智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。该行认为当前煤 价快速回落的空间已不大，本轮底部预计在680-700元/吨。另外，6月136号文实施后起光伏装机出现断 崖式下跌，预示2026年一季度新能源替代压力将下降。该行认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在25Q2， 供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，且该行预计26H2开始煤炭及下游主要需求火电将步入新一轮的上行大 周期，值得期待。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 煤价有底，需求是核心。煤炭价格走势的核心驱动逻辑是供需格局。该行认为当前煤价快速回落的空间 已不大，本轮底部预计在680-700元/吨。从当前旺季供需看，需求处于近五年中值区间，港口库存近期 已经有下降的趋势，但后续仍要关注天气，但下行空间不大(历史同期也是暖冬)；11月煤价回升至800 元/吨以上，进口量仅环比微增5.9%至4400万吨，国内供给11月恢复到4.3亿吨，但同比依然有降。2025 年1-5月抢装达到200GW光伏装机对于今冬是最后一波压力冲击，而6月136号文实施后起光伏装机断崖 式下跌，预示2026年一季度新能源替代压力将下降。该行认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在25Q ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the metals industry, particularly in Europe, with a positive outlook for various metals in 2026, driven by rate cuts and demand for real assets [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Outlook for Metals**: The overall outlook for metals remains strong, supported by rate cuts, potential USD weakness, and increasing investor demand for real assets. New demand sources, such as energy storage systems (ESS) batteries and data centers, are expected to contribute to copper demand growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points in 2026 [2][3]. - **Top Picks**: Uranium and lithium are highlighted as top picks due to rising contracting activity and tighter market conditions, respectively. Conversely, iron ore and zinc are viewed with more caution [1][3]. - **Supply Challenges**: Significant supply challenges are noted, including disruptions in copper mines and competition for electricity among aluminum smelters and data centers [2][3]. - **China's Demand**: China's metals demand is bolstered by its manufacturing and export model, which is expected to continue. The US energy secretary's discussions on strategic uranium stockpiling also support this outlook [2][3]. Price Forecasts - **Uranium**: Expected to benefit from rising contracting activity and disappointing supply growth, leading to price upside [3][10]. - **Lithium**: Anticipated to enter a tighter market in 2026 due to accelerated ESS demand [3][10]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to catch up with copper prices as supply constraints from China and other regions persist [3][10]. - **Copper**: Projected to rise further due to tight supply and US stockpiling, although China demand remains a concern [3][10]. - **Gold**: Expected to see smaller gains in 2026 as central bank and ETF buying slows, but rate cuts may support prices [3][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Forecasted to tip into surplus as supply growth outpaces steel demand, although high-cost mines in China may set a price floor [3][10]. - **Zinc**: LME tightness is expected to fade as mine supply growth continues [3][10]. Key Risks - **Demand Destruction Risks**: With significant price increases in the BCOM Precious Metals Index (up 66%) and Industrial Metals (up 13%), there are concerns about potential demand destruction and disconnection from cost curves [4]. - **Global Growth Slowdown**: A sustained global growth slowdown could negatively impact prices, alongside energy price weakness and elevated by-product credits that may drag down cost curves [4]. Additional Insights - **Investor Behavior**: New investments in precious metals are noted, including Tether's gold purchases and India's pension regulator's approval for gold and silver ETF allocations [2]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the importance of resource security and strategic stockpiling, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and local opposition to mining projects [28]. Conclusion - The metals industry outlook for 2026 is characterized by a positive skew, driven by various macroeconomic factors and emerging demand sources. However, potential risks related to demand destruction and global economic conditions warrant close monitoring.

CITI'S TAKE Flash | 12 Dec 2025 04:06:50 ET │ 16 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #176 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in ...

