Bernstein Energy & Power: Tipping point as batteries push out coal Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Nigania +91 226 842 1414 nikhil.nigania@bernsteinsg.com Deepa Venkateswaran, ACA +44 20 7676 6990 deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.com Guillaume Delaby +33 1 42 13 62 29 guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.com Irene Himona, Ph.D. +44 20 7762 5353 irene.himona@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com China may have just seen peak emissio ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $302 million of funds from operations (FFO) during the quarter, or $0.46 per unit, representing a 10% year-over-year increase [3][21] - The hydroelectric segment delivered FFO of $119 million, up over 20% from the prior year [21] - The wind and solar segments generated a combined $177 million of FFO, supported by acquisitions, although offset by the sale of wind assets in various regions [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hydroelectric segment's strong performance was driven by solid generation from Canadian and Colombian fleets, higher pricing in the U.S., and increased earnings from commercial activities [21] - The distributed energy, storage, and sustainable solutions segments generated FFO of $127 million, reflecting growth from acquisitions and strong performance at Westinghouse [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - There is accelerating demand for power across nearly all markets, driven by electrification, reindustrialization, and demand from hyperscalers [4][6] - The company is well-positioned to capture increasing demand for hydro capacity, with approximately five terawatt hours of generation coming up for recontracting [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strategic investments in critical technologies to support energy demand and grid reliability, particularly in nuclear energy [6][10] - A strategic partnership with the U.S. government aims to support the construction of new Westinghouse nuclear reactors, with an investment value of at least $80 billion [14][17] - The company is also exploring opportunities in battery storage, with costs decreasing significantly and an increase in long-term capacity contracts [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth prospects of the business, highlighting the strong demand for clean, dispatchable base load power and the company's strategic positioning in the nuclear sector [12][85] - The company anticipates significant earnings growth from the Westinghouse partnership and expects to see contributions from this agreement relatively quickly [39][63] Other Important Information - The company maintained strong liquidity of $4.7 billion and a sector-leading balance sheet, reaffirming its BBB Plus investment-grade rating [21][23] - The company executed $7.7 billion in financings during the quarter, reflecting strong investor demand for its high-quality assets [23][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Improvements in permitting pace in the U.S. - Management noted that while there is intent to accelerate permitting, progress has been limited but is expected to improve over time [30][31] Question: Data center power discussions outside the U.S. - Management indicated that discussions are occurring globally, with significant activity in Western Europe, Australia, India, and South America [32] Question: Timeline for U.S. buildout associated with the Westinghouse agreement - Management expects the first projects to begin development in the next quarter or two, with revenues starting relatively quickly [36][39] Question: Capital investment in nuclear projects - Management emphasized the need for appropriate protections around cost overruns and key risks before investing in nuclear projects [42][46] Question: Contracting existing hydro assets versus building new wind and solar - Management confirmed that the Microsoft Framework Agreement included hydro and indicated potential for more hydro deals in the future [48][49] Question: Engagement with stakeholders regarding the U.S. government partnership - Management reported positive reception from construction and technology providers regarding participation in new nuclear projects [55] Question: Federal tax credits eligibility for U.S. development pipeline - Management confirmed clarity around safe harboring for the U.S. development pipeline and expressed confidence in their position [69] Question: Valuations in private markets versus public markets - Management noted that demand and valuations for high-quality operating cash-generative renewables assets are significantly higher in private markets [71][73] Question: Nuclear deployment strategy and potential growth - Management indicated that nuclear currently represents about 5% of the business and is expected to grow over time, with no internal constraints on capital allocation [78][80]

