Group 1 - Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $131, highlighting its position as a leading U.S. racing, online wagering, and gaming operator across three fast-growing segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming [1] - The Strong Buy rating is based on a structured, repeatable framework that identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation [1] - Moretus Research emphasizes rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a high-signal, judgment-driven process, focusing on underappreciated companies undergoing structural change or temporary dislocation [1] Group 2 - Valuation methods used by Moretus Research are based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, emphasizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] - The research aims to provide professional-grade insights, actionable valuation, and a strong filter for what truly matters in modern equity analysis, reflecting a deep respect for capital, discipline, and long-term compounding [1]

Core Insights - Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) set new all-time records for wagering during the Kentucky Derby Day program and Derby Week, indicating strong growth in the betting segment [3][4][5] Wagering Records - Total wagering on Kentucky Derby Day reached $349.0 million, surpassing last year's record of $320.5 million [3] - Wagering on the Kentucky Derby race alone hit a record of $234.4 million, up from $210.7 million last year [3] - All-sources handle for Derby Week increased to $473.9 million, exceeding last year's $446.6 million [3] Performance of TwinSpires - TwinSpires, the official betting partner, recorded a new high of $108.0 million in wagering for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to $92.1 million last year [4] - TwinSpires' handle for the Kentucky Derby race was $73.0 million, up from $60.9 million in the previous year [4] Company Financial Expectations - CDI anticipates that Adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week will rank among the top two results in the company's history, although it is expected to be $2 to $4 million lower than last year's record [5] - The company expressed optimism about future growth following the successful 151st running of the Kentucky Derby [6] Company Overview - CDI has been a leader in entertainment experiences for over 150 years, primarily through the Kentucky Derby and has expanded into various gaming and wagering sectors [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record first quarter net revenue of $643 million and adjusted EBITDA of $245 million, reflecting strong performance despite various challenges [11][12] - The live and historical racing segment increased revenue by nearly $28 million or 11% compared to the prior year quarter [40] - The company generated $234 million or $3.15 per share of free cash flow in the first quarter [47] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The live and historical racing segment delivered record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to the opening of new venues [39][40] - The Kentucky HRM properties increased adjusted EBITDA by $3.1 million or 6% compared to the prior year quarter [41] - The Virginia HRM properties saw a decrease in adjusted EBITDA by $2.2 million or 3% compared to the prior year quarter, impacted by weather and competition [41][43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Northern Virginia HRM venues collectively contributed nearly $10 million of adjusted EBITDA during the first quarter, up nearly $4 million from the prior year quarter [41] - The company experienced meaningful sequential growth in gross gaming revenues each month of the first quarter [26] - The Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana delivered nearly $12 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, performing well compared to regional gaming properties [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to growing the Kentucky Derby through prudent timing of capital investments, pausing a $900 million multiyear project to reassess economic conditions [16][17] - Smaller projects at Churchill Downs Racetrack, costing approximately $25 to $30 million, are expected to deliver strong shareholder returns [19][20] - The company plans to implement electronic table games in existing HRM locations by the end of 2025, focusing on regulatory and taxation challenges [34][78] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased economic uncertainty and inflation risks due to tariffs, impacting cost assessments for projects [16][17] - The leadership team expressed confidence in navigating economic cycles and maintaining growth through strategic investments [37][51] - Management remains optimistic about the upcoming Kentucky Derby, expecting results comparable to last year's record performance [35][131] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 maintenance capital projection by $10 million to $90 to $100 million [48] - A new common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million was approved, with nearly 800,000 shares repurchased in the first quarter [49][50] - The bank covenant net leverage was 4.0 times at the end of the first quarter, expected to remain stable throughout the year [50] Q&A Session Summary Question: About softness in the quarter and its acceleration - Management noted hesitancy in the lower-tiered play due to macroeconomic volatility, but consistent performance in higher-tiered segments [56][58] Question: Impact on international visitation for Derby 151 - No material change in international visitation was observed, with expectations for strong attendance [62][64] Question: Long-term growth for the Derby and capital plans - Management indicated that the NBC contract will enhance growth, with expectations for pricing power in new areas introduced [70][72] Question: Implementation of electronic table games and tax rates - The rollout will be cautious due to regulatory and taxation challenges, with a focus on gradual acceptance [78] Question: Growth opportunities at existing properties amid macro uncertainty - Management emphasized organic growth in Kentucky properties and ongoing projects in Virginia, with a focus on managing costs [91][92] Question: Trends in Virginia for existing assets - Management expressed optimism about Virginia's market potential, despite recent challenges [100][101] Question: Consumer segment trends and performance - Management highlighted the importance of customer data for managing performance, particularly in less mature properties [106][108] Question: Capital allocation and buybacks - Management indicated that capital allocation decisions will be based on where the best returns can be achieved, including potential buybacks [112][114] Question: Changes for the Derby next year - Management plans to evaluate customer feedback and adjust offerings based on data collected post-Derby [120][122] Question: Comparability of Derby performance this year versus last year - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but remains confident in strong demand for the event [130][131]