Flash | 03 Jul 2025 03:56:10 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #96 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on a demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 26th Jun to 2nd Jul 2025. Latest sect ...

Key Takeaways Thermal coal prices remain unchanged: QHD 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb660/t as of June 27. CCI 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb615/t, and BSPI was also flat WoW at Rmb663/t. Mine-mouth prices for Shanxi Datong 5800 increased 0.4% WoW to Rmb492/t. Seaborne price unchanged: NEWC price was flat WoW at US$107/t as of June 27. June 30, 2025 07:49 AM GMT China Coal | Asia Pacific Weekly Coal Update: Mild Price Rebound Coking coal prices increased slightly: Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price was up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565 ...

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU ) is a coal producing company based in the United States. The company previously operated acreage in Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Peabody's production was primarily concentrated in thermal coal, which was exported to various countries. However, starting this year, they began mining acreageI am an individual investor with over 10 years of trading. I have been developing as a stock analyst for the last five years. I am inclined to search for Value c ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry, particularly Peabody Energy, presents hidden investment opportunities despite the prevailing shift towards renewable energy, with Peabody trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value and showcasing strong financials and growth potential [1][16]. Company Overview - Peabody Energy, established in 1883 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, is a leading global coal producer with 17 mines in the U.S. and Australia, focusing on both thermal and metallurgical coal [2]. - The North Antelope Rochelle Mine in Wyoming is Peabody's largest operation, producing over 60 million tons of thermal coal annually, while its Australian mines cater to the growing metallurgical coal demand in Asia [2]. Diversified Portfolio - Peabody's diversified portfolio includes thermal coal, which faces challenges in developed markets, and metallurgical coal, which remains essential for steel production, especially in rapidly growing economies like China and India [3]. - The company exports to over 26 countries, generating 55-63% of its revenue from international markets, which provides resilience against regional market fluctuations [3]. Financial Performance - Peabody's share price of $14.61 reflects a P/E ratio of 6.5, significantly below the industry average of 9.04, indicating a 40% undervaluation [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio stands at 0.42, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 0.4, with a market capitalization of $1.54 billion, only 40% of its annual revenue of $4.24 billion [4]. - The company has a low enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.7, a debt-to-assets ratio of 7.8%, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 12.8%, showcasing strong financial health and minimal leverage [5]. Profitability Metrics - Peabody's profitability metrics include a 10.5% operating margin, 10.5% net margin, 11.1% return on equity, and 10.3% return on assets, indicating competitive performance against higher-priced rivals [6]. Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The coal industry faces challenges, with thermal coal prices around $95 per ton and metallurgical coal at $183 per ton, influenced by demand fluctuations and production costs [9]. - Long-term challenges include environmental regulations and the push for renewables, but coal remains vital for energy security in developing economies, with India and Southeast Asia driving demand [10][11]. - Peabody's low debt and high cash flow position it well to navigate price volatility and capitalize on the growing demand for metallurgical coal [12]. Growth Catalysts - Analysts project a price target of $27.60 for Peabody, suggesting an 88.9% upside from its current price, driven by potential rebounds in coal prices and steady demand for metallurgical coal [14]. - The reactivation of the Centurion Mine in Australia enhances Peabody's position in the metallurgical coal segment, aligning with Asia's industrial growth [12]. Conclusion - Peabody Energy is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity within the coal sector, characterized by undervaluation, strong fundamentals, and strategic market positioning, making it a prime candidate for investors seeking value [16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Emerging Market (EM) equities to Overweight (OW) while maintaining a cautious stance on the energy sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Nippon Steel plans to invest an additional $14 billion in U.S. Steel, with $11 billion allocated for infrastructure through 2028, raising concerns about financial health due to increased debt levels [7][10]. - Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with Codelco to develop a lithium project in Chile, which is expected to expand its lithium strategy without impacting earnings forecasts until 2029 [6][10]. - Hindalco's upcoming report is anticipated to focus on EBITDA per tonne, with expectations of a 6% growth in Q4 compared to Q3, driven by alumina expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Nippon Steel - Plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel, including $4 billion for a new steel mill, contingent on regulatory approval [7]. - Concerns about financial health as debt-to-equity ratio could rise to 1.1x if the deal is fully debt-financed [7]. Rio Tinto - Joint venture with Codelco for lithium project in Salar de Maricunga, with initial funding of $350 million and potential construction costs of $500 million [6][10]. - Current lithium output forecast to grow from 75,000 tons per annum in 2024 to 460,000 tons per annum by 2029-2033 [6][10]. Hindalco - Focus on EBITDA per tonne in the upcoming report, with a forecasted 6% growth in Q4 [9][10]. - Concerns about alumina exposure, but analysis suggests limited impact on share prices [10].

