I have no doubt that OpenAI will be able to build its own chips. I have no doubt that eventually Enthropic will be building their own chips. That every hyperscaler will build their own chip.By building your own chip, what you really get isn't your own chip. It's that you get control over your own destiny. That's the unique selling point of building your own chip. ...

以下文章来源于明亮公司 ，作者主编24小时在线 明亮公司 . 追踪新商业、好公司，提供一手情报与领先认知。 近期，英伟达（NVDA.US）投资"出手"频繁，先是宣布50亿美元投资英特尔，随后斥资至多1000亿 美元投资OpenAI，而受此前OpenAI与甲骨文的合作，市场均在股价层面给予了积极反馈。 但市场也出现了质疑声音——称英伟达、OpenAI与甲骨文存在"收入循环"，财务数字"操作"大于实 际营收。 9月25日，在播客BG2最新一期节目中，BG2主播、Altimeter Capital创始人Brad Gerstner， Altimeter Capital合伙人Clark Tang与英伟达CEO黄仁勋展开了一次对话。黄仁勋在对话中回应了 当下市场的关心的问题。 黄仁勋认为，投资OpenAI实际上是一个很好的机会，并认为OpenAI将是下一家数万亿美元级别的 Hyperscaler。 此外，黄仁勋也特别解释了为什么ASIC芯片并不完全和英伟达GPU是竞争关系——因为英伟达是AI 基础设施提供商，其提供的能力范围已经不仅仅是硬件和软件层面，也包括其不断迭代的速度、规模 优势带来的可靠性，以及整体能源效率等综合 ...

Core Insights - OpenAI is positioning itself at the forefront of the AI arms race with ambitious infrastructure plans and significant financial commitments from partners like Nvidia, Oracle, and SoftBank [2][3][5] Group 1: Financial Commitments and Partnerships - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion to support OpenAI's data center capacity expansion [3] - OpenAI has expanded its deal with Oracle and SoftBank to a $400 billion commitment for its "Stargate" project [3][17] - Current projections indicate OpenAI could generate $125 billion in revenue by 2029 [7] Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy Requirements - OpenAI's infrastructure buildout will require 17 gigawatts of capacity, equivalent to about 17 nuclear power plants [9] - The company is facing challenges related to energy supply and grid capacity, with existing infrastructure already strained [9][28] - Altman emphasizes the need for significant energy resources, advocating for more nuclear power plants to meet demand [10] Group 3: Market Demand and Growth - OpenAI's usage of ChatGPT has surged tenfold over the past 18 months, particularly in enterprise applications [22] - There is a growing recognition among CEOs that advanced AI is critical for future business success, with Accenture reporting significant client bookings [23] - Databricks CEO notes that future AI usage will exceed current levels, indicating a need for increased infrastructure capacity [25] Group 4: Execution Risks and Financial Strategy - OpenAI is burning billions in cash and is reliant on external capital for growth, raising concerns about its financing strategy [5][17] - The company plans to take on debt to fund its infrastructure buildout, as equity financing is considered expensive [18] - OpenAI is exploring alternative monetization strategies, including affiliate-style fees, to address its financial challenges [21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 revenue was $124 million, up 3% from Q1 and flat year-over-year [5][14] - Non-GAAP gross margin was 69.3%, a 30 basis point increase quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year [6][15] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 34.1% [6][15] - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.24, up from $0.22 in Q1 and $0.23 year-over-year [16] - Free cash flow in Q2 was $31.3 million, with a free cash flow margin of 25.2%, up from $23.3 million and 19.4% in Q1 [16][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Communications and computing segment grew 20% sequentially and 26% year-over-year, with the server segment growing 85% year-over-year [10][24] - Industrial and automotive segment declined sequentially but is expected to normalize by year-end [11][12] - Total revenue from new products continues to grow strongly, on track to exceed 2025 goals [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Communications and computing segment growth driven by data center infrastructure, including network interface cards and security appliances [10] - Industrial and automotive segment is recovering, with expectations for strong growth in 2026 [11][39] - Record design wins across all segments, particularly in hyperscalers and robotics [54] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company continues to execute long-term strategy, focusing on innovation and customer engagement [5][13] - Emphasis on small to mid-range FPGAs as a growth area, positioning as a companion to AI accelerators and other chips [96] - Anticipation of increased revenue from AI-related applications, targeting high teens in 2025 and mid-20s in 2026 [93] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about market conditions improving compared to Q1, with strong demand in communications and computing [6][12] - Confidence in recovering industrial and automotive segments, with expectations for normalized inventory levels by year-end [11][39] - Management highlighted strong backlog and design wins as indicators of future growth [103] Other Important Information - Company remains debt-free with strong cash flow, allowing for capital return strategies [18] - Ongoing