Is CHDN a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Churchill Downs Incorporated on Ocular Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CHDN. Churchill Downs Incorporated's share was trading at $86.36 as of March 15th. CHDN’s trailing P/E was 16.33, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Most Expensive Horses in the World Churchill Downs (CHDN) represents more than a traditional horse racing company, positioning itself as a diversified gaming and experiential e ...

LOUISVILLE, Ky., March 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Churchill Downs Incorporated (“CDI” or “the Company”) announced today that the Company will release first quarter 2026 financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, and host a related conference call to discuss the quarter on Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 9 a.m. ET. Investors and other interested parties may listen to the call by accessing the online, real-time webcast at http://ir.churchilldownsincorporated.com/events.cfm or by re ...

March 3, 2026 Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements made in this presentation contain various "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of terms such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "might," "plan," "predict," "project," "seek," "should," "will," "scheduled," and similar words or similar expressions ( ...

Core Insights - The company reported record net revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, surpassing previous highs set in 2024, driven by strong performance at the Kentucky Derby and expansion in historical racing machines and wagering technology [5][6][7] Regional Gaming Performance - Management noted resilience in the Regional Gaming segment despite challenges such as roadwork and local curfews in Mississippi, with same-store casino margins declining by 0.8 points compared to 2024, primarily due to Mississippi's performance [1] Wagering Services and Solutions - Adjusted EBITDA in the Wagering Services and Solutions segment increased by 7% in 2025, largely attributed to growth in the Exacta business, which was acquired in 2024 for vertical integration of HRM technology [1] Virginia and Kentucky HRM Performance - Virginia's HRM segment achieved record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, with consistent growth in GGR per unit each quarter [2] - Kentucky's HRM also reached record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, supported by the opening of Owensboro and strong overall property performance, with statewide gaming revenue growing at a double-digit rate year over year [2] Fourth Quarter Highlights - The fourth quarter of 2025 produced record net revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, marking nine consecutive years of record revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, excluding 2020 [3] CEO's Remarks - The CEO characterized 2025 as "another very strong year," highlighting record Adjusted EBITDA in both the Live and Historical Racing segment and the Wagering Services and Solutions segment [4] Capital Investments and Future Projects - The company is expanding its HRM and technology footprint, planning to invest $180–200 million in the Rockingham Grand Casino, expected to open in mid-2027 [6][12] - The 2025 Kentucky Derby achieved record handle and TV ratings, with expectations of generating an additional $15–20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 [6][10] Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Churchill Downs generated a record $700 million in free cash flow in 2025, equating to $9.75 per share, and returned over $456 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [7][20] Regulatory Developments - The company received regulatory approval in Kentucky to introduce electronic table games based on historical horse racing, with initial rollout of roulette ETGs in early February [13] Consumer Trends - Management noted potential consumer tailwinds from federal tax law changes that could increase discretionary income for some customers, including the elimination of taxes on tips and overtime [21]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record net revenue and record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, surpassing previous records set in 2024 [5][6] - The company generated a record $700 million of free cash flow in 2025, equating to $9.75 per share, following a record year in 2024 [22][24] - The bank covenant net leverage at the end of December 2025 was 4.1 times, with expectations to decrease below 4 times during 2026 [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Live and Historical Racing segment and the Wagering Services and Solutions segment both delivered record Adjusted EBITDA [6] - The HRM properties in Kentucky generated record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, supported by the successful opening of Owensboro [18] - The Wagering Services and Solutions segment saw a 7% increase in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, primarily driven by growth in the Exacta business [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Kentucky, statewide GGR grew at a double-digit rate year-over-year, demonstrating strong underlying demand [19] - Virginia's HRM venues also delivered record Adjusted EBITDA, with The Rose showing sequential growth in GGR per unit in every quarter of 2025 [20] - The company expects the Derby to generate $15 million-$20 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue growing the Kentucky Derby, with renovations and expansions aimed at enhancing guest experience [10][11] - There are plans to invest $180 million-$200 million to develop Rockingham Casino in Salem, New Hampshire, with an expected mid-2027 opening [13] - The strategy includes expanding the HRM portfolio and enhancing the Exacta technology business, both domestically and internationally [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong momentum entering 2026, driven by the Kentucky Derby and HRM initiatives [16] - The company anticipates a favorable operating environment due to recent federal tax legislation, which may provide a tailwind for both Regional Gaming and HRM businesses [22] - Management highlighted the importance of disciplined capital allocation and operational excellence to drive long-term shareholder value [24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 4.2 million shares and returned over $456 million through share repurchases and dividends in 2025 [24] - The company is focused on responsible growth and careful rollout of new products, such as electronic table games [75] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on early pricing and demand trends for Derby 152 - Management noted strong ticket sales and positive trends heading into the Derby, with expectations for