Thungela Resources Trading Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Thungela Resources (OTCPK:TNGR.F) - **Date of Update**: December 09, 2025 - **Context**: Pre-closed statement for the year ending December 31, 2025 Key Points Production and Operational Performance - Thungela has operated for approximately 33 months without any fatalities, which is critical for maintaining production momentum [5] - Full-year production guidance was set at 12.8-13.6 million tons, with expectations to reach around 13.7 million tons of export saleable production [5][11] - Elders Colliery's ramp-up contributed significantly to higher production, alongside strong performance from other collieries like Mafube [5][6] - Ensham in Australia is expected to report export saleable production of approximately 3.8 million tons, within the guidance range of 3.7-4.1 million tons [6] Market Conditions and Pricing - Energy markets have been affected by geopolitical risks and economic sentiment, leading to volatility in thermal coal prices [8] - Thermal coal prices declined during 2025, with Richards Bay averaging just below $90 per ton, down from $105 a year ago, indicating a $15 per ton margin swing [9][10] - Newcastle benchmark coal prices averaged about $105 per ton, down from $135 in 2024, with South African coal facing wider discounts [9][10] Financial Performance - Export equity sales for South Africa are expected to be around 13.6 million tons for 2025, up from 12.6 million tons in 2024 [12] - Free on board (FOB) cost per ton for South Africa is expected to be below guidance due to strong production outcomes and a non-cash rehabilitation adjustment [11] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2025 is projected at ZAR 2.6 billion, with ZAR 1.4 billion for sustaining capital and ZAR 1.2 billion for expansion [14] Strategic Initiatives - Thungela is undergoing a portfolio optimization, including asset disposals to reduce environmental liabilities [19][20] - The company has initiated a disposal program for certain assets, which is expected to positively impact future liabilities [20] - Investments are prioritized through the cycle, with ZAR 2.1 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [21] Future Outlook - The company is studying potential projects to fill production gaps from Greenside and Khwezela, with a focus on the No. 4 Seam from Elders and Zibulo North Shaft [26][31] - Long-term thermal coal price expectations hover between $90-$100 per ton, based on analyses from Wood Mackenzie [38] - The board is considering the balance between maintaining a cash buffer and returning capital to shareholders, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [43][44] Additional Considerations - The strong Rand poses a significant headwind for the business, impacting cash flow and valuation [18] - The coalbed methane project is progressing, with significant capital already spent to secure legal tenure and prepare for future development [48] Conclusion Thungela Resources is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on maintaining production levels, optimizing its asset portfolio, and ensuring shareholder returns while preparing for future growth opportunities. The company remains committed to its operational safety record and is strategically positioned to adapt to market fluctuations.

Chinese miners are hoping a recent rally in spot prices for thermal coal will translate into a boost for their annual contracts with power plants next year https://t.co/XQkoi8CBuV ...

