaking a significant business overhaul aimed at improving efficiency and focusing on the most profitable segments, which includes costly agreements with unions, asset sales, technology upgrades, and location closures [5][6] Group 2 - The current financial results of UPS are under pressure due to the costs associated with the ongoing business transformation, which has contributed to the high dividend payout ratio [7] - Wall Street's short-term focus contrasts with UPS's long-term strategy, indicating that the company is resetting its business model, which may lead to a reduction in the dividend [7][8] - The decision to reduce its relationship with Amazon by 50% reflects UPS's strategy to prioritize higher-margin business over low-margin contracts [6]

Company Performance - FedEx Corp. reported first-quarter revenue of $22.2 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $21.67 billion [3] - The company achieved adjusted earnings of $3.83 per share, surpassing estimates of $3.62 per share [3] - FedEx expects revenue growth of 4% to 6% year-over-year in fiscal 2026 and plans for permanent cost reductions of $1 billion [4] Stock Movements - AGM Group Holdings Inc. shares surged 323% to $9.43 following the sale of its subsidiary for $57.45 million [8] - Barfresh Food Group, Inc. shares increased by 21% to $4.64 after raising its revenue guidance for FY26 and FY25 [8] - ZOOZ Power Ltd. shares rose 40% to $3.26 after shareholder approval for a $180 million private placement [8] - Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc. shares fell 38% to $0.2593 due to a $9 million offering announcement [8] - ChowChow Cloud International shares dropped 16% to $4.51 amid post-IPO volatility [8] - AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. shares decreased by 16% to $0.9779 [8] Market Overview - Energy stocks declined by 0.9% on Friday [2] - Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.57% and China's Shanghai Composite down 0.30% [9] - European shares were mostly higher, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.1% [7]

Group 1: Alexandria Real Estate - Alexandria Real Estate is a leader in the niche of medical research office properties, which is expected to see strong long-term demand due to the importance of medical research in healthcare [4] - The company is currently facing tenant issues, with occupancy dropping to 90.8% in Q2 2025 from 94.6% at the beginning of the year, and funds from operations (FFO) decreasing by approximately 1% year over year [5] - Management is making changes to improve performance, focusing on its best assets, and the current ultra-high dividend yield stands at 6.8% [6] Group 2: General Mills - General Mills is a well-established food company known for its strong brand management and ability to adapt by buying and selling brands to meet consumer demand [7][8] - The company is currently experiencing a decline in organic sales, which fell by 2% in fiscal 2025, due to a shift in consumer focus towards health [8] - The dividend yield has increased to an attractive 4.9%, making it a potential buy for investors willing to wait for the company to realign with consumer preferences [9] Group 3: United Parcel Service (UPS) - UPS is undergoing a significant transition as it focuses on upgrading operations after a decline in stock value post-pandemic, which was driven by overly optimistic expectations about e-commerce [10][11] - Despite tough financial results, there are positive signs, such as a 5.5% year-over-year increase in revenue per package in the U.S. market during Q2 2025 [12] - The current dividend yield is 7.5%, but the dividend payout ratio exceeded 100% in Q2, indicating a potential risk of a dividend cut, although even a reduced payout would still offer an attractive yield [13] Group 4: Overall Market Perspective - Alexandria, General Mills, and UPS are all facing near-term challenges but possess strong business fundamentals that could make them attractive long-term investments [14]