strong sponsorships and wagering [29] Question: Growth perspective on Kentucky HRMs and ETGs - Management indicated that ETGs are just being rolled out and that the growth in Kentucky is driven by product evolution and market building [33] Question: Wagering growth outlook for the Derby - Management emphasized a gravitation towards larger events like the Derby and noted that they operate under a different legal framework than other wagering platforms [38] Question: Legislative updates on iGaming in Virginia - Management expressed concerns about iGaming legislation in Virginia, stating it is not favorable for the market [43] Question: Thoughts on vertical integration and portfolio synergy - Management discussed the focus on growth margins and how different parts of the portfolio fit together to drive improvements [47] Question: Future opportunities for historical racing in other states - Management highlighted the positive impact of HRMs in states where implemented and the potential for expansion into new states [51] Question: Implementation of AI in business processes - Management outlined two categories of AI implementation: enhancing customer experience and improving business operations [55] Question: International sponsorship opportunities for the Derby - Management noted increasing interest from international markets, particularly the Middle East, and plans to leverage this for sponsorship growth [77]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record net revenue and record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, surpassing previous records set in 2024 [5][6] - The company generated a record $700 million of free cash flow in 2025, equating to $9.75 per share, following a record year in 2024 [22][24] - The bank covenant net leverage at the end of December 2025 was 4.1 times, with expectations to decrease below 4 times during 2026 [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Live and Historical Racing segment and the Wagering Services and Solutions segment both delivered record Adjusted EBITDA [6] - The HRM properties in Kentucky generated record Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, supported by the successful opening of Owensboro [18] - The Wagering Services and Solutions segment saw a 7% increase in Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, primarily driven by growth in the Exacta business [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Kentucky Derby generated record handle and the highest television ratings in nearly 40 years, with expectations for continued growth [7][16] - The HRM venues in Virginia also delivered record Adjusted EBITDA, with The Rose showing sequential growth in GGR per unit in every quarter of 2025 [19][20] - Despite weather disruptions, statewide GGR in Kentucky grew at a double-digit rate year-over-year, indicating strong underlying demand [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest $180 million-$200 million to develop Rockingham Casino in Salem, New Hampshire, with an expected opening in mid-2027 [9][13] - The strategic plan includes five key priorities, such as growing the Kentucky Derby, expanding the HRM portfolio, and enhancing the TwinSpires horse racing business [10][15] - The company aims to maintain disciplined capital allocation while focusing on sustainable long-term growth aligned with core competencies [15][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for the upcoming Kentucky Derby, with positive trends in ticket sales and sponsorships [28][59] - The company anticipates that the new federal tax laws may provide a meaningful tailwind to both Regional Gaming and HRM businesses [21][22] - Management remains focused on operational excellence and delivering sustainable long-term shareholder value [24] Other Important Information - The company repurchased over 4.2 million shares and returned over $456 million through share repurchases and dividends in 2025 [24] - The company introduced electronic table games in Kentucky, with plans to expand offerings in the future [9][72] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on early pricing and demand trends for Derby 152 - Management noted strong ticket sales and positive trends, with expectations for strong sponsorships and wagering [28] Question: Growth potential of Kentucky HRMs and impact of ETGs - Management indicated that ETGs are just being rolled out and that the continued evolution of the product will drive growth in Kentucky [32] Question: Wagering growth outlook for the Derby - Management highlighted a trend towards larger events and emphasized the importance of quality content for wagering growth [36] Question: Legislative updates on iGaming in Virginia - Management expressed concerns about iGaming legislation in Virginia, emphasizing that it is not currently law and that they believe it would not benefit the state [41] Question: Integration of AI into business processes - Management discussed the implementation of AI tools to enhance customer experience and improve operational efficiency [51][55] Question: Opportunities for media rights and sponsorships - Management noted increasing interest from international markets, particularly the Middle East, and emphasized the potential for growth in sponsorships [75]

Core Insights - Churchill Downs (CHDN) reported revenue of $665.9 million for the quarter ended December 2025, reflecting a 6.7% increase year-over-year and a surprise of +0.78% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $660.73 million [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $0.97, up from $0.92 in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of +14.56% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.85 [1] Revenue Performance - Gaming revenue was reported at $250.3 million, slightly above the estimated $249.06 million, but this represents a -2.8% change compared to the year-ago quarter [4] - Net revenue from Wagering Services & Solutions was $104.9 million, exceeding the average estimate of $103.17 million [4] - Revenue from Live and Historical Racing reached $319.4 million, surpassing the estimated $308.09 million, marking a +15.9% change year-over-year [4] Adjusted EBITDA Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA for All Other segments was reported at $-26 million, below the average estimate of $-23.45 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Wagering Services & Solutions was $42 million, exceeding the average estimate of $37.05 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Gaming was $108.9 million, slightly below the estimated $113.04 million, while for Live and Historical Racing it was $122.1 million, marginally above the estimate of $121.65 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Churchill Downs have returned -4%, compared to a -0.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

