Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The A - share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad - based ETFs recently, and the downside space is limited. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. The post - holiday market has a strong upward momentum, and it is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios [3]. - The current abundant capital supports the bond market, but concerns about supply and the strengthening of equities restrain the performance of long - term bonds. Market consistency behavior may amplify fluctuations, and the stabilization or repair of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer [3]. - Geopolitical risks and tight supply continue to drive up the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain high - volatility operation in January, and silver is recommended to be lightly long - held with low positions in high - volatility markets [3]. - Steel production is being cut and inventories are being reduced, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the iron ore market, more steel mills are resuming production, and attention should be paid to the impact of finished product export policies [3]. - Coal prices in Shanxi are running weakly, and coking coal and coke are viewed bearishly. The market sentiment for ferrosilicon has improved, and the price of manganese silicon is affected by ore support and supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Concerns about the stability of metal supply have intensified, driving up copper prices. Aluminum prices have reached new highs, but there are signs of over - rising in the short term. Zinc prices have moved up, and tin prices are oscillating strongly [3]. - The organic silicon industry is reducing production to support prices, and the polysilicon futures have fallen after rising. The lithium carbonate market has a strong sentiment, and supply disruptions are expected to intensify [3]. - The prices of PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels, and short - fiber follows the raw material fluctuations. The supply and demand of bottle chips are both decreasing in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space [3]. - Ethanol is in a seasonal inventory - building period, and the price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation of benzene is slightly improving, but high inventories still put pressure on prices [3]. - The LLDPE market has strong orders, and the price of PP has strengthened slightly. The port price of methanol is strong, and the futures of caustic soda have rebounded strongly [3]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the urea market has improved after the Indian tender results were announced. The soda ash and glass markets have rebounded due to macro factors, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate. The prices of edible oils are oscillating within a range, and the prices of sugar are rebounding slightly [3]. - The egg supply is stable, and the apple market is driven by the shortage of high - quality fruits. The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and the price of red dates has stabilized [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Nickel (NI2602) is expected to fluctuate strongly; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be strong in the short term; Iron ore (I2605) is recommended for short - term long - position attempts; Live pigs (LH2603) are expected to fluctuate strongly; Silver (AG2604) is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share index has rebounded, and the stock index has reached new highs. It is recommended to hold bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios. Core assets and technology - leading stocks represented by IH and IC are dominant [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is supported by abundant funds, but long - term bonds are restricted. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage, and steepen the yield curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and tight supply drive up prices. Gold should be held long above $4300, silver should be lightly long - held with low positions, and platinum and palladium should be long - held at low positions [3]. Commodity Sector - **Steel and Iron**: Steel prices are range - bound, iron ore is recommended for short - term long - positions, coking coal and coke are bearish, ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and manganese silicon is for range - bound operations [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are rising, aluminum prices are at new highs but not recommended to be chased, zinc prices are rising, tin prices are strongly oscillating, and nickel and stainless steel are recommended for long - positions at low prices [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Organic silicon and polysilicon futures have fallen after rising, lithium carbonate is recommended to wait and see, PX and PTA are for high - level oscillations and low - level long - positions, and short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: LLDPE is recommended for short - term long - positions, PP should focus on PDH profit expansion, methanol is recommended for long - positions at low prices, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybeans, rapeseed meal, and corn are expected to oscillate, edible oils are range - bound, sugar is slightly rebounding, cotton is expected to oscillate strongly, and red dates are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term negative factors for the index have been exhausted, and it has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETFs have also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly. Core assets are expected to rise. Before the festival, there may be capital withdrawals, and there will be short - term fluctuations [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but the overall market sentiment is fragile and sensitive to negative factors. In the short term, with unclear positive factors, the bond market may maintain a volatile trend [3]. - For precious metals, the market sentiment needs time to recover after the sharp fall in the gold market due to rapid capital outflows. The "irrational" upward trend of silver is expected to end, bringing volatility reduction [3]. - The steel market is in a state of production reduction and inventory reduction, and the price maintains a range - bound trend [3]. - The new energy market has different trends. For example, the industrial silicon futures have rebounded in a volatile manner, while the lithium carbonate market has seen significant adjustments due to the profit - taking of risk - averse funds before the festival [3]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Variety Views - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The copper price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. The main contract focuses on the support level of 95,500 - 96,000 [3]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened to a high value this year. Long positions can take short - term profits when the price is high. The main contract operates in the range of 21,800 - 22,800, and long positions can be arranged after the price correction [3]. - Zinc: The decline in TC supports the price, and the spot performance is average. The main contract refers to the range of 22,800 - 23,800, with a low - buying strategy in the range, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage should be continued to hold [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - PX: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between PX2605 and PX2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - PTA: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between TA2605 and TA2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread of the 05 contract [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Corn: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has fallen after rising. It is in a weakly volatile state [3]. - Cotton: The supply - demand outlook is optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. It is in a strongly volatile state [3]. - Apple: The demand is weak, and the price is falling. It is recommended to close long positions at an appropriate time [3]. 