| 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 有色金属 | 1.66 | 806.93 | 82.56 | 海星股份 | 10.03 | | 钢铁 | 0.98 | 114.66 | 35.33 | 包钢股份 | 5.97 | | 煤炭 | 0.84 | 68.80 | 83.14 | 云煤能源 | 10.05 | | 基础化工 | 0.74 | 686.98 | 35.40 | 富淼科技 | 20.02 | | 国防军工 | 0.74 | 561.31 | 6.91 | 天秦装备 | 11.01 | | 交通运输 | 0.63 | 161.00 | -0.13 | 远大控股 | 10.03 | | 银行 | 0.63 | 224.10 | 25.79 | 厦门银行 | 3.27 | | 食品饮料 | 0.46 | 264.10 | 31.25 | 泸州老窖 | 3.11 | | 石油石化 | 0.3 ...

2025 年 07 月 17 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(HKD) | 107 | 公司基本资讯 股价相对大盘走势 业绩概要： | 产业别 | | 纺织服饰 | | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/07/16) | | 91.85 | | 恒生指数(2025/07/16) | | 24,517.8 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 104.97/64.06 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 2,807.21 | | H 股数(百万) | | 2,807.21 | | H 市值(亿元) | | 2,119.45 | | | | 汇丰国际信托 | | 主要股东 | | 有限公司 | | | | (52.7%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 21.86 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 4.20 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -2.91% 8.66% 32.44% | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a focus on further developing its outdoor brand portfolio and maintaining a multi-brand, global strategy [3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 10.9% in 2025, 9.5% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027, reaching revenues of 785.3 billion, 860.1 billion, and 934.5 billion respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline by 15.8% in 2025, followed by growth of 11.6% in 2026 and 10.3% in 2027, amounting to 131.3 billion, 146.6 billion, and 161.6 billion respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA brand revenue grew in the mid-single digits. Other brands saw significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its franchise store operations and enhanced its e-commerce structure to improve efficiency [1]. Brand Analysis - FILA's performance was stable, with notable growth in children's and trendy lines after adjustments made in 2024. The brand is expanding into professional sports and outdoor products [2]. - Other brands like Descente and Kolon Sports reported over 40% and 70% revenue growth respectively, indicating strong performance in the women's sports segment [2]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for $290 million is expected to enhance the company's outdoor market presence and support international expansion [2]. Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates a revenue increase from 62.36 billion in 2023 to 78.53 billion in 2025, with a projected net profit of 13.13 billion in 2025 [4][3]. - The report outlines a decrease in net profit margin from 34.86% in 2024 to 17.53% in 2025, reflecting anticipated challenges [4]. Market Data - The company's stock closed at HKD 89.80, with a 12-month price range of HKD 65.90 to HKD 106.30, and a market capitalization of HKD 252.09 billion [5].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 流水低单位数增长，库存保持健康水平 ---李宁 2025Q2 营运情况点评 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025Q2 营运情况。李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）全平台零售流 水同比增长低单位数。 点评： 终端表现延续 Q1 态势。2025Q2 李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）全平台零 售流水同比增长低单位数，基本延续 Q1 增长态势。分渠道来看，线下 渠道流水同比下降低单位数，其中直营渠道流水同比下降中单位数，批 发渠道流水同比增长低单位数；电商渠道流水同比增长中单位数，保持 优于线下渠道的零售增速表现。 跑步健身品类表现持续领先。根据公司公开交流内容，Q2 跑步及健身品 类表现继续领先大盘，预计流水同增高单位数，整体上半年跑步品类表 现符合预期；篮球品类仍有承压；运动生活品类 Q2 流水同比基本持平； 在户外、羽毛球等较小规模品类上保持较快增长。 渠道门店保持稳健策略。截至 6 月 30 日，李宁销售点数量（不包括李宁 YOUNG）较年初净减少 18 个至 6099 个，较 Q1 末净增加 11 个；李宁 YOUNG 销售点数量较 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 16 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指坚守 3500 点，创业板指涨超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3505.00 | -0.42% | -14.65 | | 深证成指 | 10744.56 | 0.56% | 60.04 | | 沪深 300 | 4019.06 | 0.03% | 1.40 | | 创业板 | 2235.05 | 1.73% | 37.98 | | 科创 50 | 996.25 | 0.39% | 3.86 | | 北证 50 | 1412.12 | -1.15% | -16.45 | 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.61% | 煤炭 | -1.92% | ERP 概念 | 3.35% | 低辐射玻璃 （Low- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][11] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's retail sales recorded low single-digit growth year-on-year, with a slowdown compared to Q1. E-commerce sales showed mid-single-digit growth, while discounts remained under pressure. The inventory-to-sales ratio improved to four months [3][4][5] - The company has a healthy channel inventory and cash operating situation, with marketing efforts expected to drive brand growth in the long term despite short-term profit pressures due to increased brand investment [3][11] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -16.8%, +12.8%, and +7.6% respectively [11][12] Retail Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) was 6,099, a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 year-to-date. The number of Li Ning YOUNG sales points was 1,435, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 year-to-date [2][3] - The retail channel (direct operation) recorded a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth. E-commerce virtual store business achieved mid-single-digit growth [2][3] Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy focuses on two main lines: NBA (Yang Hansheng) and the Olympics (COC). The marketing expense ratio is expected to maintain a low double-digit level for the year, with significantly higher rates in the second half compared to the first half [3][5] - The company is launching limited products and personal logos in collaboration with NBA players, while also promoting a new product line centered around the Olympics and technology [5][11] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.5% in 2025, with expected revenues of 28.81 billion yuan, 30.24 billion yuan, and 31.