Core Viewpoint - Natural Resource Partners L.P. (NRP) reported a decline in net income and revenues for Q3 2025, reflecting challenges in the coal and soda ash markets, while maintaining a focus on deleveraging and free cash flow generation [2][12][14]. Financial Performance - NRP's net income for Q3 2025 was $30.9 million, down 20% from $38.6 million a year earlier [2] - Total revenues fell 17% to $49.9 million from $60.3 million in the prior-year quarter [2] - Basic earnings per common unit decreased to $2.31 from $2.55 [2] - Operating cash flow was $41.1 million compared to $54.1 million in Q3 2024 [2] - Free cash flow decreased 24% year over year to $41.8 million from $54.8 million [2] Segment Performance - **Mineral Rights Segment**: Net income rose slightly to $40.9 million from $40.6 million, but operating and free cash flows decreased due to lower metallurgical coal sales prices and volumes [3] - **Coal Royalty Revenues**: Dropped approximately 9% to $34.2 million, with average royalty revenue per ton declining to $4.51 from $5.24, attributed to weak global steel demand and low natural gas prices [4] - **Soda Ash Segment**: Net income fell by $10.5 million due to lower international sales prices, with no distributions received from the joint venture Sisecam Wyoming LLC in Q3 [5][6] Management Commentary - Management highlighted the ongoing depressed market conditions for coal, soda ash, and carbon-neutral ventures, yet emphasized the generation of substantial free cash flow [8] - The global soda ash market is described as oversupplied, with prices at or below production costs for many operators [6] - The company is focused on maintaining a conservative capital management approach and has made significant progress in deleveraging [11] Guidance & Outlook - NRP anticipates continued weakness in coal and soda ash markets through 2026 but expects to remain free cash flow positive [14] - The long-term goal is to achieve a "fortress balance sheet" with no permanent debt and at least $30 million in cash reserves [15] Other Developments - NRP maintained its quarterly cash distribution of 75 cents per common unit, payable on November 25, 2025 [16] - The company is diversifying by leasing acreage for lithium production in the Smackover formation, indicating a shift beyond its traditional coal and soda ash businesses [17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated $31 million of net income, $41 million of operating cash flow, and $42 million of free cash flow [12] - Over the last 12 months, free cash flow totaled $190 million, indicating strong cash generation despite market challenges [4] - The company has retired nearly $130 million of debt over the past 12 months, with only $70 million remaining as of the end of the quarter [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The mineral rights segment generated $41 million of net income, with operating and free cash flow each decreasing by $9 million compared to the prior year due to weaker metallurgical coal markets [12] - The soda ash segment saw a net income decrease of $11 million, with operating and free cash flow each down by $6 million, primarily due to lower international sales prices and weakened demand [13] - The corporate and financing segment improved net income by $3 million, with operating cash flow and free cash flow each improving by $2 million due to reduced debt and lower interest costs [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets are facing challenges from slowing global growth and soft steel demand, while thermal coal markets are struggling with muted demand due to mild weather and competition from natural gas [4][5] - The soda ash market remains oversupplied, with international prices below cash production costs for most producers, indicating a generational bear market [6][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to manage its operations with a conservative approach, focusing on maintaining a robust free cash flow and improving its capital structure [6][10] - There is an emphasis on long-term sustainability in the soda ash market, with expectations that producers will eventually rationalize supply [7] - The company aims to increase unit holder distributions in the future, contingent on market conditions improving [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the significant headwinds in coal and soda ash markets, with no near-term catalysts for improvement [9][10] - The company believes that most coal operators are struggling to make profits, with many operating at razor-thin margins [5] - The outlook for thermal coal remains cautious, with a belief that North American thermal coal is in long-term secular decline until evidence suggests otherwise [5] Other Important Information - The company did not receive a distribution from Shishajam, Wyoming, in Q3 2025, and does not expect distributions to resume until market conditions improve [8][13] - The carbon-neutral industry continues to face challenges, with significant barriers to CO2 sequestration operations [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about lithium mining leasing in the Smackover region - The company is active in leasing acreage for lithium production in the Smackover formation, with varied activity levels over the years [16][17] Question: Clarification on operating and maintenance expenses - Operating and maintenance expenses include salaries, corporate costs, property taxes, and royalty expenses, with a focus on cost management [19][20][21] Question: Opportunities in natural gas production - The majority of the company's mineral rights are in the Haynesville basin, which is currently active, but oil and gas revenues are not material to the partnership [28] Question: Criteria for unit repurchases - The company aims for a "fortress balance sheet" before considering unit repurchases, prioritizing unit holder distributions and opportunistic acquisitions [34][35] Question: Thermal coal infrastructure capacity for increased demand - Increased power demand from data centers may require significant capital investment in thermal coal infrastructure, but specifics are uncertain [40]

Summary of the Conference Call on Thermal Coal Production and Inventory Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of October 23 to October 29, 2025 [1][2]. Key Points Production Data - **Total Output**: China's thermal coal output from the sample mines was 11,962 kt, reflecting a week-over-week (WoW) increase of 0.4%, but a year-over-year (YoY) decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Regional Breakdown**: - Shanxi: 2,865 kt (+1.9% WoW, -2.4% YoY) - Shaanxi: 3,527 kt (+0.8% WoW, -4.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 5,570 kt (-0.6% WoW, +0.7% YoY) [1]. - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Output**: The YTD thermal coal output was 533 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.0% increase YoY, with regional contributions as follows: - Shanxi: +4.1% YoY - Shaanxi: +1.0% YoY - Inner Mongolia: +3.9% YoY [1]. Utilization Ratio - **Overall Utilization**: The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was 88.6%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points (ppt) WoW but a decrease of 1.6 ppt YoY [1]. - **Regional Utilization**: - Shanxi: 83.2% (+1.6 ppt WoW, -2.1 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: 90.0% (+0.7 ppt WoW, -4.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 90.7% (-0.5 ppt WoW, +0.6 ppt YoY) [1]. Inventory Levels - **Total Inventory**: The total coal inventory in the sample mines was 3,196 kt as of October 29, 2025, which is an increase of 1.6% WoW but a slight decrease of 0.2% YoY [2]. - **Regional Inventory**: - Shanxi: 857 kt (+1.3% WoW, -2.3% YoY) - Shaanxi: 691 kt (+2.5% WoW, -13.8% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: 1,648 kt (+1.4% WoW, +8.1% YoY) [2]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a pecking order of demand for various materials, with copper, battery materials, and gold leading, followed by aluminum, cement, steel, lithium, and thermal coal [1]. - The data reflects ongoing trends in the thermal coal market, which may be influenced by broader economic conditions and energy demands in China [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call regarding the thermal coal industry in China, highlighting production, utilization, and inventory trends.