3.2 Futures Variety Operation Suggestions - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread portfolio and match it with a small amount of short - selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and the central bank's bond - buying situation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of the first - quarter economic start and the stock market trend. The unilateral strategy is to wait and see for the time being, continue to pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and still tend to steepen the yield curve in the curve strategy [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is recommended to be purchased at a low price after the Spring Festival. For silver, before the New Year's Day, it is recommended to close or lock the positions and wait for a suitable allocation window after the festival [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - control intensity has increased this year, with a moderately loose monetary policy. The economy is generally stable with progress. However, it still faces challenges such as prominent supply - demand imbalance. The policy aims to continue the moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen regulation, and support key areas to promote economic growth and price stability [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2603.CFE) had a weekly settlement price of 108.280 with a 0.19% increase; T2606.CFE had a price of 108.300 with a 0.19% increase - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2603.CFE) had a price of 106.030 with a 0.10% increase; TF2606.CFE had a price of 106.005 with a 0.08% increase - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2603.CFE) had a price of 102.546 with a 0.06% increase; TS2606.CFE had a price of 102.590 with a 0.07% increase - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2603.CFE) had a price of 112.850 with a 0.50% increase; TL2606.CFE had a price of 113.070 with a 0.52% increase [8] Spread Data - The inter - delivery spread of T2603 - T2606 was - 0.020 with a - 0.500 weekly change; TF2603 - TF2606 was 0.025 with a - 3.500 weekly change; TS2603 - TS2606 was - 0.044 with a 0.000 weekly change - The cross - variety spread of 2TS - T was 301.904 with a 0.064 weekly change; 2TF - T was 103.780 with a 0.010 weekly change [8] Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.29% with a - 7.00BP change; 2Y was 1.34% with a - 3.43BP change; 3Y was 1.36% with a - 3.04BP change; 5Y was 1.59% with a - 0.78BP change; 7Y was 1.70% with a - 2.25BP change; 10Y was 1.84% with a 0.80BP change; 30Y was 2.22% with a - 0.35BP change - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.52% with a - 6.03BP change; 3Y was 1.67% with a - 1.27BP change; 5Y was 1.79% with a - 0.57BP change; 7Y was 1.94% with a - 0.46BP change; 10Y was 1.98% with a 1.05BP change; 30Y was 2.39% with a - 0.35BP change [8] Funding Rates - The weighted average price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate DROO1 was 1.26% with a - 1.50BP weekly change; DR007 was 1.52% with an 8.24BP change; DR014 was 1.63% with a 2.42BP change - The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.58% with a 2.96BP change; SHIBOR3M was 1.60% with a - 0.22BP change [8] Monetary Policy and Economic Situation - The monetary policy is moderately loose, with enhanced transmission efficiency and low social financing costs. The external environment is complex, and the domestic economy has challenges like supply - demand imbalance - The policy will continue to be moderately loose, strengthen regulation, and support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, innovation, and small - and - medium - sized enterprises [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETF has also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the robot concept has led the market. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. A bull spread strategy can be attempted on the CSI 300 index [2] Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year bond varieties are relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. The T2603 contract should pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8. For the 30 - year bond, the active bond yield around 2.28% may be the stage top, and the bottom of the TL contract may gradually become clear. Short - term attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF injection and the end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to buy the T contract varieties on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, appropriate participation in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis widening strategy can be considered [2] Precious Metals - Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in the US economic and monetary policies and the adjustment of the new - year market asset allocation. For gold, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy for unilateral long positions; silver's high volatility continues to give upward impetus to the price, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Attention should be paid to the repair of the domestic premium, and positions can be reduced or locked in at high prices before the Spring Festival. Palladium may continue to correct under the weak fundamentals, while platinum is relatively strong, and it is advisable to buy the platinum - palladium ratio on dips [2] Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel production is cut and inventories are reduced, and the price maintains a range - bound trend. The May rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively. The decline of hot - metal output may be limited, and the steel mills' restocking expectation supports the price. Short - term range - bound operation is the main strategy, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal prices at the production areas rise and fall alternately, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. The rebound space of the futures price is limited. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1000 - 1200. In December, the third round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the port trading price fluctuates with the futures. It should be regarded as a range - bound market, and short positions can be established on rallies, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Production cuts alleviate the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is in a bottom - range - bound market, with the reference range of 5500 - 5700. High inventories suppress the price rebound, and the cost side provides support. Short - term operation is recommended, and short positions can be tried when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The copper futures price has risen sharply, and the domestic spot discount has continued to widen. Short - term observation is recommended, and the main contract should pay attention to the support around 95500; the protective put option combination can continue to be held. The warehouse receipts of alumina are continuously decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2800, and short - term traders can lightly establish long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound. The social inventory of aluminum has increased by 35,000 tons, and the negative feedback of the off - season fundamentals has deepened. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600, and long positions can be established on dips [2] Energy and Chemicals - After the sharp rise of PX, the current PX price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the PX 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy. PTA has risen sharply following PX, and the current price should be treated with caution. Long positions can be reduced at high prices, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; in the medium term, it can be treated with a low - buying strategy; the TA 5 - 9 low - level cash - and - carry arbitrage is the main strategy [2] Agricultural Products - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is expected to be bountiful, and the impact of domestic policies should be noted. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The demand supports the market, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened. The price is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The long - and short - term game continues to be deadlocked, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including judgments on their trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Styrene (NI2602, EB2602): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [3] - Palm Oil (P2605): Expected to be strong in the short - term [3] - Silver (AU2602): Suggest to buy on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603)**: Opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the rise. After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, short - term negative factors are exhausted. The index has rebounded continuously, and broad - based ETFs have flowed back. The downside space is limited. The main line is unclear, trading volume is insufficient for an upward breakthrough, and volatility is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market may be driven by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view it as a volatile market. If participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and take profits in time [3] - **Treasury Bonds (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: With stable LPR and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures fluctuated downward. The 10 - year variety is relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. Pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8 for T2603. In the short - term, the sustainability of post - New Year's capital loosening. For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short - term and view it as a wide - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the long - position substitution of the TL contract intraday, and the positive spread and basis widening opportunities of the short - term 2603 contracts [3] - **Precious Metals (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606)**: Without clear negative factors, the short - term market of precious metals will remain strong. Subsequently, pay attention to changes in the US economy and monetary policies of various countries. Hold long positions unilaterally. When silver rises sharply, pay attention to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipts, and inventory, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures. Due to the festival effect, funds have driven gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to new highs, with platinum and palladium rising more. Be cautious of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels, but high volatility still provides upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety cushion. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still have short - term correction risks, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC2602)**: The main contract fluctuated upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Non - Ferrous Metals and Steel Sector - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel production has been cut and inventory has been reduced, and prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Pay attention to the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan for May rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coils [3] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, while steel mills' restocking expectations support prices. It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the range for the 05 contract, and try short positions around 800 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices at production areas have fluctuated up and down, and Mongolian coal prices have followed futures fluctuations. The futures market has rebounded from oversold conditions. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke (J2605)**: The third round of price cuts for coke in December has been implemented, and port trading prices have followed futures fluctuations. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [3] - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and costs have remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 5400 - 5650 [3] - **Manganese Silicon (SM603)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the cost side provides support. Conduct short - term operations and try short positions when the price rebounds above the current cost in Ningxia [3] - **Copper (CU2602)**: LME inventory has decreased, and the domestic spot has a discount. Wait and see in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 92500 - 95000 [3] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures market fluctuated at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2450 - 2650. Short - term traders can lightly buy on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The spot discount has widened, and market trading has been sluggish. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy (AD2602)**: Social inventory has been slowly reduced, and the futures market has been strong. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20800 - 21600. Conduct an arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and social inventory has continued to decline. Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 for the main contract, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin (SN2601)**: The fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold previous long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Driven by both mine - end disturbances and valuation, the futures market has continued to rise with fluctuations. The main contract refers to 116000 - 124000 [3] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The futures market has remained strong, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The main contract refers to 12500 - 13000 [3] - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Some spot prices have risen slightly, and futures prices have fluctuated downward. The main contract refers to 8000 - 8800 [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Polysilicon (PS2605)**: Cooling measures have been introduced, and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated downward. It is fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The futures market has remained strong, and the exchange has announced an adjustment of some delivery warehouses. The main contract refers to 112,000 - 116,000 [3] - **PX (PX2603)**: With a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook, PX has been favored by funds and has shown a strong trend. After a sharp rise in PX, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between PX5 - 9 [3] - **PTA (TA2605)**: The outlook for raw material PX has improved, but the driving force for PTA is limited. However, strong support exists due to low processing fees. After PTA has followed PX's sharp rise, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber (PF2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA: mainly shrink the processing fee on the futures market when it rises [3] - **Bottle Chip (PR2603)**: The cost side is strong, and the supply of PR is expected to increase. The short - term processing fee of PR will be compressed. