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同程旅行:2025 年第三季度业绩小幅超预期
2025-11-26 14:15
Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel Holdings - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) in Asia Pacific - **Date of Earnings Call**: November 25, 2025 Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: Revenue exceeded estimates by 1%, driven by a 15% growth in the core OTA business, outperforming peers in the domestic market [2][4] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Achieved 65.7%, 1 percentage point better than estimates due to a favorable mix shift towards core OTA [2][4] - **Net Profit**: Beat estimates by 3%, with a year-over-year margin improvement of 1 percentage point [2][4] M&A Activity - **Wanda Hotel Management Acquisition**: Closed in mid-October, expected to contribute approximately RMB 160-180 million in revenue and RMB 20 million in profit for 4Q25. This acquisition includes 239 hotels, primarily high-end in tier two or lower cities, and is seen as a future growth engine [3][4] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Growth Projection**: Anticipated growth of 10-15% overall, with core OTA growth at 15-20%. Accommodations expected to be the main contributor with 12-17% revenue growth [4] - **Transportation Revenue Growth**: Projected at 6-11%, driven by improved take rates and value-added service (VAS) adoption [4] - **Other Revenue Growth**: Expected to accelerate to 45-50% due to M&A contributions [4] - **Profit Guidance**: Adjusted profit range for 4Q25 is RMB 720-780 million, with no change to full-year guidance [4] Long-term Projections - **2026 Revenue Growth**: Management expects low to mid-teens organic core OTA revenue growth (13-18% including M&A) and a further 0.5 percentage point margin improvement [4] - **Marketing Investments**: Plans to increase marketing spending for emerging outbound business and its own app [4] Valuation Metrics - **Current P/E Ratios**: Trading at 13.6x for 2025 and 11.6x for 2026, considered attractive given the double-digit core OTA revenue growth and margin expansion [5] - **Price Target**: Set at HK$29.00, indicating a 34% upside from the current price of HK$21.62 [7] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Strong pent-up demand and moderating competition in lower-tier cities could enhance margins [12] - **Downside Risks**: Softer macroeconomic growth in China and intensifying competition in lower-tier cities could impact performance [12] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately RMB 45.203 billion [7] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$253 million [7] - **52-Week Price Range**: HK$24.90 - HK$17.02 [7] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.
TONGCHENG TRAVEL(780.HK):1Q EARNINGS BEAT; ON TRACK TO DELIVER SOLID FULLYEAR EARNINGS GROWTH
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-27 02:31
Core Financial Performance - Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported total revenue of RMB4.4 billion for 1Q25, representing a 13% year-over-year increase, which was 0.7% and 0.9% better than the company's forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates respectively, driven by a 1% revenue beat in the core OTA business [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was RMB788 million, up 41% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts by 6.6% and 7.3%, attributed to better-than-expected operating leverage in the core OTA business and operational refinements in the Tourism segment [1] - The operating profit margin (OPM) of the core OTA business expanded to 29.2% in 1Q25, compared to 22.6% in 1Q24, indicating improved efficiency [1][4] Core OTA Business Insights - In 1Q25, TC's core OTA business revenue reached RMB3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with an 18.4% year-over-year growth, slightly ahead of consensus estimates [2] - Revenue growth in the core OTA business was driven by a 15% increase in transportation ticketing services, a 23% increase in accommodation reservation services, and a 20% increase in other services [2] - The accumulated number of travelers served reached 2.0 billion by the end of March, reflecting a 7.3% year-over-year increase [2] Future Outlook - For 2Q25, total revenue is estimated to be RMB4.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with core OTA segment revenue expected to grow by 13%, while Tourism revenue is projected to decline by 7.5% [3] - The company anticipates a reacceleration in revenue growth for accommodation reservations in 3Q-4Q25, supported by easier comparisons and stronger seasonality [3] - The overall OPM is expected to reach 18.7% in 1Q25, up from 11.8% in 1Q24, with core OTA OPM forecasted to expand to 25.5% in 2Q25 [4]