Accessible version Coal - China (H/A) More supply disruption, turn neutral on coal, lift earnings and POs Price Objective Change Price stabilization amid cost support in 2H25-26E YTD, China thermal/coking coal prices are at RMB680/1280 per ton, down c.50% vs. 2022 prices on the back of domestic capacity additions and import hikes. We turn neutral on the coal sector and expect prices to stabilize in 2H25-26E, given 1) net supply growth to slow to 0-1% p.a. in 2025-26E vs. 6-7% p.a. in 2021-23 and coal import ...

Yancoal Australia 1H 2025 Financial Results 20 August 2025 For personal use only Important Notice and Disclaimer Acceptance - This presentation is issued by Yancoal Australia Limited ABN 82 111 859 119 ("Yancoal"). By accepting, accessing or reviewing this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to the terms set out in this Important Notice and Disclaimer. Summary of information - This presentation has been provided solely to convey information about Yancoal and its related entities, and their activities. T ...

Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of August 7 to August 13, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **12,153 kt**, reflecting a **0.1% increase week-over-week (WoW)**, a **3.6% increase year-over-year (YoY)**, and a **3.7% increase YoY on the lunar calendar** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,967 kt** (+0.6% WoW, +12.0% YoY, +11.9% YoY on lunar calendar) - Shaanxi: **3,700 kt** (+2.2% WoW, +2.7% YoY, +2.7% YoY on lunar calendar) - Inner Mongolia: **5,486 kt** (-1.4% WoW, +0.1% YoY, +0.4% YoY on lunar calendar) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached **400 million tonnes (mnt)**, representing a **3.7% increase YoY** [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **90.0%**, which is a **0.1 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW** and a **3.1 ppt increase YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.2%** (+0.5 ppt WoW, +9.2 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **94.4%** (+2.0 ppt WoW, +2.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **89.3%** (-1.3 ppt WoW, +0.1 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,179 kt** as of August 13, 2025, showing a **0.8% decrease WoW** but a **1.1% increase YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **880 kt** (-1.3% WoW, +4.9% YoY) - Shaanxi: **705 kt** (+0.9% WoW, -10.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,594 kt** (-1.3% WoW, +5.1% YoY) [4] Market Sentiment - The overall market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector remains cautious, despite the positive production and utilization trends observed [1] Comparative Industry Ranking - The current pecking order of industries based on demand is as follows: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends as they can indicate potential investment opportunities or risks within the thermal coal sector in China [1][2][3][4]

Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **12,135 kt**, reflecting a **0.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** but a **3.7% increase year-over-year (YoY)**. On a lunar calendar basis, output increased by **3.4% YoY** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,950 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +11.7% YoY, +11.3% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,620 kt** (+4.8% WoW, +0.9% YoY, +0.4% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,565 kt** (-2.8% WoW, +1.7% YoY, +1.5% lunar YoY) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached **388 million tonnes (mnt)**, representing a **3.7% increase YoY** [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **89.9%**, a **0.1 percentage point (ppt) decrease WoW**, but a **3.2 ppt increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **3.0 ppt YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **85.7%** (-0.3 ppt WoW, +9.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **92.4%** (+4.2 ppt WoW, +0.8 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **90.6%** (-2.7 ppt WoW, +1.5 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,206 kt** as of August 6, 2025, showing a **0.3% decrease WoW** and a **2.4% increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **2.0% YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **892 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +6.2% YoY) - Shaanxi: **699 kt** (+4.2% WoW, -10.6% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,615 kt** (-2.1% WoW, +7.0% YoY) [4] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector, despite some positive year-over-year production figures [1] - The pecking order of demand for various materials in the market is noted as: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the thermal coal production and inventory report, highlighting trends in production, utilization, and inventory levels across key regions in China.

