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广发期货日评-20260107
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The A - share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad - based ETFs recently, and the downside space is limited. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. The post - holiday market has a strong upward momentum, and it is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios [3]. - The current abundant capital supports the bond market, but concerns about supply and the strengthening of equities restrain the performance of long - term bonds. Market consistency behavior may amplify fluctuations, and the stabilization or repair of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer [3]. - Geopolitical risks and tight supply continue to drive up the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain high - volatility operation in January, and silver is recommended to be lightly long - held with low positions in high - volatility markets [3]. - Steel production is being cut and inventories are being reduced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the iron ore market, more steel mills are resuming production, and attention should be paid to the impact of finished product export policies [3]. - Coal prices in Shanxi are running weakly, and coking coal and coke are viewed bearishly. The market sentiment for ferrosilicon has improved, and the price of manganese silicon is affected by ore support and supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Concerns about the stability of metal supply have intensified, driving up copper prices. Aluminum prices have reached new highs, but there are signs of over - rising in the short term. Zinc prices have moved up, and tin prices are oscillating strongly [3]. - The organic silicon industry is reducing production to support prices, and the polysilicon futures have fallen after rising. The lithium carbonate market has a strong sentiment, and supply disruptions are expected to intensify [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels, and short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply and demand of bottle chips are both decreasing in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space [3]. - Ethanol is in a seasonal inventory - building period, and the price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation of benzene is slightly improving, but high inventories still put pressure on prices [3]. - The LLDPE market has strong orders, and the price of PP has strengthened slightly. The port price of methanol is strong, and the futures of caustic soda have rebounded strongly [3]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the urea market has improved after the Indian tender results were announced. The soda ash and glass markets have rebounded due to macro factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate. The prices of edible oils are oscillating within a range, and the prices of sugar are rebounding slightly [3]. - The egg supply is stable, and the apple market is driven by the shortage of high - quality fruits. The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and the price of red dates has stabilized [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Nickel (NI2602) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be strong in the short term; Iron ore (I2605) is recommended for short - term long - position attempts; Live pigs (LH2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; Silver (AG2604) is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share index has rebounded, and the stock index has reached new highs. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios. Core assets and technology - leading stocks represented by IH and IC are dominant [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is supported by abundant funds, but long - term bonds are restricted. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage, and steepen the yield curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and tight supply drive up prices. Gold should be held long above $4300, silver should be lightly long - held with low positions, and platinum and palladium should be long - held at low positions [3]. Commodity Sector - **Steel and Iron**: Steel prices are range - bound, iron ore is recommended for short - term long - positions, coking coal and coke are bearish, ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and manganese silicon is for range - bound operations [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are rising, aluminum prices are at new highs but not recommended to be chased, zinc prices are rising, tin prices are strongly oscillating, and nickel and stainless steel are recommended for long - positions at low prices [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Organic silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen after rising, lithium carbonate is recommended to wait and see, PX and PTA are for high - level oscillations and low - level long - positions, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: LLDPE is recommended for short - term long - positions, PP should focus on PDH profit expansion, methanol is recommended for long - positions at low prices, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate, edible oils are range - bound, sugar is slightly rebounding, cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and red dates are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3].