分组1 - Churchill Downs reported quarterly earnings of $0.97 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.85 per share, and showing an increase from $0.92 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +14.56% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $665.9 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.78% and increasing from $624.2 million year-over-year [2] - Churchill Downs has outperformed consensus EPS estimates three times in the last four quarters and has also topped consensus revenue estimates three times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 15.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.7% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is crucial for investors, as it includes current consensus earnings expectations for upcoming quarters and any recent changes to those expectations [4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $1.11 on revenues of $659.77 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $7.12 on revenues of $3.02 billion [7] 分组3 - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Gaming industry is currently in the bottom 28% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting that the performance of the stock may be influenced by the overall industry outlook [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors or through tools like the Zacks Rank [5][6]

Business Segments - The Company operates through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming[13]. - The Live and Historical Racing segment includes revenue from pari-mutuel wagering, simulcast fees, and event-related services at Churchill Downs Racetrack and other properties[14][15]. - The Gaming segment generates revenue from various gaming operations, including slot machines and table games, supporting the casino license[46]. - The company operates a total of 14,335 gaming terminals across its properties, with 646,000 square feet of casino space[47]. Investments and Developments - The Company is investing up to $30 million to renovate the Finish Line Suites and The Mansion for the 152nd Kentucky Derby in May 2026[22]. - The Company plans to invest $280-$300 million to build a new facility at Churchill Downs Racetrack, expected to be completed by the 2028 Kentucky Derby[22]. - Derby City Gaming was expanded in Q2 2023, adding a 123-room hotel and a VIP gaming area[25]. - The company opened the Terre Haute Casino Resort in Indiana in April 2024, which includes a hotel and a retail sportsbook[49]. - The company plans to sell 15-20 acres of land at Calder Casino for future retail development[48]. Racing Operations - Churchill Downs Racetrack conducts approximately 80 live race days each year and features one of the largest 4K video boards in the world[17]. - The Fair Grounds Race Course in Louisiana conducts approximately 75 live racing days each year and operates 13 off-track betting facilities[51]. Market Access and Technology - Exacta, acquired in August 2023, provides central determinant system technology for historical racing machines across multiple states[44]. - The company has executed strategic market access agreements for sports betting with Bet365 in Pennsylvania and Golden Nugget in Indiana[45]. Employment and Workforce - As of December 31, 2025, the company employed approximately 9,000 team members, including about 6,600 full-time employees[68]. Equity Investments - The company has a 61.3% equity ownership in Rivers Casino Des Plaines, which has 1,510 gaming terminals and 120 table games[57]. - The company has a 50% equity investment in Miami Valley Gaming and Racing in Ohio, which features a harness racetrack and retail sportsbook[58]. Regulatory Environment - The gaming industry is highly regulated, with gaming laws designed to protect consumers and ensure the integrity of the industry[86]. - Changes in gaming laws or regulations could have a material adverse impact on the company's gaming operations[87]. - The company is required to maintain responsible accounting practices and procedures, including reliable record-keeping and filing periodic reports with gaming regulators[89]. - The company pays substantial license fees and taxes in various jurisdictions, which are based on factors such as a percentage of gaming revenue received[102]. - The company must report and obtain approval for material loans, leases, and sales of securities from gaming authorities[101]. - The company is subject to environmental laws and regulations that may require significant capital expenditures for compliance[104]. Financial Risks - The company is exposed to market risks from adverse changes in general economic trends, which can affect consumer confidence and discretionary spending[298]. - As of December 31, 2025, the company had $2.1 billion outstanding under its Credit Agreement, which bears interest at SOFR-based variable rates[299]. - A one-percentage point increase in the SOFR rate would reduce net income and cash flows from operating activities by $14.7 million[299]. Gaming Operations - The company operates 540,000 square feet of historical racing entertainment venues with a total of 10,190 historical racing machines[23]. - Sports betting is operational in 39 states and the District of Columbia as of December 31, 2025, with the company active in eleven states for retail sports betting[82]. - iGaming is authorized in seven states, with potential expansion as Maine authorized it in January 2026[84]. - The company has faced legal challenges regarding historical horse racing operations in Louisiana, impacting revenue comparability[79].

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED REPORTS 2025 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESULTS LOUISVILLE, Ky. (February 25, 2026) - Churchill Downs Incorporated (Nasdaq: CHDN) (the "Company", "CDI", "we") today reported business results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. Company Highlights | CONSOLIDATED RESULTS | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fourth Quarter | | | | | | | Years Ended December 31, | | | (in millions, except per share data ...