TEENIE WEENIE服装及IP授权周边

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锦泓集团(603518):先发布局,十年一剑
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 12:12
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - Jin Hong Group is a leading fashion group in China, with a diverse brand matrix that includes high-end women's wear brands VGRASS, mid-to-high-end retro academy style brand TEENIEWEENIE, and high-end boutique brand Yuanxian, catering to different consumer segments and sharing resources for product development and channel expansion [3][17] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.395 billion yuan in 2024, with TEENIEWEENIE contributing 3.477 billion yuan (80% of total revenue) and VGRASS contributing 780 million yuan (18% of total revenue) [3][23] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 4.786 billion yuan, 5.127 billion yuan, and 5.433 billion yuan respectively, with net profit growth of 8%/23%/11% [5][96] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jin Hong Group is a top-tier fashion group in China, focusing on high-end women's wear design, production, and sales, with brands targeting various consumer demographics [17][31] Brand Performance - TEENIEWEENIE is the core brand, with a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in 2024 and a gross margin of 67%. The brand has shown a CAGR of 8% from 2018 to 2024 [4][46] - VGRASS, a high-end women's wear brand, generated 780 million yuan in 2024, down 19% year-on-year [31][23] - Yuanxian, focusing on traditional cloud brocade craftsmanship, achieved a revenue of 81.37 million yuan in 2024, growing 64% year-on-year [5][72] Financial Analysis - The company maintained a gross margin of approximately 70%, with 2024's gross margin at 68.63% [78] - The company has been managing its financial expenses effectively, with a gradual reduction in debt pressure expected to enhance profit margins [83][84] - Inventory turnover days have decreased to 255 days, indicating improved operational efficiency [88] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9%/7%/6% for 2025-2027, with net profit expected to grow by 8%/23%/11% during the same period [92][96] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.52 [6][93] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that Jin Hong Group's valuation is below the industry average, with a P/E ratio of 11/9/8 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for valuation appreciation due to its rich IP resources and cultural heritage [93][96]