联邦制药 20250723 摘要 联邦制药授权诺和诺德的 UBT251 临床前数据优异，12 周减重效果媲 美瑞塔鲁肽 24 周数据，预计 2032 年国内销售峰值达 43 亿元，并针对 CKD 和 MAFLD 进入二期临床，有望显著提升公司业绩。 神经肽 Y2 受体配体 UBT37,034 与替尔泊泰联用在 DIO 小鼠模型中显 示出 13.6%的减重效果，相当于替尔泊泰 24 周的数据，若临床数据良 好，有望进行商业化授权，进一步增强公司在 GLP-1 市场的竞争力。 联邦制药的 JAK1 抑制剂 TUR01,101（片剂和软膏形式）在特应性皮炎 治疗中显示出优异疗效和安全性，有望成为未来市场的重要产品，为公 司带来新的增长点。 联邦制药 2019 年至 2024 年收入复合增长率为 10.31%，主要得益于 6APA 价格坚挺、重组人胰岛素进入医保集采以及动保制剂快速增长， 其中人用胰岛素中标巴西卫生部标单，有望贡献亿美金级别收入。 6APA 价格自 2024 年下半年开始下滑，预计 2025 年下半年企稳，但 需求端压力仍然存在；青霉素及其中间体价格自 2024 年开始下滑，预 计 2025 年全年下 ...

Group 1 - Jichuan Pharmaceutical's "Children's Constipation Granules" has received a registration application acceptance notice, marking it as the first innovative traditional Chinese medicine specifically for treating pediatric constipation [1] - The product is expected to be the first Class 1 pediatric-specific drug for constipation following the release of the clinical research guidelines in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Innovent Biologics' drug Daberat® has become the first KRAS G12C inhibitor approved in Macau, providing a new targeted therapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2] - In a Phase II clinical trial, Daberat® demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 49.1%, a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 9.7 months, and a 12-month overall survival (OS) rate of 54.4% [2] Group 3 - Sinovac Biotech's special shareholders meeting approved the election of 10 new directors proposed by SAIF Partners, who committed to support the company's dividend distribution plan [3] - The new board members aim to work closely with management to restore trading of the company's common stock and enhance long-term shareholder value [3] Group 4 - Ganli Pharmaceutical expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the first half of 2025, with projected profits between 600 million to 640 million yuan [4] - The company achieved market share expansion through two rounds of insulin procurement, with a significant 32.6% increase in agreement volume during the 2024 procurement [4] Group 5 - Ascentage Pharma's new Bcl-2 inhibitor, Lisangtuo® (APG-2575), has been conditionally approved for marketing in China, becoming the first Bcl-2 inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma [5] - This marks Ascentage Pharma's second innovative drug to be approved and enter the commercialization stage [5] Group 6 - United Biomedical's UBT37034 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction effects when combined with GLP-1 analogs in preclinical studies [6] - The combination therapy demonstrated superior weight loss effects compared to other investigational drugs [6]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [7][71][82]. Core Insights - The report highlights a concentrated period of semi-annual performance forecasts, suggesting a focus on pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations in innovative drugs and related industry chains [7][70]. - Recent policy adjustments by the National Medical Insurance Administration are expected to catalyze innovation and development within the industry [14]. - Notable acquisitions and drug approvals, such as Merck's $10 billion acquisition of Verona and the approval of new drugs like the Bcl-2 inhibitor by Ascentage Pharma, are significant developments [2][27][14]. Industry Data - As of July 10, 2025, the SW pharmaceutical industry has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 28.55, with a valuation premium of 144% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][61]. - The report notes a general upward trend in various sub-sectors, with the medical services sector leading at a 1.56% increase [5][54]. - The report also provides insights into the pricing trends of raw materials, such as vitamins and traditional Chinese medicine, indicating fluctuations and year-on-year changes [15][17]. Company Announcements - Ascentage Pharma's Bcl-2 inhibitor has received conditional approval from the NMPA for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia [27]. - WuXi AppTec anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 20.64% for the first half of 2025, with a significant net profit growth of about 44.43% [28]. - Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals expects a net profit increase of 100.73% to 114.12% for the same period [29].

Group 1 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has released the adjustment plan for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance, Maternity Insurance, and Work Injury Insurance drug catalog, which includes a new commercial health insurance innovative drug catalog, potentially accelerating the commercialization of innovative drugs and enhancing investor confidence in the pharmaceutical sector [1] Group 2 - WuXi AppTec expects a net profit of approximately 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92%, driven by both core business and non-recurring gains, indicating strengthened competitiveness in the global pharmaceutical market [2] Group 3 - As the second Bcl-2 inhibitor approved globally, Ascentage Pharma's "Lisenglitazone" is expected to capture market share quickly, enhancing investor confidence and boosting the company's valuation in the innovative drug sector [3] Group 4 - Federated Pharmaceutical's innovative drug "UBT37034 injection" has received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting overweight or obesity, indicating significant market potential and enhancing the company's competitiveness in the innovative drug field [4] Group 5 - North China Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of approximately 124 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of around 72%, attributed to improved management and operational efficiency, which strengthens investor confidence in the company's future growth [5]

Major Events - QianShi International (00381) subsidiary FuLao Investment signed a memorandum of understanding with Yanji Municipal Government for potential cooperation in digital economy-related businesses in Hong Kong [1] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (02005) obtained production registration approval for potassium chloride and sodium chloride injection (500ml and 250ml) [1] - Basilea Pharmaceutica (02616) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the domestic production registration application of Prujita® (Pralsetinib capsules) [1] - United BioPharma (03933) received FDA approval for new drug clinical trials for UBT37034 injection [1] - China National Pharmaceutical Group (01177) had the application for the new indication of Kumosil capsules for first-line treatment of breast cancer accepted [1] - Oceanwide Holdings (08476) applied to the Stock Exchange for a transfer listing to the main board [1] Financial Data - Kaison Holdings (00102) reported a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 740 million for 2023, a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] - JiaoGe Friends Holdings (01450) achieved a cumulative GMV of approximately CNY 6.98 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of approximately 17.11% [1] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382) reported a smartphone lens shipment of approximately 95.056 million units in June, a month-on-month decrease of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [1] - Fast Retailing (06288) announced a profit attributable to the parent company of JPY 339.099 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [1] - Jianye Real Estate (00832) reported a total property contract sales of CNY 4.44 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% [1] - China Lilang (01234) reported a mid-to-high single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales of "LILANZ" products in the first half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Federated Biotech (Zhuhai Hengqin) Co., Ltd., received FDA approval for its innovative drug UBT37034 injection, which is aimed at treating overweight or obesity [1] Drug Development - UBT37034 is a novel peptide receptor agonist that selectively targets neuropeptide Y2 receptors to aid in weight loss [1] - Preclinical studies in various animal models indicate that UBT37034, when used in conjunction with GLP-1 analogs, can significantly reduce body weight [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its commitment to new product development to enhance its competitiveness and creativity in the biopharmaceutical industry [1] - The anticipated outcomes from these developments are expected to generate greater returns for the company and its shareholders [1]