Weight Loss Drugs Challenge Big Food As Diets Change - Moby THE GIST Americans are making healthier choices, and Big Food is staring down a $12 billion bill over the next decade. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Mounjaro and Wegovy have reached 20% of U.S. households. Big Food’s counterattack involves removing additives, shrinking packages, sprinkling in protein and fiber, and hoping Sun Chips can outrun semaglutide. WHAT HAPPENED About one in five U.S. households now has someone taking a GLP-1 drug ...

Core Insights - PepsiCo, Inc.'s PFNA is experiencing challenges due to pressured consumer spending and shifting preferences impacting traditional snack demand [2] - The company is focusing on its permissible snack portfolio to drive volume growth and restore momentum [2][4] Group 1: Performance and Strategy - PepsiCo is expanding its presence in permissible snacks through brands like Simply, Sun Chips, Stacy's, Quaker Rice Cakes, Siete, and Sabra, which emphasize healthier attributes [3] - Sun Chips is the leading permissible salty snack brand, projected to generate over $700 million in annual sales [3] - The company is refreshing legacy brands such as Lay's and Tostitos by removing artificial colors and flavors to align with health-forward snacking trends [3] Group 2: Market Challenges and Outlook - The effectiveness of permissible snacks in offsetting softness in core categories and driving sustained volume recovery remains uncertain [4] - Success will depend on balancing affordability, taste, and health credentials while executing effective pricing and distribution strategies [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper are also adopting a "permissible" strategy, focusing on better-for-you beverage options to align with changing consumer preferences [5][6][7] - Coca-Cola is expanding its zero- and low-sugar offerings and functional hydration products to maintain relevance with health-conscious consumers [6] - Keurig Dr Pepper emphasizes lower-sugar drinks and functional refreshment, particularly in cold beverages and coffee, to stabilize volumes [7] Group 4: Financial Performance - PepsiCo's shares have declined by 6.1% over the past three months, contrasting with the industry's growth of 3.8% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.33X, slightly below the industry average of 18.00X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PepsiCo's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 0.5%, while 2026 earnings are expected to grow by 5.4% [11]

Core Insights - PepsiCo is focusing on functional nutrition as a key growth strategy, aiming to meet consumer demand for products that offer health benefits beyond taste, such as protein and prebiotics [1][8] - The company plans to make functional nutrition a core pillar of its innovation strategy by 2025, targeting both beverages and convenient foods [1][8] Beverage Innovations - PepsiCo is launching functional beverages like Pepsi Prebiotic, Propel Protein Water, and enhanced Muscle Milk, designed to combine familiar flavors with health benefits [2][8] - The company is also enhancing Gatorade with lower sugar and added nutritional benefits, allowing it to compete with emerging functional beverage brands [2] Food Portfolio Enhancements - The food segment is seeing the introduction of protein-rich and fiber-boosted snacks under brands like Doritos, Quaker, Sun Chips, and PopCorners, modernizing these iconic brands for health-conscious consumers [3][8] - This strategy aims to create new consumption occasions and strengthen long-term brand loyalty [3] Competitive Landscape - Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper are also enhancing their portfolios with functional beverage innovations to meet consumer wellness demands [4][5][6] - Coca-Cola is focusing on zero-sugar and functional hydration products, while Keurig Dr Pepper is innovating in coffee and cold beverages with health-forward formulations [5][6] Financial Performance - PepsiCo shares have increased by 4.4% over the past three months, compared to the industry growth of 6.4% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.37X, slightly below the industry average of 18.22X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 0.6% decline in earnings for 2025, with a projected growth of 5.4% for 2026 [10]

Core Insights - PepsiCo is focusing on innovation to drive growth and adapt its portfolio to changing consumer preferences, particularly in health and functionality [1][8] - The company is launching new products in both beverages and snacks, targeting health-conscious consumers with cleaner ingredients and functional benefits [2][3] Beverage Segment - PepsiCo's innovation pipeline includes successful products like Pepsi Zero Sugar, which is experiencing double-digit growth, and new functional beverages such as Propel Protein Water and Gatorade Lower Sugar [2][8] - The acquisition of poppi, generating approximately $525 million in retail sales, underscores PepsiCo's strategy to enhance its position in the functional beverage market [2] Snack Segment - The company is revitalizing snack brands like Doritos and Cheetos with healthier ingredients and added functionality, contributing to a $2 billion-plus permissible snack portfolio [3][8] - Sun Chips are projected to exceed $700 million in annual sales, highlighting the effectiveness of PepsiCo's innovation strategy in aligning health, taste, and value [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Coca-Cola and Keurig Dr Pepper are also prioritizing innovation to meet consumer demands, with Coca-Cola expanding into lower-sugar and functional beverages, and KDP focusing on product offerings and delivery systems [4][5][6] Financial Performance - PepsiCo's shares have increased by 1.5% over the past three months, contrasting with a 0.5% decline in the industry [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PepsiCo is 16.83X, slightly below the industry average of 17.42X [9] - Earnings estimates for 2025 indicate a slight decline of 0.6%, while 2026 estimates suggest a growth of 5.6%, with recent upward revisions in EPS estimates [10]

