证券研究报告·海外公司深度·药品及生物科技(HS) 联邦制药（03933.HK） 创新突破，三靶点战略联姻诺和诺德 2025 年 07 月 12 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,754 | 13,759 | 13,860 | 15,001 | 16,261 | | 同比(%) | 21.15 | 0.03 | 0.74 | 8.23 | 8.40 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,701 | 2,660 | 3,112 | 3,102 | 3,384 | | 同比(%) | 70.85 | (1.54) | 17.00 | (0.32) | 9.09 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.86 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.73 | 8.87 | 7.58 | 7.60 | 6.97 | [Table_Tag] ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that government subsidies stimulated sales in Q2, leading to continued positive revenue growth. The competitive landscape in the small home appliance sector has improved, driving profit recovery, while leading players in the major appliance sector are helping to concentrate market share, suggesting an increase in holdings [2][29]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: 1) The improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances brings profit elasticity, particularly in the vacuum cleaner sector, which has high growth potential and low penetration rates. The kitchen small appliances sector is gradually returning to growth after two years of decline, with a significant increase in sales during the 618 shopping festival [2][29]. - The report indicates that leading brands in the white goods sector are dominating the current price competition, leading to increased industry concentration. The export performance of major appliance manufacturers is expected to gradually recover as uncertainties around tariff policies are clarified [3][31]. Group 2 - The company Salted Fish's differentiated product, the konjac sauce, achieved over 100 million in monthly sales within 16 months, setting a record for the fastest-selling snack product. The konjac snack segment is still in a high-growth phase, supported by a strong supply chain and channel capabilities [7][8]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with its own brand "Mowon," developing localized products based on local tastes, which is expected to drive growth in international markets [8][9]. - The report maintains an "increase holdings" rating for the company, projecting EPS of 2.99, 3.73, and 4.63 for 2025-2027, with a target price of 100.00 yuan based on strong performance in konjac products [7][8].

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 这笔预付款源于双方于2025年3月24日签署的一项重要合作协议。当日，联邦制药全资控股的联邦生物科技（珠海横琴）有限公司与诺和诺德 正式订立独家许可协议，达成全球范围内的创新药物开发合作。 协议核心内容涉及UBT251，一种具备靶向GLP-1（胰高血糖素样肽-1）受体、GIP（葡萄糖依赖性促胰岛素多肽）受体以及胰高血糖素受体三 重作用机制的在研药物。该药物目前处于临床开发阶段，旨在用于治疗肥胖、2型糖尿病及其他代谢相关疾病。 根据协议条款，诺和诺德将获得UBT251在全球（不包括中国内地、香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区及台湾地区）范围内的开发、生产及商 业化独家权利，而联邦生物科技则保留该药物在大中华区的相关权益。 合作框架下，联邦生物科技有资格获得总计2亿美元的预付款及高达18亿美元的里程碑付款，具体金额将根据开发和商业化进程中达成的关键节 点确定。此外，联邦生物还将基于诺和诺德在合作地区的年度净销售额，按分层比例收取销售提成。 *本文仅供医疗卫生专业人士参考 版权声明：所有「GLP1减重宝典」的原创文章，转载须联系授权，并在文首/文末注明来源、作者、微信ID，否则减重宝 ...

三生制药、石药集团的巨额BD交易大单，让外界看到了中国创新药产品的价值，也使得"中国研发，海 外授权"的创新药发展逻辑被广泛认可，中国创新药行业的角色正在实现从"跟随者"到"参与者"乃至"贡 献者"的跨越式发展。 巨额BD交易频现 今年以来，中国创新药企业巨额BD交易频现。 证券时报记者李映泉 近一个月以来，中国创新药企对外授权巨额交易捷报频传。先是三生制药公布了一项总金额超60亿美元 的对外授权BD（商务拓展）大单，其12.5亿美元首付款创下此前最高纪录；紧接着是石药集团宣布与 阿斯利康订立战略研发合作协议，总金额达53.3亿美元。 医药魔方数据显示，2024年国产创新药BD交易总金额和首付款分别为523亿美元和41亿美元，双双刷新 历史最高纪录。今年截至5月27日，国产创新药BD总金额已经高达455亿美元，首付款达22亿美元，全 年交易金额有望再创新高。 今年1月，信达生物公告，将一款Delta样配体3（DLL3）新一代抗体偶联药物（ADC）IBI3009的全球 开发、生产和商业化独家权益授权给罗氏，信达生物将获得8000万美元的首付款、最高达10亿美元的开 发和商业化潜在里程碑付款，以及未来基于全球销售 ...

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指下試 6 月低位 22,668 點：內地 5 月推出一籃子金融政策支持穩市場 穩預期，包括降準、降息、加推結構性貨幣政策工具等，市場預期為新一 輪政策周期開端，其他跟進政策將會適時加推；加上，中美在 5 月中旬於 瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進 口貨品將由 125%降至 10%，為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協 議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅暫停期過後能否取長期協議。目前恒指估值 重返合理水平，惟以伊戰爭升級，避險情緒升溫，恒指或下試 6 月低位 22,668 點。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國 6 月標普全球製造業 PMI； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 美炸伊朗核設施 德黑蘭誓封海峽； 據報歐盟將限制中國競標醫療器材市場； 以舊換新"國補"將持續 中央資金將分批下達； 企業消息 ➢ 泡泡瑪特(9992)成立電影工作室 推動畫劇集《Labubu與朋友們》； 中國神華(1088 ...

