Key Takeaways GM leads U.S. auto sales, driven by pickups and SUVs across Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac.GM logged about $2B in software revenues YTD, while deferred software revenues jumped over 90% to $5B by Q3.Ford is resetting its EV strategy. It expects $19.5B in special items and targets Model e breakeven by 2029.General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have long been fierce rivals in the American auto industry—but which stock looks like the better investment now? Both automakers have been resilient and w ...

Core Insights - General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) are two leading American automakers that have shown resilience through economic cycles and are transitioning towards electric and software-defined vehicles, with both companies reporting better-than-expected results in Q3 2025 [1][2] Q3 Results Review - Ford's Q3 2025 adjusted EPS was 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents but down from 49 cents in the previous year. Consolidated revenues reached $50.5 billion, a 9.3% increase year-over-year, with total automotive revenues at $47.2 billion, surpassing the estimate of $42.7 billion [4] - General Motors reported an adjusted EPS of $2.80, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.28 but down from $2.96 a year ago. Revenues were $48.59 billion, exceeding the estimate of $43.61 billion but slightly lower than $48.76 billion from the previous year [6] Growth Drivers - Ford Pro is a significant growth driver for Ford, supported by strong demand for Super Duty trucks and expanding software and service offerings, with paid subscriptions increasing by 8% to 818,000 in Q3 [5] - GM's software and services business is gaining momentum, with approximately $2 billion in revenues recognized year-to-date from offerings like Super Cruise and OnStar, and deferred revenues reaching $5 billion, up over 90% year-over-year. OnStar's subscriber base grew 34% to over 11 million [7] Outlook - GM has raised its free cash flow (FCF) and EPS guidance for 2025, forecasting adjusted automotive FCF at $10-$11 billion and adjusted diluted EPS at $9.75-$10.50, indicating a stronger 2026 [8][9] - Ford has reduced its 2025 EBIT and free cash flow outlook due to supply disruptions from a fire at Novelis' aluminum plant, expecting a fourth-quarter EBIT headwind of $1.5-$2 billion and a free cash flow impact of $2-$3 billion [10] Balance Sheet - GM had total automotive liquidity of $35.7 billion as of September 30, 2025, while Ford ended Q3 with over $54 billion in liquidity. GM has a lower long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio compared to Ford [11] Dividend and Buyback Appeal - Ford offers a high dividend yield of over 4%, targeting distributions of 40-50% of FCF, while GM's dividend yield is less than 1%. GM has repurchased over $3.5 billion in stock year-to-date, enhancing shareholder value [12][13] Valuation - Ford is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 9.74X, above its five-year median of 7.48X, while GM's forward earnings multiple is at 6.26X, slightly above its median of 5.54X [14] EPS Estimates - Ford's 2025 EPS consensus indicates a year-over-year decline of 41.3%, while GM's 2025 EPS consensus implies a decline of 3%, with both companies expected to see an uptick in 2026 [17][18] Investment Recommendation - GM is viewed as a stronger investment option due to its upgraded guidance, expanding software revenue, and disciplined cost management, while Ford faces challenges from supply disruptions and a projected EPS decline [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is losing confidence in Ford Motor Co. under CEO Jim Farley's leadership, with analysts questioning his focus and effectiveness in managing the company [4][7][9]. Financial Performance - The consensus target price for Ford's stock is $11.05, while it currently trades at $12.09, indicating a slight overvaluation [2]. - Ford's share price has increased by less than 11% over the past year, compared to a 14% rise in the S&P 500 and a 31% increase for General Motors [2]. Leadership and Management Concerns - CEO Jim Farley is criticized for not dedicating enough time to core business operations, as evidenced by his involvement in a summit unrelated to Ford's immediate business needs [5][6]. - Analysts express concern over Farley's focus on non-essential activities, such as his podcast, which does not contribute to managing the company or attracting customers [8][9]. Electric Vehicle and Recall Issues - Analysts highlight Ford's struggles in the electric vehicle market and significant recall problems as major reasons for their lack of confidence in the company [7]. - Ford's recall issues have been severe, with the company facing a recall of 1.1 million vehicles for rearview camera problems, further damaging its reputation [11].

