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光伏技术“三国争霸”:TOPCon优势期剩2年,BC“朋友圈”扩充,钙钛矿叠层成下一代热点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 06:50
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant technological evolution, with a competitive landscape dominated by TOPCon technology, while BC and HJT technologies are emerging as strong contenders. The future of the industry will be shaped by these technological advancements and their implications for market dynamics and company strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Current Industry Landscape - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant position of TOPCon technology, which holds over 70% market share, while BC and HJT technologies are gaining traction [2]. - Major companies like Jinko, JA Solar, Trina, and Tongwei have launched new products with power ratings exceeding 650W, indicating a push for higher efficiency [2]. - Longi Green Energy's latest HIBC technology has achieved power ratings of over 700W, showcasing the rapid advancements in BC technology [4]. Group 2: Future Projections - Jinko's CTO believes that TOPCon's competitive advantage can be maintained for at least two more years, despite the rising competition from BC technology [3]. - The theoretical efficiency limit for TOPCon technology is estimated at 28.7%, with current efficiencies around 27%, suggesting room for improvement but also highlighting challenges in surpassing this limit [3]. - The industry anticipates that from 2024, TOPCon will fully replace PERC as the mainstream technology, with a significant focus on TOPCon for business operations [8]. Group 3: Emerging Technologies - Perovskite tandem technology is viewed as the next significant innovation in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Trina leading research efforts and aiming to establish a perovskite battery ecosystem [6][7]. - The market is expected to see a tenfold growth in BC technology over the next 3-5 years, indicating a strong potential for this technology to gain market share [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Innovations - Longi Green Energy has expanded its partnerships in the BC technology space, collaborating with 191 global partners to enhance its technological capabilities [5]. - Companies are focusing on reducing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as a critical strategy to enhance competitiveness in the market [10].