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Dec. 11 Will Be a Big Day for Broadcom. Should You Buy or Sell the Stock Now?
The Motley Fool· 2025-11-30 19:30
Core Viewpoint - Broadcom is positioned as a key player in the AI infrastructure market, with strong revenue visibility justifying its current stock valuation despite being elevated [1][2]. Financial Performance and Expectations - Broadcom will report its Q4 and fiscal year 2025 results on December 11, which could significantly influence 2026 expectations and share price [2]. - The stock is currently trading at 40.3 times forward earnings, indicating that much of the potential upside is already reflected in the price [2]. - The company anticipates Q4 revenue of nearly $17.4 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, with semiconductor revenue expected to rise 30% to $10.7 billion and AI semiconductor revenue projected to surge 66% to $6.2 billion [14]. AI and XPU Adoption - Broadcom's custom accelerators (XPUs) are in high demand, with management forecasting AI revenue growth exceeding the estimated 50% to 60% year-over-year growth rate for fiscal 2025 [3]. - Each of Broadcom's three major hyperscaler clients is expected to deploy 1 million XPUs in AI clusters by 2027, indicating a multiyear adoption cycle [5]. - A $10 billion order for XPU-based AI racks from a fourth client is expected to begin volume shipments in Q3 of fiscal 2026 [6]. Partnerships and Market Position - Broadcom's partnership with Alphabet has been a significant growth catalyst, aiding in the development of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for AI applications [7]. - The company's open-source Ethernet-based networking solutions are being adopted by hyperscalers for AI clusters, providing alternatives to proprietary solutions [9][10]. Infrastructure Software Business - The infrastructure software segment now accounts for nearly 43% of Broadcom's total revenue, with strong demand from VMware's top customers for AI workloads [11]. - The transition of VMware's customers to deploy AI workloads is expected to take around two years, potentially leading to durable revenue streams for Broadcom [11]. Non-AI Business and Future Outlook - The non-AI chip business has remained flat, with expectations for modest improvement in Q4, although recovery may be gradual [12]. - Broadcom's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 is estimated to be 67%, with a significant backlog of $110 billion at the end of Q3, supporting future share price appreciation [14][17].