share repurchase program, with $46 million repurchased in the quarter [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on companionship opportunities and data center infrastructure - Management believes Lattice is well-positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure spending growth, with strong growth in the server segment [24][25] Question: Update on new products versus core products - New products are expected to exceed high teens growth in 2025, with a significant contribution from the server segment [27][30] Question: Confidence in business model and future opportunities - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the FPGA business model and strong revenue growth potential [34][35] Question: Revenue growth target for 2026 - Management confirmed that the 15% to 20% revenue growth target for 2026 remains viable [37][38] Question: Impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors - Management indicated that current supply chain structures mitigate potential tariff impacts, with no significant direct effects observed [73][75] Question: Growth drivers in communications and computing - Management identified several growth drivers, including increased CapEx from hyperscalers and record design wins [80][82] Question: Recovery in industrial and automotive segments - Management expects industrial and automotive segments to normalize and grow in line with demand [83] Question: New product growth tied to communications and computing - Management anticipates growth across both communications and computing as well as industrial and automotive segments [90]

Group 1 - The market may be misinterpreting the news regarding funding, which has been secured at favorable terms that may not dilute current shareholders [1] - The Pragmatic Investor focuses on global macro, international equities, commodities, tech, and cryptocurrencies, aiming to guide investors of all levels [1] - The investing group emphasizes building robust and diversified portfolios to preserve and increase wealth over time [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unity reported consolidated revenues of $294 million for the first quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $238 million and AFFO attributed to common shareholders of $92 million, resulting in an AFFO per diluted common share of $0.35 [15][20] - Core recurring strategic revenue grew approximately 4% year-over-year, while capital intensity of the fiber business declined over 50% year-over-year [14][15] - The leverage ratio was reported at 6.09 times based on net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Uniti Leasing segment revenues were $222 million with an adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, achieving a 97% adjusted EBITDA margin [15] - Uniti Fiber reported revenues of $72 million and adjusted EBITDA of $29 million, resulting in a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin [17] - Non-recurring revenue was lower than expected due to a delay in a $4 million one-time sale of fiber to a government customer [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand from wireless carriers, with bookings in the quarter nearly doubling compared to the same quarter last year [12] - The percentage of bookings related to hyperscalers was around 15% to 20%, consistent over the past 18 months [43][45] - The ABS market has remained resilient, providing a key financing tool for the company [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Unity aims for disciplined top-line growth of mid-single digits and high-single digit adjusted EBITDA growth, reiterating full-year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO [5][10] - The company is focused on building new fiber, particularly within the Kinetic footprint, with plans to double the number of targeted homes passed with fiber by 2025 [6][10] - The merger with Windstream is expected to enhance Unity's fiber network and operational capabilities, with a goal to transition Kinetic off legacy systems to fiber [26][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the fiber infrastructure business, noting minimal impact from recent economic downturns [8][9] - The company is optimistic about regulatory changes that may benefit its business, including increased leniency towards retiring aging copper networks [9] - Management highlighted the ongoing investment cycle for large language models and the anticipated growth in AI-related demand [36][37] Other Important Information - The company received shareholder approval for the merger with Windstream, with approximately 97% of voting shareholders in favor [10] - New appointments to the Unity team include John Harobin as president of Kinetic and Harold Zeitz as a new board member [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about M&A environment and lease-up mix - Management indicated no slowdown in M&A activity and remains engaged in strategic conversations, while also focusing on integration and accelerating growth strategies [33][34] - The