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Shrink the processing fee on rallies. Hold the PR2602 - P - 5500 seller position [3] - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Overseas supply has shrunk, but the supply - demand outlook is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 when it rises. Hold the EG2605 - C - 4100 seller position [3] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force for styrene is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE (I2605)**: In North China, it has maintained near the risk - free basis, and hedging transactions have improved [3] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot prices have remained stable, and the basis has weakened slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol (MA2605)**: The spot basis has remained stable, and trading has been light. The MTO spread of the 05 contract will narrow [3] - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that prices will run weakly. Adopt a bearish approach [3] - **PVC (V2605)**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and procurement prices have declined. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Production is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious. The futures market has weakened after a rebound. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds [3] - **Glass (FG2605)**: Spot prices have been under pressure and weakened, and the off - season logic continues. Wait and see [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: There is a stalemate in the game between bulls and bears, and rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR2602)**: The cost side is fluctuating, and with high BR supply and a premium on the futures market, BR will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 11200 - 11300 for BR2602 [3] Agricultural Sector - **Meal (M2605, RM605)**: US soybeans have no bright spots, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It will adjust in a narrow range [3] - **Live Pigs (LH2603)**: Demand supports the market. Pay attention to the performance of second - fattening entry. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn (C2603)**: There is still suppression above. Pay attention to the rhythm of supply increase. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Oils (P2605, Y2605)**: With the Christmas holiday approaching, oils may fluctuate within a range. The P main contract may optimistically冲击 8500 in the short - term [3] - **Sugar (SR2605)**: The supply outlook is loose. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Cotton (CF2605)**: The supply outlook is expected to shrink. It will fluctuate strongly [3] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Egg prices are mostly stable with a slight decline. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Apples (AP2605)**: Weak demand limits the rebound height. It is recommended to take profits on long positions [3] - **Jujubes (CJ2605)**: The expectation of oversupply dominates, and prices will run weakly. Sell out - of - the - money call options (CJ605 - C - 9700) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment in Q4, with limited downside risks and a structural recovery in the technology sector. The index has initially stabilized but with shrinking trading volume, so it is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [3]. - The short - term weak market sentiment in the bond market may continue. Potential drivers to break the oscillation include the implementation of new regulations on bond fund redemption fees, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Gold prices have broken through the previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is relatively strong due to tight inventories. For platinum and palladium futures, on the first trading day, it is advisable to cautiously go long on PT2606 around 405 yuan, with the upper resistance around 425 yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT has a structural recovery, and the index has stabilized with shrinking volume. It is recommended to wait and see and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors have led to a decline in bond futures. The short - term weak sentiment may continue. Wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise further, silver is relatively strong, and for platinum and palladium futures, there are specific trading suggestions [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term trend is weak [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The raw materials are weak, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Close short positions and pay attention to support levels [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates within the range of 750 - 820 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1050 - 1150, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Coke**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1550 - 1700, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to trade between 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract is expected to run between 2700 - 2850 [3]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 21300 - 21800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract is expected to run between 20500 - 21000 [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to trade between 22200 - 22800 [3]. - **Tin**: The previous long positions can be held, and the strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - **Nickel**: The main contract is expected to trade between 116000 - 120000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract is expected to oscillate narrowly between 12300 - 12700 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, with a range of 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton, and cautious trading is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday volatility has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [3]. - **PTA**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the monthly spread can be positively arbitraged at low levels [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand is loose in November, and the processing fee is expected to decline. It is recommended to shrink the processing fee [3]. - **Ethanol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound is under pressure [3]. - **Styrene**: It may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [3]. - **LLDPE**: Wait and see due to weak overall trading [3]. - **PP**: There are many unexpected maintenance events, and the downside space is limited. Close short positions [3]. - **Methanol**: The port market is strong, and the MTO spread of the 05 contract is expected to narrow [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to run weakly [3]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and it oscillates at the bottom. The strategy is to short on rebounds [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and hold short positions [3]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair of Hubei production lines has driven a rebound. Close previous short positions and pay attention to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates. Wait and see [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upside is under pressure. The medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and consider the spread of long RU2601 and short BR2601 [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: It oscillates narrowly, waiting for new trading themes [3]. - **Hog**: There is still supply pressure. Hold the inter - month reverse spread [3]. - **Corn**: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price has fallen after rising. It oscillates narrowly [3]. - **Oilseeds**: It has rebounded slightly, and pay attention to the risk of subsequent pullbacks. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The prospect of increased production exerts pressure, and it oscillates at the bottom [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton export data is positive, and it oscillates with an upward bias [3]. - **Egg**: The capacity reduction is slow, and the supply is still loose. Close previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Apple**: The demand for stored apples is average, and it may run weakly around 9500 in the short - term [3]. - **Jujube**: The prices in the production areas have weakened, and it oscillates at a low level [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]