1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

欢迎关注微信公众号 | | | | 【每日精选观点】 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 合约 | 观点 | | | | 場 | SN2601 | 農汤偏強 | | | | PVC | V2601 | 过剩预期仍在,价格持续寻底 | | | | 焦煤 | rb2505 | 農荡偏弱 | | | | 菜油 | O1605 | 農荡偏強 | | | | | | 【全品种日评】 | | | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | | | IH2512 IC2512 | | 美联储本次会后公布决定继续降息25bp,其发言 态度对通胀乐观,并将启动短债买入,超预期鸽 派,短期全球流动性预期改善,但市场未形成上涨 | | | | IF2512 | | | | | 股指 | | 降息靴子落地,A股冲高回落 | 合力。国内中央经济工作会议召开,对2026年宽 | | | | IM2512 | | 财政、宽货币定调,稳定信心。当前市场成交情绪 | | | | | | 不高,谨慎对待震荡区间追高风险,适当逢低轻仓 布局牛市价差。 | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index is resilient, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment in Q4, with limited downside risks and a structural recovery in the technology sector. The index has initially stabilized but with shrinking trading volume, so it is recommended to wait and see, and one can try to lightly sell put options at support levels [3]. - The short - term weak market sentiment in the bond market may continue. Potential drivers to break the oscillation include the implementation of new regulations on bond fund redemption fees, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - Gold prices have broken through the previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is relatively strong due to tight inventories. For platinum and palladium futures, on the first trading day, it is advisable to cautiously go long on PT2606 around 405 yuan, with the upper resistance around 425 yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT has a structural recovery, and the index has stabilized with shrinking volume. It is recommended to wait and see and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors have led to a decline in bond futures. The short - term weak sentiment may continue. Wait and see for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise further, silver is relatively strong, and for platinum and palladium futures, there are specific trading suggestions [3]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term trend is weak [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The raw materials are weak, and steel prices maintain an oscillating trend. Close short positions and pay attention to support levels [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates within the range of 750 - 820 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1050 - 1150, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Coke**: It is viewed as oscillating and bearish, with a range of 1550 - 1700, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The main contract is expected to trade between 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract is expected to run between 2700 - 2850 [3]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 21300 - 21800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract is expected to run between 20500 - 21000 [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract is expected to trade between 22200 - 22800 [3]. - **Tin**: The previous long positions can be held, and the strategy is to go long on dips [3]. - **Nickel**: The main contract is expected to trade between 116000 - 120000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract is expected to oscillate narrowly between 12300 - 12700 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: It is in a high - level oscillation, with a range of 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton, and cautious trading is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday volatility has increased significantly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [3]. - **PTA**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the monthly spread can be positively arbitraged at low levels [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand is loose in November, and the processing fee is expected to decline. It is recommended to shrink the processing fee [3]. - **Ethanol**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 1 - 5 spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound is under pressure [3]. - **Styrene**: It may oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [3]. - **LLDPE**: Wait and see due to weak overall trading [3]. - **PP**: There are many unexpected maintenance events, and the downside space is limited. Close short positions [3]. - **Methanol**: The port market is strong, and the MTO spread of the 05 contract is expected to narrow [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to run weakly [3]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and it oscillates at the bottom. The strategy is to short on rebounds [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and hold short positions [3]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair of Hubei production lines has driven a rebound. Close previous short positions and pay attention to the sustainability of production and sales [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates. Wait and see [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upside is under pressure. The medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and consider the spread of long RU2601 and short BR2601 [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: It oscillates narrowly, waiting for new trading themes [3]. - **Hog**: There is still supply pressure. Hold the inter - month reverse spread [3]. - **Corn**: The spot market shows regional differentiation, and the price has fallen after rising. It oscillates narrowly [3]. - **Oilseeds**: It has rebounded slightly, and pay attention to the risk of subsequent pullbacks. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 in the short - term [3]. - **Sugar**: The prospect of increased production exerts pressure, and it oscillates at the bottom [3]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton export data is positive, and it oscillates with an upward bias [3]. - **Egg**: The capacity reduction is slow, and the supply is still loose. Close previous short positions and wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Apple**: The demand for stored apples is average, and it may run weakly around 9500 in the short - term [3]. - **Jujube**: The prices in the production areas have weakened, and it oscillates at a low level [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - term (2 - year) and medium - term (5 - year, 10 - year) contracts had slight increases, while long - term (30 - year) contracts were significantly under pressure. - The market's expectation of long - term monetary policy easing increased due to insufficient domestic demand, but the probability of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut decreased, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the bond market. - The rise of A - share major indices in September increased risk appetite and suppressed the demand for treasury bonds. The traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect weakened, and the bond market oscillated independently. - The Fed's interest rate cut in September alleviated the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, providing support for short - and medium - term contracts, but long - term contracts were significantly affected by interest rate sensitivity and institutional portfolio adjustments. - In October, it is expected that the market will maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The ten - year treasury bond futures 2512 (T2512) main contract had 8阴线 and 14阳线 in 22 trading days in September. The highest price of 108.320 yuan was reached on September 4, and the lowest price of 107.345 yuan was on September 25. The overall trend in September was an oscillation around the 5 - month moving average, and it closed with a positive K - line with upper and lower shadows. [2] - **Variety Price**: Among the 16 treasury bond futures contracts, different contracts had different price changes. For example, the two - year treasury bond (TS2509) contract rose by 0.004 yuan, while the two - year treasury bond (TS2512) contract fell by 0.046 yuan. The thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts generally showed a leading decline. [4][5] 3.2 Spot Market - In September 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a series of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. For example, on September 1, it carried out 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and on September 26, it carried out 1658 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. [6][7] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: In September 2025, there were several important events. On September 3, a grand ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held in Beijing. On September 12, the Ministry of Finance announced the second re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds with a scale of 82 billion yuan and a term of 30 years. On September 19, the Ministry of Finance issued the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (sixth issue) with a 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond and a coupon rate of 2.15%. On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. [8][9] - **Technical Analysis**: From the trend of the ten - year treasury bond (T2512) contract in September, it rose rapidly at the beginning of the month, reaching the monthly high of 108.320 yuan on September 4, then fell and rebounded after breaking the early - September price, but did not break through the September 4 high and then fell again to a new low. On the last trading day of September, it closed with a long positive line and a long upper shadow, indicating active trading and some profit - taking. After the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to investment opportunities on the first trading day. [10] 3.4 Market Outlook - In September, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated and volatile pattern. Short - and medium - term contracts had slight increases, while long - term contracts were under significant pressure. In October, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with more significant fluctuations in long - term contracts. Attention should be paid to the synergistic effect of economic data and policies. [13]