high mix of lease-ups was acknowledged, with continued strong investment from hyperscalers expected [35][36] Question: Nature of bookings and AI-related deals - Approximately 20% of bookings are related to hyperscalers, with a growing percentage over the past quarters [43][44] - AI-driven builds are treated similarly to other anchor lease-up models, with yields nearing 20% for hyperscaler deals [47][48]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported consolidated revenues of $294 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $238 million, and AFFO attributed to common shareholders of $92 million, resulting in an AFFO per diluted common share of $0.35 [15][20] - Core recurring strategic revenue grew approximately 4%, while capital intensity of the fiber business, excluding GCI impact, declined over 50% year over year [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Uniti Leasing reported segment revenues of $222 million and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 97% [15] - Uniti Fiber generated revenues of $72 million and adjusted EBITDA of $29 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 40% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong demand from wireless carriers, with bookings in the quarter almost double those from the same quarter last year [12] - The percentage of bookings related to hyperscalers is around 15% to 20%, consistent over the past 18 months [42][44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for disciplined top-line growth of mid-single digits and high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, reiterating full-year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO [4][20] - The merger with Windstream is expected to enhance the fiber network significantly, with plans to convert approximately 2 million homes to fiber by the end of 2025 [26][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the fiber infrastructure business, noting minimal impact from recent economic downturns [7] - The company remains optimistic about the merger with Windstream, expecting to close the transaction in the second half of the year [10][29] Other Important Information - The company has a leverage ratio of 6.09 times based on net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA [21] - The ABS market is viewed as an attractive source of financing, with potential for incremental capacity exceeding $1 billion [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about M&A environment and lease ups - Management indicated no slowdown in M&A activity, with ongoing strategic conversations and a focus on integration and accelerating growth [33][34] - Regarding lease ups, management noted that a significant portion of the lease up activity was driven by hyperscalers, with expectations for continued investment in large language models [35][36] Question: Nature of bookings and AI-related deals - Approximately 20% of bookings are related to hyperscalers, with a growing percentage over the past quarters [42][44] - AI-driven builds are treated similarly to other anchor lease up models, with yields nearing 20% on hyperscaler deals [46][47]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock price pullback presents a buying opportunity, trading at a discount relative to its peers and growth outlook, with a potential upside of 20% to 250% over the next decade [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Valuation and Growth Potential - Oracle's current P/E ratio is 37.26, which appears high compared to other software companies, but its growth trajectory justifies a higher multiple [2][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR in the low teens through 2034, with earnings projected to grow at a higher rate, leading to a forward P/E of 12x in 2030 and 7x by 2034 [5][6]. - Analysts forecast a 12-month stock price target of $179.20, indicating a 17.59% upside from the current price of $152.40 [10]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Oracle's cloud business, while only 2% of the global market, is growing rapidly and is expected to maintain high double-digit growth rates through 2026 [4]. - The company has established significant partnerships with major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, giving it a substantial data center footprint [4]. Group 3: Dividend and Financial Health - Oracle's dividend is competitive with the S&P 500 average and is expected to grow at an above-average pace due to a low payout ratio of less than 35% of its 2025 earnings forecast [7][8]. - The company's balance sheet shows decreasing debt levels, supported by improved cash flow from AI investments, allowing for sustained dividend growth [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical indicators suggest that Oracle's stock has hit a bottom and is poised for a rebound, with support near the $150 level and potential resistance at $160 [11]. - Recent analyst upgrades from Sell to Neutral have improved market sentiment, reducing the number of Sell ratings to zero [10].