大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 20 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 海南离岛免税政策 5 大调整落地 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（10 月第 3 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-potential opportunities and monitoring peak trends in popular themes, particularly focusing on quantitative screening of four types of patterns and trading heat indicators [2][9]. - The report identifies a total of 13 thematic indices showing a bottoming pattern, primarily in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, while 17 indices have broken out, mainly in non-bank financials, utilities, food and beverage, and defense industries [12][9]. - The report highlights a decline in trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes, with humanoid robots' trading heat dropping to 61% and Deepseek's to 42%, indicating a potential cooling in market interest [3][16]. Group 2 - The report outlines the monitoring of leading stocks corresponding to popular themes, noting that the closing price of Changsheng Bearing is 12.8% below its 60-day moving average, while Daily Interaction is 10.8% below its 60-day moving average [16][20]. - The report indicates that there are currently no thematic indices in an accelerated upward trend, with only three indices showing a main rising pattern, primarily in coal and textile sectors [12][9]. - The report suggests that the thematic investment data system will be updated regularly to provide investors with objective references for capturing market trends [2][9].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline on October 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.95% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3.36%. The total trading volume for the A-shares remained at 1.95 trillion, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - All sectors saw a decline, with previously strong sectors like power equipment (-4.99%), electronics (-4.17%), and machinery (-3.69%) leading the losses. In contrast, banking (-0.32%), transportation (-0.53%), and textiles (-0.61%) showed relative resilience [2] Strategy Analysis - The current growth industry cycle is transitioning into a healthy adjustment phase, characterized by a significant differentiation in performance among sectors. The strong growth style is experiencing a pullback, consistent with the characteristics of a healthy adjustment period where "growth styles rise and fall significantly" [3] - The transition from the first phase of the growth industry cycle to the second phase is marked by a healthy adjustment period. This occurs when two or more of the key drivers—performance, liquidity, and catalysts—show signs of marginal weakening. Currently, liquidity is constrained due to recent adjustments in margin financing rates by brokerages, and catalysts are weakened by increasing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [3][4] Future Outlook - Historically, healthy adjustment periods are typically short, lasting around one month with maximum adjustments of 10-20%. A potential opportunity for the second phase of the market could arise around early November, driven by the expected strong performance in Q3 earnings reports and possible easing of U.S.-China trade tensions during the APEC summit [4] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are also expected to boost market sentiment [4] Investment Strategy - In the short term, the market is expected to continue experiencing "high-low cuts," while the long-term trend remains focused on the growth industry cycle and sectors with strong performance support. Potential sectors for rotation include finance (banking, insurance), utilities, steel, petrochemicals, food and beverage, and home appliances [8] - The core long-term investment themes include the establishment of a new growth industry cycle, particularly in AI computing infrastructure, which is expected to have a significant impact on sectors such as TMT, computing (CPO/PCB/liquid cooling/fiber optics), applications (robots/games/software), and military industry [8][9] - The second key theme focuses on sectors with strong performance support, including power equipment (wind power/storage/batteries/power supply), non-ferrous metals (rare earths/precious metals), and machinery (construction machinery). These sectors are expected to benefit from high demand and favorable market conditions [9]

（原标题：1.55亿元资金今日流入纺织服饰股） | 603839 | 安正时尚 | -9.87 | 6.62 | -1829.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000017 | 深中华A | -0.28 | 11.36 | -1747.88 | | 300877 | 金春股份 | 0.36 | 4.96 | -1708.02 | | 600156 | 华升股份 | -3.08 | 2.53 | -1596.06 | | 002674 | 兴业科技 | -4.01 | 2.26 | -1553.18 | | 300005 | 探路者 | -2.12 | 1.44 | -1470.14 | | 002394 | 联发股份 | -2.64 | 5.06 | -1386.82 | | 600177 | 雅戈尔 | -0.52 | 0.50 | -1253.31 | | 002154 | 报喜鸟 | -0.74 | 3.40 | -1229.37 | | 300918 | 南山智尚 | -2.70 | 1.58 | -1215.66 | | 300945 | 曼卡龙 | -3 ...