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo, Inc. is anticipated to experience top-line growth with a decline in bottom-line performance in its upcoming third-quarter 2025 report, scheduled for October 9 [1][10]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues stands at $23.9 billion, reflecting a 2.4% decrease from the previous year's figure [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $2.27, indicating a 1.7% decline from the $2.31 reported in the same quarter last year [2]. Segment Performance - The international business is projected to be a key growth driver, contributing approximately 40% of net revenues, with expected revenue growth of 2% year over year in the International Beverages Franchise segment [5][6]. - The North America Beverages segment is also expected to show momentum, with a 1% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by strong performance from Pepsi Zero Sugar and effective marketing campaigns [7][8]. - The Quaker Foods segment is showing signs of recovery, with initiatives aimed at enhancing value propositions and capturing market share in the health-conscious food category [9]. Cost and Margin Challenges - The North America food business is facing challenges due to subdued demand and shifting consumer preferences, with expected flat revenue performance in the third quarter [13][14]. - Rising supply-chain costs and inflationary pressures are anticipated to negatively impact gross and operating margins, with projections indicating a contraction of 20 basis points in adjusted gross margin and 60 basis points in adjusted operating margin year over year [16][17]. Stock Performance and Valuation - PepsiCo shares have increased by 5.6% over the past three months, outperforming the broader industry and Consumer Staples sector, but underperforming the S&P 500 index [18][20]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 16.93X, which is below the S&P 500 average of 23.35X, indicating a valuation discount despite solid revenue growth [21][23]. Investment Outlook - The company has consistently delivered revenue growth and profitability, supported by a diverse product portfolio and global presence [26]. - However, external risks such as inflation, operational challenges, and changing consumer behavior necessitate a cautious investment outlook [27]. - Despite these challenges, PepsiCo's strong fundamentals, innovative product offerings, and digital transformation initiatives position it well for long-term growth potential [28][29].

Core Insights - The competition between The Coca-Cola Company (KO) and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) is a long-standing rivalry in the global beverage market, with Coca-Cola known for its classic carbonated drinks and PepsiCo offering a diversified portfolio that includes snacks and other beverages [1][2] Group 1: Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola commands a leading share in the soft drinks industry with $30 billion brands and has achieved value share gains for 17 consecutive quarters [3][4] - The company's strategy focuses on affordability, digital engagement, and premium innovation, utilizing bold marketing campaigns and AI-driven tools to enhance efficiency and engagement [5][6] - Coca-Cola adapts quickly to market changes and consumer preferences, leveraging local sourcing and strategic hedging to maintain momentum despite global challenges [7] Group 2: PepsiCo (PEP) - PepsiCo's investment case is supported by its unmatched scale and diversified portfolio, with strong market share growth in beverages, particularly through products like Pepsi Zero Sugar [8][9] - The company employs a multipronged strategy that includes refining price-pack architecture, expanding into functional beverages, and enhancing its international presence [10][11] - PepsiCo has seen upward revisions in earnings estimates, reflecting optimism about future profitability, and its "One North America" initiative aims to integrate operations for better efficiency [12][23] Group 3: Stock Performance & Valuation - In the past three months, PepsiCo's stock has increased by 8%, while Coca-Cola's stock has declined by 3.8%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [14] - PepsiCo trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 17.66X compared to Coca-Cola's 22.26X, making it more attractively priced [15][17] - Earnings estimates for PepsiCo have risen by 1.7% and 1.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while Coca-Cola's estimates have remained mostly unchanged [20][21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to deliver about 70% more productivity in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with a focus on optimizing cost structures across all business segments [12][14][36] - The North America market integration is anticipated to create significant efficiency and cost reduction opportunities, leveraging technology and data investments [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The food business is focusing on stabilizing the category and improving competitiveness within subsegments, with successful initiatives in brands like Cheetos and Doritos [20][21] - The away-from-home business is highlighted as a growth area, with high single-digit growth reported in the beverage segment [26][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business is performing well, with mid-single-digit growth expected to continue, particularly in LATAM and parts of Europe, while China shows some weakness [49][50] - The company is seeing strong performance in no-sugar colas and energy drinks, with a focus on expanding these categories globally [74][75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is investing in technology and innovation to enhance productivity and drive growth, particularly in the away-from-home segment [36][37] - There is a strategic focus on permissible snacks and healthier offerings, with a goal to increase market share in these categories [41][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses confidence in returning to the low end of the long-term growth algorithm, driven by sustained international growth and improvements in North America [54][56] - The company acknowledges challenges in the external environment but remains optimistic about productivity initiatives and market positioning [34][35] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on portfolio transformation, particularly in the permissible snacks category, which has grown to over $2 billion [41][42] - There is a commitment to eliminating artificial ingredients across both food and beverage segments, aligning with consumer preferences for cleaner labels [82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on productivity initiatives and asset footprint - Management discussed multi-year productivity strategies, emphasizing technology investments and cost structure optimization across all business lines [9][10][12] Question: Key initiatives for North America top line improvement - The focus is on stabilizing the food category and improving competitiveness, with specific brand relaunches planned for Lay's and Tostitos [20][21][22] Question: Growth potential of the away-from-home business - Away-from-home is a significant growth opportunity, with higher margins compared to retail, and the company plans to invest more resources in this channel [28][29] Question: Visibility on full-year earnings and reinvestment strategy - Management expressed high confidence in productivity acceleration and outlined plans for reinvestment in technology and value initiatives [34][36] Question: Drivers of international beverage success - The beverage segment is performing well due to strong platforms in no-sugar colas and energy drinks, with a focus on leveraging partnerships and distribution [74][75] Question: Evolution of cleaner ingredients in beverages - The company is committed to following consumer trends towards natural ingredients and is actively working on eliminating artificial components from its products [82] Question: Satisfaction with energy drink strategy - Management sees energy drinks as a growing category and is participating through ownership and distribution strategies, with plans for future innovations [88]