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SkyWater Soars 23% in a Month: Should You Buy the Stock or Wait?
ZACKS· 2025-06-03 17:35
Core Insights - SkyWater Technology (SKYT) shares have increased by 22.6% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index, which returned 7.6% and 4.9% respectively [1][2] Strategic Developments - The stock's performance is largely due to SkyWater's acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25, a 200 millimetre foundry in Austin, TX, which is expected to close mid-year and enhance domestic semiconductor capacity [2][3] - The acquisition is supported by a four-year, over $1 billion supply deal, which will immediately increase revenues and cash flow, diversify revenues, and strengthen the company's role in U.S. semiconductor onshoring [3][4] Product Launch and Revenue Growth - SkyWater launched ThermaView Solutions in January 2025, aimed at high-performance thermal imaging applications, which has already driven a 70% sequential increase in Wafer Services revenues to $7.5 million in Q1 2025 [7][8] - Over half of Wafer Services' revenues in Q1 2025 came from new products, marking a significant shift from 2024 when 90% of revenues were from legacy products [8][10] Quantum Computing Advancements - SkyWater's partnership with D-Wave has led to significant advancements in quantum computing, with D-Wave achieving quantum supremacy, validating SkyWater's role in U.S.-based quantum innovation [11][12] - Quantum computing has become the second-largest end market for SkyWater, with over 90% of advanced compute revenues tied to quantum programs [13] Competitive Positioning - SkyWater differentiates itself from competitors like Tower Semiconductor, GlobalFoundries, and ON Semiconductor by focusing on specialized, high-value chip production and holding a Department of Defense accreditation [14][15] - The company's TaaS model supports early design-for-manufacturability and quality-focused production, allowing for rapid innovation [16] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SKYT's 2025 loss is currently at 1 cent per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 116.67%, with revenues estimated at $307.15 million, a decline of 10.26% [17] - SKYT has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 203.9% [18] Valuation Metrics - SKYT trades at a forward 12-month P/S ratio of 1.28X, significantly lower than the industry average of 7.90X, making it an attractive option for value investors [19] Investment Consideration - SkyWater's unique position as a U.S.-based, DoD-accredited foundry, along with strong momentum in its Wafer Services segment and critical role in quantum computing, presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity [21][22]
SkyWater(SKYT) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-26 17:52
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 reached $75 million, exceeding guidance, with tools revenue of $12 million and combined ATS and Wafer Services revenue of $64 million [11][38] - Full year revenues totaled a record $342 million, up 19% from fiscal 2023 [12] - Reported gross margin for Q4 was nearly 27%, contributing to a positive EPS of $0.04 for the quarter and $0.06 for the full year [12][45] - Full year gross margin was 21%, compared to 22% in 2023, with combined ATS and Wafer Services gross margin increasing from 22.5% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2024 [42][43] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ATS business experienced a strong 13% revenue growth compared to 2023, while Wafer Services revenue declined significantly due to weakness in automotive and industrial segments [13] - Advanced compute was the second largest end market, with over 90% of revenues related to quantum computing technologies [14] - Tools revenue reached a record $77 million in 2024, reflecting unprecedented customer-funded CapEx investments [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The aerospace and defense sector showed significant strength in 2024, driving the majority of ATS revenue growth [13] - The automotive market saw a decline in revenue, while the BioHealth sector experienced growth [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of Infineon's Fab 25 in Austin is a strategic move to expand domestic manufacturing capabilities and become a leading pure-play domestic foundry service provider for foundational semiconductors [8][9] - The acquisition is expected to contribute approximately $300 million in annual Wafer Services revenue and balance the revenue mix between ATS and Wafer Services [29][32] - The company aims to transition Fab 25 to a customer-driven foundry model, enhancing service offerings and expanding the total addressable market by over $3 billion [32][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a conservative outlook for 2025 due to ongoing budget negotiations and expected timing of program allocations, forecasting combined ATS and Wafer Services revenue growth of approximately 5% [25][101] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in ATS revenues in Q2 2025, with continued growth expected in the second half of the year [26][49] - Management highlighted the importance of the CHIPS Act funding as an accelerant for growth plans [16] Other Important Information - The company plans to hold a Capital Markets Day post-acquisition to provide more details on the financial benefits and long-term strategic vision for Fab 25 [37] - The acquisition structure is capital efficient, with an $80 million purchase price and a strong adjusted EBITDA expected from the transaction [30][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Fab 25's gross profit contribution - Management confirmed that the initial supply agreement with Infineon is to provide products at current output levels, with plans to diversify over time [62][63] Question: Customer revenue profile post-acquisition - Infineon is expected to become the largest customer, enhancing the strategic partnership [64][65] Question: Back-end processing for Fab 25 - Currently done with traditional OSATs, but opportunities exist for future capabilities in Florida [66][68] Question: Quantum computing revenue percentage - Quantum computing accounted for about 10% of revenues in Q4 2024 [70] Question: Mix between ATS and Wafer Services in the future - Management expects a more balanced mix, with wafer services likely to increase due to the Fab 25 acquisition [78][82] Question: Supply agreement details and capacity fungibility - The supply agreement includes take-or-pay contracts, and there is potential to backfill capacity if needed [88][90] Question: Gross margin sustainability - The strong gross margin in Q4 was driven by a combination of ATS business mix and cost deferrals, but not expected to repeat at the same levels [92][93] Question: Yearly outlook adjustments based on defense budgets - Management is taking a conservative approach due to uncertainties in budget allocations, but remains confident in the critical programs [101] Question: Efficiencies and excess capacity from Fab 25 - Transitioning from IDM to foundry is expected to drive efficiencies and allow for new customer engagements [105]