证券时报•数据宝统计，今日有1个行业主力资金净流入，30个行业主力资金净流出。资金净流入金额最 大的行业为纺织服饰，涨跌幅-0.61%，整体换手率2.64%，成交量较前一个交易日变动5.31%，主力资 金净流量1.55亿元；今日资金净流出最大的行业为电子，涨跌幅-4.17%，整体换手率3.14%，成交量较 前一个交易日变动11.42%，主力资金净流量-257.03亿元。（数据宝） | 行业名称 | 成交量 | 成交量 较昨日 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿股） | 增减 | （%） | （%） | 主力资金 净流入（亿元） | | | | （%） | | | | | 纺织服饰 | 18.49 | 5.31 | 2.64 | -0.61 | 1.55 | | 石油石化 | 16.55 | 19.55 | 0.45 | -1.20 | -1.96 | | 美容护理 | 1.99 | -14.12 | 1.95 | -2.12 | -2.19 | | 钢铁 | 43.39 | 14.17 | 2.20 | -0.81 | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.95% to close at 3839.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 3.04% to 12688.94 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 3.36% to 2935.37 points [1] - Overall, the market saw more stocks decline than rise, with 598 stocks increasing and 4781 stocks decreasing, while 53 stocks remained unchanged [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 193.81 billion yuan, slightly increasing by 7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - All primary industries in the Shenwan classification experienced declines, with the coal, transportation, textile and apparel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors showing relative resilience [1] - The sectors that led the decline included power equipment, electronics, machinery, automobiles, and national defense, with respective declines of 4.99%, 4.17%, 3.69%, 3.55%, and 3.39% [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors included consecutive boards, speculative boards, first boards, Hainan Free Trade Port, duty-free shops, air transportation, FTSE Russell, banks, lithium battery electrolytes, Xinjiang revitalization, gold and jewelry, animal vaccines, pig industry, and dairy [2] - Conversely, sectors such as charging piles, power equipment, and wireless charging experienced pullbacks [11]

Choice统计显示，10月17日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有581只，下跌个股有4528只，平盘个 股有45只。不含当日上市新股，共有44只个股涨停，31只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要集 中在纺织服饰、化工、交通运输、机械设备、医药生物等行业。 （原标题：今日44只个股涨停 主要集中在纺织服饰、化工等行业） ...

行 业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2025 年 10 月 15 日 内需改善、外需波动，全球化产能价值凸显 看好 ——纺织服装行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 相关研究 - 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 内需复苏有韧性，纺织品出口好于服装鞋类，越南等海外产能竞争力凸显。1）内需： 1-8 月我国服装鞋帽、针纺织品零售额 9400 亿元（同比+2.9%），其中 7/8 月分别同 比+1.8%/+3.1%，呈现温和复苏态势。2）外需：1-8 月我国纺织服装出口额 1973 亿 美元（同比-0.3%），其中纺织品 945 亿美元（同比+1.6%），服装及衣着附件 1028 亿美元（同比-1.7%）。相较之下，1-9 月越南纺 ...

关税反制开启，市场恢复理性并修复。4月8日开始，A股市场开始交易关税反制逻辑，扩大内需与自主可控成为市场主线。4月8 日、4月9日，以农林牧渔为代表的消费板块、国防军工等行业先后强势上行，科技板块明显修复。转债跟随权益市场反弹，4月 8日至4月11日，中证转债反弹2.45%，高价转债涨幅则达5.38%。 贸易摩擦延续，市场避险情绪抬升。4月12日至4月20日，贸易摩擦延续，市场避险情绪浓厚，以银行为代表的金融地产板块及 石化、公用事业等为代表的红利行业表现相对占优，转债跟随大盘整体窄幅震荡。 贸易摩擦缓和，市场温和反弹。4月21日开始，贸易摩擦逐步出现缓和迹象，先进制造、科技板块修复带动大盘回升，金融地产 板块则开启回调。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 向后看，短期内权益向上弹性受限背景下，资金流入再次大幅推升转债估值的链条难以延续，建议短期内保持中性偏低仓位静 候时机，关注低价与条款共振的转债，把握资金面分歧与政策多变市场环境中的波段交易机会，尤其是容易受关税政策影响的 出口链转债或存在较多的TACO交易机会。 4月，关税1.0时期的市场分阶段复盘 关税升级前期， ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the steady growth of the domestic consumption market during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with a notable performance from Fast Retailing, which reported a revenue of 34,005.39 billion yen for FY2025, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The apparel accessories industry is experiencing a stable growth trajectory, with leading companies like Weixing Co. expected to enhance their market share in overseas markets [8][9] - The retail performance of 361 Degrees shows healthy growth, with a 10% increase in offline retail sales for its main brand in Q3 2025 [11] Market Trends - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in average daily sales across consumption-related industries, with significant growth in digital products and automotive sales [4][5] - In Shanghai, online and offline consumption payments reached 796 billion yuan during the holiday period, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year increase [5] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.6% [5] Company Performance - Fast Retailing's business segments showed varied performance, with Japan's UNIQLO segment achieving a revenue of 10,260 billion yen, up 10.1%, while the overseas UNIQLO segment reported a revenue of 19,102 billion yen, up 11.6% [4] - Weixing Co. reported a revenue of 4.674 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.66% increase, with a net profit of 700 million yuan, up 25.48% [8] - 361 Degrees reported a 20% increase in e-commerce platform retail sales in Q3 2025, indicating a strong online presence [11] Industry Dynamics - The apparel accessories market is projected to grow steadily, with the zipper industry in China being a significant contributor, holding a market size of 455 billion yuan in 2021 [8][9] - The global zipper market is dominated by a few key players, with YKK holding a substantial market share, while Weixing Co. is positioned to increase its share in overseas markets [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and global expansion strategies for companies like YKK and Weixing Co. to maintain competitive advantages [9][10]