Core Viewpoint - Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) reported a decline in net income and revenues for Q2 2025, primarily due to weaker coal and soda ash prices, but still managed to generate significant free cash flow [2][8][13] Financial Performance - NRP's net income for Q2 2025 was $34.2 million, a decrease of 25.7% from $46.1 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Total revenues fell 23.6% year over year to $50.1 million, influenced by lower metallurgical and thermal coal prices and reduced soda ash sales prices [2][8] - Diluted earnings per common unit increased to $2.52 from $2.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Operating cash flow decreased to $45.6 million from $56.6 million, while free cash flow dropped to $46.3 million from $57.3 million [2] Segment Performance - The Mineral Rights segment, the largest contributor, saw net income decline by $13 million to $39.7 million, with coal royalty revenues per ton averaging $5.17, down from $5.98 a year ago [3] - The Soda Ash segment recorded net income of $2.5 million, down $1.1 million due to lower sales prices amid global oversupply [4] - Corporate and Financing segment improved net income by $2.3 million, aided by lower interest expenses [5] Management Insights - Management emphasized the resilience of free cash flow generation, reporting $46 million for the quarter and $203 million over the last 12 months, attributed to a decade-long deleveraging strategy [6] - Expectations are set to pay off nearly all debt by mid-2026 and to begin increasing unitholder distributions by August 2026 [7][10] Market Conditions - Current market conditions for coal and soda ash remain challenging, with excess supply and low prices expected to persist [11] - Factors contributing to revenue and profit declines include stagnant steel demand, high thermal coal inventories, and reduced soda ash demand due to sluggish construction activity [8] Future Outlook - NRP is on track to eliminate nearly all debt by mid-2026, which would allow for significant increases in distributions starting August 2026 [10] - Management anticipates that metallurgical and thermal coal pricing will remain muted through year-end, with soda ash markets unlikely to recover until supply rationalization occurs [11] Other Developments - NRP declared a second-quarter 2025 cash distribution of 75 cents per common unit, consistent with the first quarter of 2025 [12] - There has been no significant progress in carbon-neutral initiatives during the period, although long-term opportunities are still recognized [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry, but it indicates a pecking order of sectors, placing thermal coal lower than aluminum, lithium, copper, steel, gold, battery, and cement [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector in China, with a focus on tracking high-frequency on-ground demand trends [1]. - Weekly production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a slight decrease in output week-over-week but a modest increase year-over-year [2]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines has decreased slightly week-over-week but shows a year-over-year increase [3]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines has decreased week-over-week but increased year-over-year, indicating a mixed trend in inventory management [4]. Production Summary - From June 26 to July 2, 2025, thermal coal output from 100 sample mines was 12,008 kt, down 0.9% week-over-week, up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 1.4% year-over-year on the lunar calendar [2]. - Year-to-date output for sample mines reached 327 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-over-year [2]. Utilization Ratio Summary - The overall utilization ratio for the sample mines was 88.9%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points week-over-week, but an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [3]. - Utilization ratios varied by region, with Shanxi at 86.1%, Shaanxi at 88.3%, and Inner Mongolia at 90.9% [3]. Inventory Summary - Total coal inventory in sample mines was 3,302 kt as of July 2, 2025, down 0.5% week-over-week but up 3.9% year-over-year [4]. - Inventory levels in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed trends, with Shanxi and Shaanxi experiencing decreases week-over-week, while Inner Mongolia saw a slight increase [4].

Group 1 - Peabody Energy is a coal producing company based in the United States, previously operating in states such as Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana [1] - The company's production was primarily focused on thermal coal, which was exported to various countries [1] - Starting this year, Peabody began mining acreage, indicating a potential shift in operational strategy [1] Group 2 - The company is of interest to individual investors seeking value in commodity production, particularly those with sustained free cash flows and low leverage [1] - There is a focus on companies that are in distress but have high recovery potential, especially in emerging markets with high margins [1] - A solid pro-shareholder attitude is emphasized, including sustained buyback programs and dividend distributions [1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Emerging Market (EM) equities to Overweight (OW) while maintaining a cautious stance on the energy sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Nippon Steel plans to invest an additional $14 billion in U.S. Steel, with $11 billion allocated for infrastructure through 2028, raising concerns about financial health due to increased debt levels [7][10]. - Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with Codelco to develop a lithium project in Chile, which is expected to expand its lithium strategy without impacting earnings forecasts until 2029 [6][10]. - Hindalco's upcoming report is anticipated to focus on EBITDA per tonne, with expectations of a 6% growth in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by alumina expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Nippon Steel - Plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new steel mill, contingent on regulatory approval [7]. - Concerns about financial health as debt-to-equity ratio could rise to 1.1x if the deal is fully debt-financed [7]. Rio Tinto - Joint venture with Codelco for lithium project in Salar de Maricunga, with initial funding of $350 million and potential construction costs of $500 million [6][10]. - Current lithium output forecast to grow from 75,000 tons per annum in 2024 to 460,000 tons per annum by 2029-2033 [6][10]. Hindalco - Focus on EBITDA per tonne in the upcoming report, with a forecasted 6% growth in Q4 [9][10]. - Concerns about alumina exposure, but analysis suggests limited impact on share prices [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry but indicates a revised near-term pecking order: gold > steel > cement > copper > aluminum > battery > thermal coal > lithium names [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, noting that market expectations for a demand recovery remain cautious [1]. - Weekly data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a thermal coal output of 12,648kt for the week of May 1-7, 2025, which is an increase of 0.7% week-over-week (WoW) and 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines was 93.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW and a 7.1 ppt increase YoY [1]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines reached 3,495kt on May 7, 2025, marking a 1.2% increase WoW and a 14.8% increase YoY [2]. Production Summary - Thermal coal output from sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was reported as 2,989kt, 3,868kt, and 5,791kt respectively, with respective increases of 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.0% WoW, and 6.8%, 9.5%, and 7.9% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) thermal coal output from sample mines was 228 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 3.0% increase YoY [1]. Utilization Summary - The utilization ratios for sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were 86.8%, 98.7%, and 94.3% respectively, with increases of 0.4 ppt, 0.6 ppt, and 0.9 ppt WoW, and 5.6 ppt, 8.6 ppt, and 6.9 ppt YoY [1]. Inventory Summary - Coal inventory in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia stood at 926kt, 837kt, and 1,732kt respectively, with changes of -0.3%, +1.0%, and +2.1% WoW, and increases of 7.1%, 13.6%, and 20.0% YoY [2].