Core Insights - The 2025 BP Energy Outlook explores two scenarios: "Current Trajectory" and "Below 2°C," analyzing potential energy transition pathways up to 2050, rather than making predictions [1][6][58] - The "Current Trajectory" scenario suggests that carbon emissions will remain stable this decade and then gradually decline, with a projected reduction of about 25% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels, exceeding the IPCC's 2°C carbon budget [1][61] - The "Below 2°C" scenario assumes stricter climate policies and societal behavior changes, leading to a 90% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 2023, aligning with the IPCC's 2°C target [1][61] Energy Demand and Structure - Emerging economies (excluding China) are the primary drivers of energy demand growth, with electricity demand expected to double in both scenarios [1][45] - Solar and wind energy are projected to become the dominant power sources, while coal consumption is expected to decline due to reduced demand in power generation [1][48] - Oil demand is anticipated to decrease, but it will still play a significant role in the next 10-15 years, with the petrochemical sector becoming a major source of growth [1][47] Key Influencing Factors - Geopolitical fragmentation may lead countries to prioritize energy self-sufficiency, impacting energy supply chains and transition pathways [2] - Weak improvements in energy efficiency could hinder emission reduction efforts, potentially increasing fossil fuel demand [2] - Delayed transitions may result in costly adjustments needed to meet climate targets, with AI influencing energy systems by increasing data center power demand while optimizing energy efficiency [2] Regional and Sector Contributions - Emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are crucial for emission reductions, with China significantly impacting the differences between the two scenarios [2][70] - The power and industrial sectors are the main contributors to emission reductions, accounting for 40% and 35% of the differences between the scenarios, respectively [2][72] - The transition from "energy addition" to "energy substitution" is expected, where low carbon energy increasingly replaces unabated fossil fuels [1][49][107]

Core Insights - The Trump administration's shift away from renewable energy has led to consolidation and asset sales among smaller U.S. solar and wind companies as they struggle to remain viable [1][2] Industry Impact - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has restructured tax credits and reduced eligibility for solar and wind projects, emphasizing fossil fuels over green energy [2] - The number of clean energy deals surged to 63 with a total value of approximately $34 billion in the first half of 2025, compared to about 57 deals worth around $7 billion in the second half of 2024 [3] - The rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act and the elimination of loan guarantees for green projects have intensified pressures on smaller companies, potentially leading to mergers or asset sales [4] Financial Outlook - The U.S. Energy Department plans to cancel over $13 billion in funding for green energy, worsening the outlook for such initiatives [5] - The cancellation of federal loans is expected to drive mergers and acquisitions in the utility sector, particularly for distressed clean energy assets [6] Market Dynamics - Private equity firms and utilities are actively seeking opportunities, with recent acquisitions such as CBRE Investment Management's agreement to acquire ClearGen, a clean energy developer [7] - Larger utilities and private equity investors are capitalizing on undervalued assets due to their stronger financial positions and risk tolerance [8]

Group 1 - The Motley Fool updated its list of the largest public utilities, with NextEra Energy at the top, operating Florida Power & Light, one of the largest regulated utilities in the U.S. [1][2] - NextEra Energy has a market capitalization of approximately $148 billion, which is about $30 billion higher than the next largest utility, Iberdrola [2][6] - The company benefits from demographic trends, particularly the influx of retirees to Florida, which supports its customer base [3][4] Group 2 - NextEra Energy operates within a regulated utility business model, which requires government approval for rates and capital investments, leading to slow and steady growth [4] - In addition to its utility operations, NextEra Energy is one of the largest solar and wind power companies globally, capitalizing on the transition to cleaner energy sources [5][6] - The primary investment appeal of NextEra Energy lies in its clean energy business rather than its traditional utility operations [6]

