Summary of the Conference Call on Japanese Auto Parts Industry Industry Overview - **Industry**: Auto Parts - **Region**: Japan and China - **Current Phase**: The environment for Japanese auto parts firms in China is entering a new phase characterized by intensified technical competition with local Chinese parts firms [1][3][5]. Key Points Structural Disruption Phases - **Phase 1 (2020-2025)**: Japanese OEMs experience a loss of market share in China. - **Phase 2 (2025-2030)**: Increased adoption of Chinese local auto parts technology in new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) by Japanese OEMs. - **Phase 3 (2030 onward)**: Global competition intensifies as Chinese local parts firms expand internationally [3][37]. Sales Impact Analysis - **Base Case**: Average sales per Toyota car for Japanese parts makers expected to decline by 19% from fiscal year ending March 2025 (F3/25) to fiscal year ending March 2031 (F3/31). - **Bear Case**: Anticipates a 28% decline due to increased use of Chinese local parts across various vehicle types. - **Bull Case**: Predicts only a 9% drop if Japanese parts regain usage [4][12]. Competitiveness of Chinese Local Parts Firms - Japanese suppliers face heightened competition in advanced technology areas such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and electric powertrains. - Concerns about global competition as local Chinese OEMs expand into ASEAN and European markets [5][28]. Japanese Firms' Countermeasures - Japanese firms are responding to risks by collaborating with local Chinese firms, increasing transactions with Chinese OEMs, and enhancing operations in India. - Specific companies highlighted include: - **Toyoda Gosei**: Focusing on competitive areas like airbags. - **Musashi Seimitsu**: Boosting sales to local Tier 1 firms. - **Koito**: Expanding business with local OEMs [6][36]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - Japanese auto parts suppliers are restructuring due to declining sales in China, with significant impairments reported. - Companies like Koito and Toyoda Gosei are adjusting operations to mitigate risks, including plant consolidations and workforce reductions [56][57]. Market Share Trends - Sales for Honda and Nissan suppliers have halved, with declines of 56% for TS Tech and Unipres from F3/21 to F3/25. - Toyota suppliers have also seen declines, but performance has been relatively resilient compared to Honda and Nissan [37][49]. Future Outlook - The report maintains an "In-Line" view on the auto parts industry, balancing risks from US tariffs and delayed ASEAN demand recovery against opportunities from HEV/ICE demand resurgence and corporate value enhancement measures [12][36]. - The potential for structural disruption in the Chinese business environment is a significant theme that may impact share prices and valuations in the medium term [12][13]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of US tariffs and the evolving competitive landscape in China. - Japanese firms are advised to explore joint ventures and alliances with local firms to enhance competitiveness and mitigate risks associated with local market dynamics [29][58].

Core Insights - Japanese carmakers, particularly Toyota, are attempting to regain market share in China by producing affordable, technology-driven electric vehicles (EVs) [1][2][3] Sales Performance - Toyota achieved significant sales growth in August, positioning itself for its first annual growth in China in four years [2] - Toyota's sales in China increased by 6% from January to August, contrasting with declines at Nissan (9%) and Honda (21%) [10] Product Strategy - Toyota's strategy includes launching locally made new-energy vehicles at competitive prices and maintaining a hybrid lineup to cater to diverse consumer preferences [2][4] - The bZ3X, a fully-electric compact crossover priced around $15,000, has gained popularity among consumers [3][5] - Toyota plans to expand its EV lineup in China with models like the bZ5, bZ7, and a revamped Lexus, which will be available as both EV and hybrid [5] Manufacturing Plans - Toyota intends to establish a wholly owned factory in China, becoming the second foreign passenger carmaker after Tesla to do so, with production set to begin in 2027 [6] Financial Performance - Despite increasing sales, Toyota's average profit per vehicle in China dropped to ¥162,000 ($1,090) in fiscal 2024 from ¥274,000 in fiscal 2021, with total profits falling from ¥525 billion to ¥290 billion during the same period [7] Market Dynamics - The demand for hybrid vehicles has slowed, with growth of only 17% in the first eight months of the year compared to 76% in the same period last year, as consumers shift back to fully electric cars [9] - There is a noticeable divide in new-energy vehicle sales among Japanese carmakers, with Toyota performing well while others struggle [10][11]

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) market is becoming more competitive, with a focus on affordability as a key driver for mainstream adoption [1] - BYD Co Ltd is leading the charge in the affordable EV segment with significant price cuts and a vertically integrated supply chain [1][4] Group 1: BYD's Market Position - BYD's cheapest model, the Seagull, has seen a price reduction from 69,800 yuan ($9,500) to 56,800 yuan ($7,800), making it more accessible to budget-conscious consumers [2] - The Seagull has been well-received, and its recent upgrade with the "God's Eye" smart driving system adds further appeal without additional cost [3] - In Q1 2025, BYD sold over one million new energy vehicles (NEVs), achieving a 60% year-over-year growth, indicating strong sales momentum [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Toyota has launched its most affordable EV, the bZ3X, priced around $15,000, which is 30% cheaper than its bZ3 sedan, directly competing with BYD [5] - Tesla plans to introduce a more affordable EV in the first half of 2025 to enhance its competitiveness amid slowing sales growth and increasing price sensitivity [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - BYD's shares have increased approximately 21% year-to-date, contrasting with a 16% decline in the industry [8] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for BYD is 0.85, slightly above the industry average, and it holds a Value Score of B [10] - Earnings estimates for BYD indicate a year-over-year increase of 33% for 2025 and 19% for 2026, although the 2026 estimates have seen a downward trend recently [12]