Yancoal Australia 2025 Financial Results 25 February 2026 For personal use only Important Notice and Disclaimer Acceptance - This presentation is issued by Yancoal Australia Limited ABN 82 111 859 119 ("Yancoal"). By accepting, accessing or reviewing this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to the terms set out in this Important Notice and Disclaimer. Summary of information - This presentation has been provided solely to convey information about Yancoal and its related entities, and their activities. Th ...

Flash | 05 Feb 2026 05:20:51 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2026 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #19 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 29th Jan to 4th Feb 2026. Latest Sector pecking order: Aluminum, Copper, Battery, Gold, Battery Materials ...

February 9, 2026 12:27 AM GMT Commodity Matters | Europe Thermal Coal: Upside Risk from Indonesia Output Cuts We flag upside risk to thermal coal prices from Indonesian output cuts. Recent RKAB quota indications suggest material cuts for smaller miners, and we forecast an 17% drop in Indonesian exports YoY. Weak China demand partially offsets price impact, but we still see a tighter market YoY by 18 Mt. Key Takeaways The Indonesian government is aiming for extensive output cuts in 2026: It aims to support c ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $10.4 million or $0.09 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $118 million, a 19% increase from the prior quarter [25] - Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $69 million for the quarter and $336 million for the full year, ending the year with $575 million in cash and total liquidity above $900 million [25][26] - The company met or exceeded original guidance for seven of eight volume and cost metrics for the full year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seaborne Thermal delivered 3.3 million tons, exceeding expectations, with realized export pricing averaging $81.80 per ton, up 7% from Q3 [26] - Seaborne metallurgical shipped 2.5 million tons, up 400,000 from Q3, with realized pricing at $113 per ton consistent with expectations [27] - U.S. Thermal contributed $63 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, with nearly $250 million for the full year against only $57 million of CapEx [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Benchmark pricing for seaborne metallurgical coal rose to its highest mark in 18 months, increasing 15% from $190 per ton at the beginning of Q4 [16] - Coal fuel generation in the U.S. was up an estimated 13% year-over-year in 2025, significantly outpacing production growth of 4% [20][21] - Asian countries continue to add coal generation capacity, with China adding 80 GW of new capacity in 2025 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Centurion Mine is positioned as a cornerstone asset to maximize long-term shareholder value, expected to ship an average of 4.7 million tons per year of premium hard coking coal [5][7] - The company aims to reweight its portfolio toward higher-margin metallurgical coal and is actively pursuing renewable projects and critical mineral opportunities [7][10] - The focus for 2026 includes achieving full operational performance at Centurion, maintaining strong EBITDA to CapEx margins, and prioritizing shareholder returns [35][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving market fundamentals and the strategic positioning of the company amid favorable coal market conditions [3][14] - The company anticipates continued strength in both domestic thermal and seaborne metallurgical coal markets, driven by supply-demand dynamics and government policies [15][19] - Management highlighted the importance of coal in U.S. energy policy and its role in meeting energy demands amid constraints on other energy sources [12][13] Other Important Information - The company has invested approximately $750 million in the development and expansion of the Centurion Mine, enhancing its leverage to premium hard coking coal markets [33] - The company is exploring opportunities in rare earth and critical minerals, with promising concentrations identified in its testing program [10][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What do you assume for the Australian dollar in the cost guide? - The company is looking at an Australian dollar exchange rate of $0.70 [39] Question: How much CapEx is potentially still left for Centurion development? - Approximately $100 million a year in development for the northern part for the next three years, plus $25 million a year in sustaining capital in the south [40] Question: How should we think about pricing in 2027 and beyond? - There is potential for favorable pricing in 2027 as there is still a lot of contracting to be done [44] Question: What are the drivers for the increase in seaborne thermal costs? - The increase is primarily due to lower production volumes, particularly at Wilpinjong [49] Question: How should we think about the cadence of shipments as the year progresses? - The first quarter is expected to be weaker due to mine sequencing, with improvements anticipated in Q2 and Q3 [54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Yancoal achieved a record production of 10.4 million tons of attributable saleable coal in Q4 2025, contributing to an annual total of 38.6 million tons, also a company record [4][5] - Total ROM coal production increased by 20% compared to Q3 2025, reaching 18.9 million tons [7][8] - Average realized prices improved by 6% to AUD 148 per ton from the prior quarter [5][13] - The company ended the quarter with over AUD 2 billion in cash and no debt, reflecting a AUD 307 million increase in cash balance over the quarter [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Saleable coal production was 13.6 million tons, which is 11% more than Q3 2025 [8] - The attributable sales volume remained stable at 10.8 million tons, similar to Q3 2025 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average price on the API 5 index was 12% higher than in Q3, while the GC Newcastle index remained flat [10][12] - Japan's coal imports increased by 16%, while South Korea prioritized Indonesian and Colombian supplies over Australian coal [11] - Global demand for metallurgical coal declined, with a 7% decrease in seaborne metallurgical coal exports compared to 2024 [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Yancoal aims to maintain its position as a leading low-cost coal exporter, with expectations to deliver unit costs around the middle of the guidance range [5][15] - The company is considering dividends and potential growth opportunities due to its strong cash position [5][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about carrying operational momentum into 2026, with guidance on production and costs to be provided in February [5][6] - The company noted that while there were mixed performances in international coal markets, gains in coal price indices since the end of 2025 have sparked optimism among industry participants [13][15] Other Important Information - The total recordable injury frequency rate improved to 6.14, below the industry average of 7.45, indicating a commitment to safety [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current stockpiles and inventory levels - Sales and production are back to normal and matched, indicating a strong quarter [20] Question: Comments on New South Wales coal royalties - No discussions regarding changes to coal royalties have occurred, and the company is unaware of any changes [21] Question: Production profile of Hunter Valley Operations - Hunter Valley Operations had a strong fourth quarter, with effective management of wet weather impacts [24] Question: Insights on coal market outlook - Price recovery was noted towards the end of Q4, with expectations for a slight market pickup post-Chinese New Year [27] Question: Saleable production ratio decline - The lower ratio of saleable coal production to ROM coal production was due to an increase in ROM coal that could not be fully processed [29][31] Question: Dividend and capital management considerations - The company follows a dividend framework based on NPAT or free cash flow, with decisions to be made at the February board meeting [32][33] Question: Hypothetical scenario regarding U.S. coal imports - Australia has not historically supplied coal to the U.S. mainland, and the U.S. is unlikely to become a coal import market for Australia [38]