Core Insights - Companies that have increased their dividends annually for 25 consecutive years are rare, with Medtronic, NextEra Energy, and Realty Income being highlighted as attractive options for dividend investors [1][2] Group 1: Medtronic - Medtronic has increased its dividend for 48 consecutive years, with a current yield of approximately 3.1%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% and the healthcare sector's average of 1.8% [3] - The company has faced slow product development and rising costs, impacting earnings growth, but new products are expected to drive revenue growth [4] - A spinoff of its diabetes business is anticipated to benefit earnings, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [5] Group 2: NextEra Energy - NextEra Energy has increased its dividend for 31 years, currently yielding around 3%, which is above the average utility yield of 2.7% [6] - The company boasts a remarkable 10% annualized dividend growth rate over the past decade, which is particularly impressive for a utility [7] - With a significant backlog of growth investments in solar and wind power, NextEra Energy is positioned for steady earnings and dividend growth [8] Group 3: Realty Income - Realty Income has achieved 30 consecutive annual dividend increases, offering a high yield of 5.5%, compared to the average REIT yield of 3.9% [9] - The company operates over 16,600 properties, focusing on net lease assets, which are considered low-risk [10] - Realty Income's portfolio is diversified, with 75% in retail properties and 25% in other sectors, providing stability and income generation potential [11] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Medtronic, NextEra Energy, and Realty Income present attractive businesses with long histories of growing dividends, making them suitable for long-term investors seeking high-yield stocks [12]

Core Insights - The AES Corporation reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 51 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents by 30.8% and improving 34.2% from 38 cents in the same quarter last year [1][9] - The increase in adjusted earnings was attributed to a lower adjusted tax rate and higher contributions from new renewable projects [1] - The company experienced a GAAP loss of 15 cents per share compared to GAAP earnings of 39 cents in the second quarter of 2024 [1] Revenue and Financial Performance - Total revenues for AES amounted to $2.86 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline due to lower non-regulated revenues, and missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.28 billion by 13.5% [3][9] - The total cost of sales in Q2 was $2.40 billion, up 0.5% year over year, while operating income fell 18.1% to $453 million from $553 million in the prior year [4] - Interest expenses decreased to $352 million, down 9.5% from $389 million in the same quarter last year [4] New Contracts and Backlog - During Q2 2025, AES secured new long-term power-purchase agreements (PPAs) for 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind, increasing its total backlog to 12 GW, with 5.2 GW currently under construction [5][9] Financial Condition - As of June 30, 2025, AES had cash and cash equivalents of $1.35 billion, down from $1.52 billion at the end of 2024 [6] - Non-recourse debt increased to $21.75 billion from $20.63 billion as of December 31, 2024 [6] - Net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2025 was $1.52 billion, compared to $0.68 billion in the same period of 2024 [6] Capital Expenditure and Guidance - Total capital expenditure for the first six months of 2025 was $2.59 billion, a decrease from $3.83 billion recorded in the previous year [7] - AES reaffirmed its 2025 earnings guidance, expecting adjusted earnings in the range of $2.10-$2.26 per share, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $2.14 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market is at all-time highs, making it challenging to find undervalued stocks, but there are still opportunities in dividend-paying stocks like utilities, airlines, and industrial companies [1][2]. Group 1: NextEra Energy - NextEra Energy is recognized for its focus on renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, but also has significant investments in natural gas and nuclear energy [4][7]. - The company has a forward dividend yield of 3.1% and is considered a good buy due to its current stock price being at a discount compared to its five-year average cash flow multiple [5][10]. - In 2024, natural gas and nuclear energy accounted for 69% and 10% of Florida Power and Light's net generating capacity, respectively, contributing significantly to NextEra's earnings [7]. Group 2: United Airlines - United Airlines trades at a low earnings multiple of just over eight times its estimated 2025 earnings, reflecting historical concerns about the airline industry [11]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams through loyalty programs and premium offerings, reducing reliance on main-cabin ticket sales [12]. - United Airlines is positioned to better absorb rising costs compared to low-cost carriers, making it a potentially strong long-term investment [13][14]. Group 3: Lockheed Martin - Lockheed Martin's stock has decreased by 24% from its all-time high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for dividend investors [15]. - The company has a strong backlog that exceeds a year's worth of sales, allowing for stable free cash flow and consistent capital returns to shareholders [16][17]. - With a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 and a forward yield of 2.9%, Lockheed Martin is seen as a reliable dividend stock at a favorable value [18].