Core Insights - Ford reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with automotive revenues rising nearly 5% to $46.9 billion and EPS at 37 cents, surpassing estimates [1][8] - The company has increased its expected tariff impact for 2025 from $1.5 billion to $2 billion, with Q2 tariff costs amounting to $800 million [2][8] - Ford's updated full-year guidance projects adjusted EBIT between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion, reflecting the impact of tariffs [7][8] Financial Performance - Ford Blue segment generated $25.8 billion in revenues (down 3% YoY) and $661 million in EBIT (down from $1.67 billion YoY) [6] - Model e recorded $2.4 billion in revenues (up 105% YoY) but a negative EBIT of $1.3 billion (wider than the previous year's loss) [6] - Ford Pro revenues totaled $18.8 billion (up 11% YoY) with EBIT at $2.3 billion (down from $2.5 billion YoY) [6] - Ford Credit generated $3.2 billion in revenues (up roughly 1% YoY) and $645 million in EBT (up 88% YoY) [6] Tariff Impact - Ford's gross tariff cost forecast has increased to $3 billion, with plans to offset $1 billion through mitigation efforts [2][4] - General Motors reported a $1.1 billion impact from tariffs in Q2, while Stellantis faced a $350 million tariff drag [3] Market Position - Ford's stock has risen approximately 10% year-to-date, contrasting with declines in General Motors and Stellantis shares [9] - The company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.27, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.7 [12] Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS indicates a 38% decline YoY, with a projected growth of 12.7% for 2026 [14] - Ford's commercial division, Ford Pro, is experiencing growth due to demand for Super Duty trucks and software offerings [15] - The company maintains strong liquidity with $46.6 billion in total liquidity, including $28.4 billion in cash [16] Challenges - Ford's EV business is currently operating at a loss, and rising recall costs are impacting margins, with a $570 million charge related to a major SUV recall in Q2 [17] - The company has been leading the auto industry in recalls in 2025, which adds to its operational challenges [17]

Core Viewpoint - Ford is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 30, with an EPS estimate of 34 cents and automotive revenues of $41.25 billion, reflecting a decline from the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The EPS estimate has increased by 3 cents over the past week, but indicates a 27.6% decline compared to Q2 2024. Revenue estimates suggest an 8% decrease from the same quarter last year [2][3]. - For 2025, the consensus estimate for Ford's automotive revenues is $161.6 billion, representing a 6% year-over-year decline, while the full-year EPS is projected at $1.14, indicating a 38% contraction [3]. Sales Performance - Ford sold 612,095 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 14.2% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for trucks and hybrids. F-Series truck sales rose by 11.5% to 222,459 units, and the Maverick model achieved record sales of 48,041 units, up 26.3% [6]. - Sales of electrified vehicles increased by 6.6% to 82,886 units, although fully electric car sales dropped by 31%, while hybrid sales surged by 23.5% [7]. Financial Challenges - Ford is facing a $570 million recall charge in Q2, alongside pressures from EV losses and tariffs that may impact margins [6][8]. - The revenue estimates for key segments include $23.27 billion for Ford Blue (down 12.7% year-over-year), $1.38 billion for Ford Model e (up from $1.14 billion in Q2 2024), and $16.4 billion for Ford Pro (down 3.5% year-over-year) [9][10][11]. Market Position and Valuation - Year-to-date, Ford's shares have increased by 15%, outperforming both Tesla and General Motors, which have seen declines of 17.7% and 0.3%, respectively [12]. - Ford is trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 0.28, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.77, indicating a relatively cheap valuation [15]. Strategic Outlook - Ford's hybrid strategy is gaining traction as full EV adoption slows, with rising hybrid sales providing better fuel efficiency without the range anxiety associated with EVs [18]. - The Ford Pro division, focusing on commercial vehicles and services, is experiencing strong demand, particularly for Super Duty trucks, and is expected to be a key driver of future earnings growth [19]. - Financially, Ford ended Q1 2025 with $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in total liquidity, alongside an attractive dividend yield of around 5% [20].

Company Overview - Ford is planning to invest up to €4.4 billion ($4.8 billion) into its German operations to reduce debt and enhance competitiveness, as its German arm has €5.8 billion ($6.3 billion) in debt [1][2] - The investment aims to stabilize Ford's operations in Europe, which have been struggling due to rising costs, weak demand, and competition from Chinese EV makers [1][2] Financial Performance - Ford has been incurring losses in Europe for several years, leading to cost-cutting measures, including plans to cut 4,000 jobs by 2027 [2] - The Model e division, focused on electric vehicles, reported a loss of $5.07 billion in 2024, an increase from a $4.7 billion loss in 2023, with expectations of another loss of $5-5.5 billion in the current year [7] - The Ford Blue segment, which includes traditional gas-powered vehicles, is projected to see EBIT drop from $5.3 billion in 2024 to $3.5-4 billion in 2025 due to lower sales and product mix changes [8] Segment Performance - Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle business, experienced a 15% revenue increase to $67 billion in 2024, with EBIT rising from $7.2 billion to $9 billion, driven by strong demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans [9] - The company is focusing on software and service subscriptions as potential growth drivers moving forward [9] Liquidity and Dividends - Ford ended 2024 with $47 billion in liquidity, including $28 billion in cash, supporting its Ford+ strategy and cost-cutting initiatives [11] - The company offers a dividend yield of over 6%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's average of 1.31%, and plans to return 40-50% of free cash flow to investors [11][13] Market Challenges - Ford faces challenges from proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, which could increase costs and disrupt operations [14] - The company anticipates a steep decline in first-quarter 2025 adjusted EBIT, projecting it to break even compared to $2.7 billion in the first quarter of 2024 [15] - Full-year adjusted EBIT is forecasted to be between $7-$8.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024, with rising warranty costs and incentives further pressuring margins [15] Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a decline in 2025 sales and EPS by 4% and 22%, respectively, but anticipates growth in 2026 [17] - Despite restructuring efforts and strong performance in Ford Pro, near-term headwinds such as weak demand and rising competition are expected to impact profitability [19]