Group 1 - The core driving logic of coal price trends is the supply-demand pattern, with the current rapid decline in coal prices expected to have limited space, estimating a bottom range of 680-700 RMB/ton [1][2] - The demand for coal is currently at the median level of the past five years, with a recent downward trend in port inventories, although future weather conditions should be monitored [2] - The coal sector's cyclical bottom is confirmed in Q2 2025, with a reversal point in the supply-demand pattern, and expectations for a new upward cycle starting in H2 2026 for coal and downstream thermal power demand [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, with domestic supply stable and imports continuing to decline [2] - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), indicating a potential for demand to remain strong despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The average daily iron water production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain robust during the off-season [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the metals industry, particularly in Europe, with a positive outlook for various metals in 2026, driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Outlook for Metals**: The overall outlook for metals remains strong, supported by rate cuts, potential USD weakness, and increasing investor demand for real assets. New demand sources, such as energy storage systems (ESS) batteries and data centers, are expected to contribute to copper demand growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points in 2026 [2][3]. - **Top Picks**: Uranium and lithium are highlighted as top picks due to rising contracting activity and tighter market conditions, respectively. Conversely, iron ore and zinc are viewed with more caution [1][3]. - **Supply Challenges**: Significant supply challenges are noted, including disruptions in copper mines and competition for electricity among aluminum smelters and data centers [2][3]. - **China's Demand**: China's metals demand is bolstered by its manufacturing and export model, which is expected to continue. The US energy secretary's discussions on strategic uranium stockpiling also support this outlook [2][3]. Price Forecasts - **Uranium**: Expected to benefit from rising contracting activity and disappointing supply growth, leading to price upside [3][10]. - **Lithium**: Anticipated to enter a tighter market in 2026 due to accelerated ESS demand [3][10]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to catch up with copper prices as supply constraints from China and other regions persist [3][10]. - **Copper**: Projected to rise further due to tight supply and US stockpiling, although China demand remains a concern [3][10]. - **Gold**: Expected to see smaller gains in 2026 as central bank and ETF buying slows, but rate cuts may support prices [3][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Forecasted to tip into surplus as supply growth outpaces steel demand, although high-cost mines in China may set a price floor [3][10]. - **Zinc**: LME tightness is expected to fade as mine supply growth continues [3][10]. Key Risks - **Demand Destruction Risks**: With significant price increases in the BCOM Precious Metals Index (up 66%) and Industrial Metals (up 13%), there are concerns about potential demand destruction and disconnection from cost curves [4]. - **Global Growth Slowdown**: A sustained global growth slowdown could negatively impact prices, alongside energy price weakness and elevated by-product credits that may drag down cost curves [4]. Additional Insights - **Investor Behavior**: New investments in precious metals are noted, including Tether's gold purchases and India's pension regulator's approval for gold and silver ETF allocations [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the importance of resource security and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and local opposition to mining projects [28]. Conclusion - The metals industry outlook for 2026 is characterized by a positive skew, driven by various macroeconomic factors and emerging demand sources. However, potential risks related to demand destruction and global economic conditions warrant close monitoring.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Thermal Coal in China - **Data Source**: Sxcoal, a consultant tracking high-frequency demand trends in China Core Insights - **Production Trends**: - Thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was **12,187 kt** for the week of December 4-10, 2025 - This represents a **0.5% decrease week-over-week (WoW)**, a **3.6% decrease year-over-year (YoY)**, and a **3.1% decrease YoY on the lunar calendar** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,960 kt** (-0.9% WoW, -1.1% YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,516 kt** (-1.1% WoW, -9.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,711 kt** (+0.1% WoW, -0.9% YoY) [2] - **Utilization Ratios**: - Overall utilization ratio for sample mines was **90.2%**, down **0.5 percentage points (ppt) WoW** and **3.4 ppt YoY** - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.0%** (-0.8 ppt WoW, -1.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **89.7%** (-1.0 ppt WoW, -9.4 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **93.0%** (+0.1 ppt WoW, flat YoY) [3] - **Inventory Levels**: - Total coal inventory in sample mines was **3,253 kt** on December 10, 2025, reflecting a **1.4% increase WoW** but a **2.8% decrease YoY** - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **866 kt** (+1.4% WoW, -1.0% YoY) - Shaanxi: **698 kt** (+2.0% WoW, -15.4% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,689 kt** (+1.1% WoW, +2.5% YoY) [4] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks in the Sector**: - Hongqiao - Chalco H/A - Zijin Mining H/A - CATL-A [1] Risks Identified - **Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco)**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb14.77**, based on **2.93x 2026E PB** - Risks include lower-than-expected aluminum prices, higher costs, and potential government policy changes [14][15] - **Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL)**: - Target price: **Rmb571/share**, based on **17.3x 2026E EV/EBITDA** - Risks include lower EV demand and increased competition in the battery market [18] - **China Hongqiao**: - Target price: **HK$36.0/share**, based on **11.4x 2026E PE** - Risks include cost overruns and economic slowdown [19][20] - **Zijin Mining**: - Target price for A-share: **Rmb35.5/share**, based on DCF valuation - Risks include lower gold and copper prices and capex overruns [22][25] Additional Notes - **Market Positioning**: The report indicates a pecking order of demand across various sectors, with aluminum and copper leading, followed by battery materials and coal [1] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: YTD thermal coal output was **606 million tonnes (mnt)**, reflecting a **2.4% increase YoY** [2]

