Group 1 - Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $131, highlighting its position as a leading U.S. racing, online wagering, and gaming operator across three fast-growing segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming [1] - The Strong Buy rating is based on a structured, repeatable framework that identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation [1] - Moretus Research emphasizes rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a high-signal, judgment-driven process, focusing on underappreciated companies undergoing structural change or temporary dislocation [1] Group 2 - Valuation methods used by Moretus Research are based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, emphasizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] - The research aims to provide professional-grade insights, actionable valuation, and a strong filter for what truly matters in modern equity analysis, reflecting a deep respect for capital, discipline, and long-term compounding [1]

Core Insights - Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) set new all-time records for wagering during the Kentucky Derby Day program and Derby Week, indicating strong growth in the betting segment [3][4][5] Wagering Records - Total wagering on Kentucky Derby Day reached $349.0 million, surpassing last year's record of $320.5 million [3] - Wagering on the Kentucky Derby race alone hit a record of $234.4 million, up from $210.7 million last year [3] - All-sources handle for Derby Week increased to $473.9 million, exceeding last year's $446.6 million [3] Performance of TwinSpires - TwinSpires, the official betting partner, recorded a new high of $108.0 million in wagering for the Kentucky Derby Day program, compared to $92.1 million last year [4] - TwinSpires' handle for the Kentucky Derby race was $73.0 million, up from $60.9 million in the previous year [4] Company Financial Expectations - CDI anticipates that Adjusted EBITDA for Derby Week will rank among the top two results in the company's history, although it is expected to be $2 to $4 million lower than last year's record [5] - The company expressed optimism about future growth following the successful 151st running of the Kentucky Derby [6] Company Overview - CDI has been a leader in entertainment experiences for over 150 years, primarily through the Kentucky Derby and has expanded into various gaming and wagering sectors [8]

Core Insights - Churchill Downs Incorporated (CDI) successfully hosted the 151st Longines Kentucky Oaks, with Good Cheer winning the race in challenging weather conditions [1][3] - The event attracted over 100,000 attendees, highlighting its significance in the horse racing calendar [1] - Total wagering for the Kentucky Oaks race day reached $73.9 million, with a 4% increase in all-sources wagering on the Kentucky Oaks race itself compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance - All-sources wagering on the Kentucky Oaks race was $22.7 million, reflecting a 4% increase from the prior year [2] - TwinSpires set a new record with $20.9 million in wagering for the Kentucky Oaks Day program, surpassing last year's record of $20.3 million [2] Horse Racing Highlights - Good Cheer, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, won the race by 2 1/4 lengths with a final time of 1:50.15, and has accumulated lifetime earnings of $1.7 million [3] - The filly is owned and bred by Godolphin, LLC, and is sired by Medaglia d'Oro [3] Community Engagement - CDI utilized the Kentucky Oaks event to support women's health initiatives, welcoming 150 breast and ovarian cancer survivors for the 17th annual Survivors Parade [4] - The Oaks charitable beneficiaries included Derby Divas and Horses and Hope, with the initiative raising over $1.5 million for women's health advocacy since its inception [5] Company Overview - Churchill Downs Incorporated has been a leader in entertainment experiences for over 150 years, with a focus on live and historical racing, online wagering, and regional casino gaming [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record first quarter net revenue of $643 million and adjusted EBITDA of $245 million, reflecting strong performance despite challenges such as weather events and economic uncertainty [11][12][39] - The live and historical racing segment increased revenue by nearly $28 million or 11% compared to the prior year quarter [40] - The company generated $234 million or $3.15 per share of free cash flow in the first quarter [47] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The live and historical racing segment delivered record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to the opening of new venues [39][40] - Kentucky HRM properties increased adjusted EBITDA by $3.1 million or 6% compared to the prior year quarter [41] - Virginia HRM properties saw a decrease in adjusted EBITDA by $2.2 million or 3% compared to the prior year quarter, impacted by weather and competition [41][43] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Northern Virginia HRM venues contributed nearly $10 million of adjusted EBITDA during the first quarter, up nearly $4 million from the prior year quarter [41] - The company experienced meaningful sequential growth in gross gaming revenues each month of the first quarter [25] - The Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana delivered nearly $12 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, performing well compared to regional gaming properties [46] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to strategic investments in the Kentucky Derby and HRM businesses, with a focus on long-term shareholder value [14][17] - A $900 million multiyear project at Churchill Downs Racetrack has been temporarily paused due to economic uncertainties [16][17] - The company plans to continue exploring further development in key markets, including Virginia and Kentucky [25][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the hesitancy in consumer spending due to macroeconomic volatility but expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage through these challenges [56][58] - The leadership team remains committed to delivering excellent total shareholder return with consistent execution over the long term [38][51] - Management expects the upcoming Kentucky Derby to deliver results comparable to last year's record performance [35][63] Other Important Information - The company announced a new common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million and repurchased nearly 800,000 shares in the first quarter [49] - The company reduced its 2025 maintenance capital projection by $10 million to $90 to $100 million [48] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: About the softness seen in the quarter - Management noted some hesitancy in the lower-tiered play due to macroeconomic volatility, but overall performance has been consistent [56][58] Question: Impact on international visitation for the Derby - Management indicated no material change in international visitation, with expectations for strong demand for the Derby [62][64] Question: Long-term growth for the Derby - Management discussed the potential for growth in ticket pricing and experiences, with expectations for continued strong demand [70][72] Question: Implementation of electronic table games - Management highlighted regulatory and taxation challenges but expressed optimism about the rollout of electronic table games [77][79] Question: Growth opportunities at existing properties - Management emphasized organic growth in Kentucky properties and ongoing projects in Virginia, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [91][92] Question: Trends in Virginia for existing assets - Management expressed confidence in the Virginia market, noting that it is still early in the maturity of these assets [99][101] Question: Capital allocation and buybacks - Management stated that capital allocation decisions are ongoing, with share buybacks being one of the options considered [112][114] Question: Changes for the Derby next year - Management indicated that adjustments would be based on customer feedback and data analysis post-Derby [120][122] Question: Comparability of Derby performance this year versus last year - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but expressed confidence that these would not materially affect Derby performance [130][131]

Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ:CHDN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 24, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Sam Ullrich - Vice President, Investor Relations Bill Carstanjen - Chief Executive Officer Bill Mudd - President and Chief Operating Officer Marcia Dall - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Chad Beynon - Macquarie Barry Jonas - Truist David Katz - Jefferies Jordan Bender - Citizens Daniel Guglielmo - Capital One Securities Jeff Stantial - Stifel Joe Stauff - Susquehanna Ben Chaik ...

Company Highlights - Churchill Downs Incorporated reported record net revenue of $642.6 million for Q1 2025, an increase of $51.7 million or 9% compared to Q1 2024 [6][3] - Net income attributable to CDI was $76.7 million, down $3.7 million or 5% from the prior year [6][20] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $245.1 million, up $2.6 million or 1% year-over-year [6][3] Segment Results Live and Historical Racing - Revenue for Live and Historical Racing was $276.4 million in Q1 2025, up from $248.9 million in Q1 2024 [5][3] - Adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $102.0 million, slightly up from $100.8 million in the previous year [5][3] Wagering Services and Solutions - Revenue increased to $115.8 million in Q1 2025 from $114.1 million in Q1 2024 [9][3] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $41.3 million, compared to $39.6 million in the prior year [9][3] Gaming - Gaming revenue increased to $267.2 million in Q1 2025, up from $243.2 million in Q1 2024 [12][3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Gaming segment was $123.5 million, slightly up from $122.8 million [12][3] All Other - Revenue from All Other segments was $2.0 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of $21.7 million in Q1 2024 [16][3] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to a loss of $21.7 million from a loss of $20.7 million in the previous year [16][3] Capital Management - The Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase program in March 2025 [18][19] - The company repurchased 798,250 shares at a total cost of $89.4 million in Q1 2025 [19][3] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had approximately $434.6 million of repurchase authority remaining under the 2025 Stock Repurchase Program [19][3] Financial Position - The company ended Q1 2025 with net bank leverage of 4.0x and returned $119.5 million of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [6][3] - The total assets of the company as of March 31, 2025, were $7,347.1 million, compared to $7,275.9 million at the end of 2024 [37][3]