Flash | 08 May 2025 04:19:11 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #64 – Thermal Coal Production and Inventory CITI'S TAKE In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectation on a demand recovery has been largely cautious. In this note, we enclose weekly data from Sxcoal, a consultant, on 100 sample China thermal coal mines' production and inventory data during the week of 1st to 7th May 2025. Our revised near ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [11] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [11] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [12] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [12] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of Q4 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased quarter over quarter, with export met tons priced against Atlantic indices realizing $119.39 per ton in Q1, down from $122.24 in Q4 [11][12] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1 from $75.39 in Q4 [12] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [22] - All four indices monitored by the company fell 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [22] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton from its quarter-end level [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [6][9] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were announced, with expected shipments for the year now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [8] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision to planned development CapEx [9][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the rest of the year due to weak steel demand and increased uncertainty from tariffs and trade policies [6][8] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages across the enterprise [7][19] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [20] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [10] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its share buyback program due to market conditions [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent cost-cutting measures and cost guidance - Management confirmed that recent cost-cutting measures have helped offset the loss of fixed cost absorption, maintaining guidance relatively firm despite production cuts [34][35] Question: CapEx reductions and growth projects - Most capital reductions are related to closures and reallocating assets, with no significant impact on future business [38][39] Question: Realization side and market conditions - In a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal; some recent business concluded at a premium to the index [48] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic vs export - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining overall guidance despite operational changes [46][47] Question: Opportunities in the marketplace - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat for strengthening the portfolio [50][51] Question: Domestic market considerations - The domestic market is currently among the higher pricing, but management will evaluate customer needs over the summer [56][57] Question: Potential for small competitors exiting the market - There is still potential for small competitors to exit the market, with liquidity concerns affecting less well-capitalized companies [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $5.7 million, down from $53 million in Q4 2024 [10] - Tons shipped in Q1 2025 were 3.8 million, a decrease from 4.1 million tons in Q4 2024 [10] - Average realization for metallurgical coal sales in Q1 was $122.08 per ton, down from $132.63 per ton in Q4 [11] - Cost of coal sales for the metallurgical segment increased to $110.34 per ton in Q1, up from $108.82 per ton in Q4 [11] - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2025, was $485.8 million, down from $519.4 million at the end of 2024 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal segment realizations decreased to an average of $118.61 per ton in Q1, down from $127.84 in Q4 [10] - Incidental thermal portion of the metallurgical segment saw an increase in realization to $79.39 per ton in Q1, compared to $75.39 in Q4 [11] - CapEx for Q1 was $38.5 million, down from $42.7 million in Q4 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical coal markets remained under pressure with pricing levels deteriorating due to weak steel demand [20] - All four indices monitored by the company fell by 8% or more during Q1, with the Australian Premium Low Vol Index dropping 15.5% [20] - As of May 8, 2025, the Australian premium low vol index increased to $190.5 per metric ton, indicating slight recovery [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on liquidity and safeguarding its financial position amid challenging market conditions [5] - Adjustments to sales volume guidance were made, with expected shipments now at 15.3 million tons, down from 16.7 million tons [7] - The Kingston Wildcat project is expected to continue on schedule despite the downward revision in CapEx [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year due to weak steel demand and economic uncertainty [5] - The company has taken difficult actions, including cutting production at higher-cost operations and reducing wages [6] - Management remains optimistic about the Kingston Wildcat project, which is expected to ramp up to a full run rate of approximately 1 million tons per year by 2026 [19] Other Important Information - The company has secured an amendment to its asset-based lending facility, increasing its size from $155 million to $225 million [9] - The company did not repurchase any shares in Q1 under its buyback program due to continued softness in the metallurgical coal markets [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on cost cadence and recent cost-cutting measures - Management noted that significant production cuts have been made while maintaining cost guidance, indicating a good accomplishment [31] Question: CapEx reductions and growth-related impacts - Most capital reductions are related to closures, with some growth CapEx being managed in-house to reduce costs [35] Question: Realization pressures and market conditions - Management acknowledged that in a weak market, discounting against indices is common, but not universal [45] Question: Shipment guidance and domestic versus export expectations - The reduction in shipment guidance primarily affects export tons, with confidence in maintaining domestic shipments [43] Question: Opportunities for acquisitions in the current market - Management is cautious about pursuing M&A opportunities, focusing instead on internal projects like Kingston Wildcat [48]

Core Natural Resources Investor Presentation May 8, 2025 1 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as "anticipates," "believes," "targets," "could," "continue," "estimate," "expects," "intends," "will," "should," "may," "plan," "predict," "project," "would" and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact and ref ...

Natural Resource Partners (NRP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 09:00 AM ET Company Participants Tiffany Sammis - Investor RelationsCraig Nunez - President & COOChristopher Zolas - CFO Conference Call Participants None - Analyst Operator and welcome to the Natural Resource Partners LP First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. I would now like to ha ...