Thungela Resources Trading Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Thungela Resources (OTCPK:TNGR.F) - **Date of Update**: December 09, 2025 - **Context**: Pre-closed statement for the year ending December 31, 2025 Key Points Production and Operational Performance - Thungela has operated for approximately 33 months without any fatalities, which is critical for maintaining production momentum [5] - Full-year production guidance was set at 12.8-13.6 million tons, with expectations to reach around 13.7 million tons of export saleable production [5][11] - Elders Colliery's ramp-up contributed significantly to higher production, alongside strong performance from other collieries like Mafube [5][6] - Ensham in Australia is expected to report export saleable production of approximately 3.8 million tons, within the guidance range of 3.7-4.1 million tons [6] Market Conditions and Pricing - Energy markets have been affected by geopolitical risks and economic sentiment, leading to volatility in thermal coal prices [8] - Thermal coal prices declined during 2025, with Richards Bay averaging just below $90 per ton, down from $105 a year ago, indicating a $15 per ton margin swing [9][10] - Newcastle benchmark coal prices averaged about $105 per ton, down from $135 in 2024, with South African coal facing wider discounts [9][10] Financial Performance - Export equity sales for South Africa are expected to be around 13.6 million tons for 2025, up from 12.6 million tons in 2024 [12] - Free on board (FOB) cost per ton for South Africa is expected to be below guidance due to strong production outcomes and a non-cash rehabilitation adjustment [11] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2025 is projected at ZAR 2.6 billion, with ZAR 1.4 billion for sustaining capital and ZAR 1.2 billion for expansion [14] Strategic Initiatives - Thungela is undergoing a portfolio optimization, including asset disposals to reduce environmental liabilities [19][20] - The company has initiated a disposal program for certain assets, which is expected to positively impact future liabilities [20] - Investments are prioritized through the cycle, with ZAR 2.1 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [21] Future Outlook - The company is studying potential projects to fill production gaps from Greenside and Khwezela, with a focus on the No. 4 Seam from Elders and Zibulo North Shaft [26][31] - Long-term thermal coal price expectations hover between $90-$100 per ton, based on analyses from Wood Mackenzie [38] - The board is considering the balance between maintaining a cash buffer and returning capital to shareholders, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [43][44] Additional Considerations - The strong Rand poses a significant headwind for the business, impacting cash flow and valuation [18] - The coalbed methane project is progressing, with significant capital already spent to secure legal tenure and prepare for future development [48] Conclusion Thungela Resources is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on maintaining production levels, optimizing its asset portfolio, and ensuring shareholder returns while preparing for future growth opportunities. The company remains committed to its operational safety record and is strategically positioned to adapt to market fluctuations.

Market Trends - Chinese miners anticipate that the recent surge in thermal coal spot prices will positively influence their annual contracts with power plants in the coming year [1]