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals and Commodities - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Research Key Points and Arguments Macro Environment - A supportive macro backdrop is driving a positive outlook for metals, characterized by a falling USD, rate cuts, and low inventories [1][2] - The DXY is forecasted to reach 89 by 4Q 2026, indicating a continuation of the current USD Bear Regime, which is associated with above-average commodity returns [2] - China's demand indicators, excluding property, have shown positive surprises, supported by exports and consumption measures [2] Commodity Outlook - **Gold**: Remains the top pick with a projected 15% upside by 3Q26, driven by strong physical buying and support from lower rates and a weaker USD [3] - **Uranium**: Expected to rise due to strong spot market activity and improving contracting as uncertainties resolve [3] - **Copper**: Supported by macro and micro factors, with supply disruptions pushing the market into a larger deficit in 2026 [3] - **Cobalt**: Market tightening due to limited export quotas from the DRC [3] - **Aluminium**: Capped output in China but increasing volumes from Indonesia [3] - **Zinc**: Faces challenges from strong output in China, which may lead to increased exports [3] - **Iron Ore**: Considered overdone with stretched positioning and anticipated blast furnace cuts [3] Long-term Outlook - Gold is expected to see the largest uplift in long-term forecasts, with adjustments made to consider above-ground stocks as "supply" [4] - Silver and PGM estimates have also increased, while copper and aluminium see minor increases [4] Price Forecasts - Significant upward revisions in price forecasts for gold, with a new estimate of $4,400 per ounce for 2026, reflecting a 26% increase from consensus [11][16] - Copper is forecasted at $10,650 per ton for 2026, a 9% increase from consensus [16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise to $23.0 per pound, a 35% increase from consensus [16] Risks and Considerations - Demand risks remain, particularly with indications of price sensitivity in China as metals rally [2] - The impact of US tariffs and front-loading may still affect the market [2] - Geopolitical tensions and local opposition could hinder supply projects and lead to mine disruptions [25] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of real assets benefiting from macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and low inventories [2] - The potential for extreme weather to increase electricity demand and costs for smelters is noted [25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic environment, commodity-specific forecasts, and potential risks that could impact the metals and commodities market.

Company Overview - Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) was formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch Resources, quickly becoming a leading U.S. coal producer [2] - The company is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania, and operates primarily through its Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) and CONSOL Marine Terminal, supplying thermal and metallurgical coal to both domestic and international markets [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, CNR reported a 47% year-over-year revenue increase, outperforming sector peers despite ongoing industry volatility [3] - The company has a net margin of 0.63% and a return on equity of 3.01%, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of $11.40 for 2025, rising to $17.60 in 2026 [3] Production and Strategic Initiatives - A significant focus for CNR is the delayed restart of the Leer South mine, now expected to resume production in the fourth quarter, which is projected to enhance production efficiency and boost free cash flow [4] - The restart of the Leer South mine will also support CNR's capital return strategy, targeting the distribution of up to 75% of free cash flow to shareholders [4] Shareholder Returns - CNR continues to provide direct returns through dividends, having paid a $0.10 per share dividend earlier this month, representing a yield of 0.48% with a payout ratio of 18.35% [5] - Management has indicated plans for sustainable, gradually increasing shareholder distributions as the Leer South mine comes online and free cash flow expands [5]