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12][16] - The expected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15.4 [12][13]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 623.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 835.6 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2197.07 points, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 387.28 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 992.39 points, down 0.21%, with a trading volume of 22.92 billion yuan [1] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1458.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.38 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong sectors included machinery, public utilities, oil and petrochemicals, textiles, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals [2] - Active concepts included PEEK materials, humanoid robots, geothermal energy, and innovative drugs [2] - Weak sectors included real estate, media, securities, education, insurance, and retail [2] Fund Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26.576 billion yuan [3] - The net outflow from the ChiNext was 12.112 billion yuan, and from the CSI 300 was 6.366 billion yuan [4] - Only four sectors saw net inflows: machinery (394 million yuan), home appliances (117 million yuan), coal (38 million yuan), and oil and petrochemicals (37 million yuan) [4] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2089 stocks saw net inflows, with 37 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [5] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Zhongji Xuchuang, with 497 million yuan [6] - Conversely, 3048 stocks experienced net outflows, with 92 stocks seeing over 100 million yuan in net outflows [7] - BYD had the highest net outflow at 1.308 billion yuan [8] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 33.89 million yuan, with 17 stocks being net bought and 14 stocks net sold [9] - The stock with the highest institutional net buy was Xiangyang Bearing, with about 111 million yuan [10]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

Group 1 - The report highlights that China is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, with economic indicators resembling the later stages of Japan's third consumption society and the brand consumption phase in the US [1] - For essential consumption, the investment strategy focuses on low-valuation, high-quality growth stocks with high dividend yields, particularly in the food and beverage and textile sectors [1] - In the optional consumption sector, there are signs of improvement in macroeconomic data, suggesting a potential turning point, with recommendations to select companies showing operational improvements based on financial reports [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown a breakthrough in indices, with a shift in style, where mid-cap indices performed strongly while large-cap indices lagged [3] - Domestic economic indicators such as CPI and PPI are showing mixed signals, with CPI returning to positive growth while PPI's decline is widening, indicating a complex economic environment [3][29] - The report suggests focusing on sectors like real estate, steel, and non-bank financials, which have been characterized as "cold" industries but are currently leading the market [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector, noting that policy support and increased asset allocation from insurance companies could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [8] - The report identifies specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank and Agricultural Bank of China, based on their potential for improved asset quality and profitability [8] Group 4 - The report discusses the robotics industry, particularly the application of cycloidal reducers in humanoid robots, highlighting their advantages in torque and shock resistance [10] - Companies like Double Ring Transmission are collaborating with Tesla on developing small RV reducers, indicating a growing interest in this technology [10] Group 5 - The scientific instruments industry is characterized by a significant presence of foreign brands, with domestic brands still underrepresented, indicating a strong potential for domestic substitution [11] - The report notes that the mass spectrometry market in China is valued at 16.712 billion yuan, with foreign companies holding over 90% of the global market share, highlighting the need for domestic innovation [11]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 14 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3510.18 | 0.01% | 0.50 | | | 深证成指 | 10696.10 | 0.61% | 64.97 | | | 沪深 300 | 4014.81 | 0.12% | 4.78 | | | 创业板 | 2207.10 | 0.80% | 17.52 | | | 科创 50 | 994.45 | 1.48% | 14.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1420.81 | 0.90% | 12.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 2.02% | 银行 | -2.41% | 稀土永磁 | 5.6 ...