转自：一度医药 今日（2025年6月20日），联邦制药正式发布公告，宣布其全资子公司联邦生物科技已收到诺和诺德支 付的1.8亿美元预付款，这笔资金在扣除丹麦预缴税后约合人民币12.93亿元。 尽管2亿美元首付款（含此次收到的1.8亿美元）相当于2024年净利润的约60%，但投资者更关注的是短 期业绩下滑的现实压力。这种"利好出尽是利空"的市场心理，反映了中国药企在创新转型过程中面临的 估值困境。 随着1.8亿美元预付款到账，UBT251项目的关键价值验证阶段正式开启。该药物即将进入临床概念验证 阶段，未来18-24个月的数据读出将决定其商业价值能否实现。 这标志着双方于2025年3月24日签订的独家许可协议正式生效。根据协议，联邦制药将三靶点减肥新药 UBT251在中国以外地区的全球权益授予诺和诺德，潜在总收益高达20亿美元。 资本市场对此反应似乎很平淡，与三个月前协议签署时股价暴跌11.78%形成微妙呼应。 曾遭遇股价寒流 三个月前，联邦制药与诺和诺德签署了这项价值20亿美元的重磅协议。不过，资本市场反应却很反常 ——在宣布获得诺和诺德20亿美元大单的次日，联邦制药股价开盘重挫13%，最终收跌11.78%， ...

证券研究报告 看好全球创新药"中国化" 估值重塑 ——创新药2025半年度策略 行业评级：看好 2025年6月18日 分析师 郭双喜 盖文化 邮箱 guoshuangxi@stocke.com.cn gaiwenhua@stocke.come.cn 电话 19801116960 15380994183 证书编号 S1230521110002 S1230524090006 投资要点 1、财务：商业放量，盈利改善 2、MNC：IO+ADC"中国化" 突出 添加标题 ➢ 研发：高基数下，投入YOY继续放缓。2024年32家样本创新药企研发投入672亿（YOY7.23%），较高绝对值 下仍延续增长趋势，彰显本土创新持续投入趋势。 95% ➢ 费用率：持续优化，扭亏/盈利持续兑现。2021-2024年22家样本创新药企业（包括A股和H股）销售费用率和 研发费用率持续下降，这也驱动百济神州、信达生物等公司盈利预期改善。我们看好创新药产品持续放量、销 售费用率、研发费用率持续优化基础上带来更多创新药企业陆续减亏、盈利的确定性趋势。 ➢ 商业化：存量快放量，增量仍强劲。17家商业化创新药企业2024年产品销售收入（剔除BD交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a bullish trend, highlighted by the significant stock price increase of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, which has risen over 102% in the past five months, surpassing a market capitalization of HKD 100 billion [1]. Company Summary - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's stock fell by 2.32%, closing at HKD 8.84 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 101.82 billion [2]. - CSPC has entered into a strategic research collaboration agreement with global biopharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, utilizing CSPC's AI-driven drug discovery platform to develop new oral small molecule candidates [5]. - Under the agreement, CSPC will receive an upfront payment of USD 110 million, with potential milestone payments totaling up to USD 16.2 billion for research and USD 3.6 billion for sales, along with a single-digit sales royalty based on annual net sales [5]. Industry Summary - The collaboration aims to discover clinical candidates for multiple targets with potential for treating various diseases, including a preclinical small molecule oral therapy for immune diseases [7]. - AstraZeneca retains exclusive licensing rights to develop and commercialize the candidates identified through this collaboration globally [8]. - AstraZeneca's executive vice president emphasized the commitment to innovation and addressing chronic diseases affecting over 2 billion people globally, marking this collaboration as part of their efforts to revitalize their business in China [9]. - CSPC has announced this as its second business development (BD) deal since June, following a previous announcement regarding potential licensing collaborations worth approximately USD 5 billion [11]. - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is witnessing rapid growth in outbound collaborations, with significant BD deals being signed, including a recent USD 2 billion upfront payment deal by a different company [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a significant moment, with multiple companies, including China Biologic Products, announcing major out-licensing deals and collaborations, indicating a strong trend towards internationalization and growth in the industry [1][2][6] Group 1: Company Developments - China Biologic Products announced at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference that it expects at least one major out-licensing deal to be finalized this year, which is a key strategic goal for the company [2][3] - The company has identified several products with out-licensing potential, including PDE3/4, HER2 bispecific antibodies, and various ADCs, and has begun outreach to potential partners [3][4] - The stock price of China Biologic Products surged nearly 15% following the announcement of these developments, reflecting strong market interest [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The trend of out-licensing deals among Chinese innovative drug companies is gaining momentum, with several companies announcing significant transactions, such as 60.5 billion USD by 3SBio and 50 billion USD by CSPC [5][6] - In the first quarter of 2025, there were 41 out-licensing transactions in China, totaling 36.93 billion USD, indicating a rapid increase in activity compared to previous years [5] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong has seen substantial growth, with an ETF rising approximately 60% this year, driven by the performance of companies like 3SBio and CSPC [6] Group 3: Clinical Advancements - China Biologic Products has made significant progress in clinical trials, with its PDE3/4 inhibitor TQC3721 recently approved for Phase III trials for COPD, positioning it as a global leader in development [3][4] - The company has also received approvals for its HER2 bispecific ADC TQB2102 and is advancing multiple other projects in the ADC and bispecific antibody fields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a revitalization with strong performance in antibiotic production and innovative drug development, particularly in the insulin and animal health sectors [1][2][3][4]. Antibiotic and Insulin Business - The company has a leading position in the antibiotic market, focusing on a full industrial chain including key products like 6-APA and amoxicillin, with a stable long-term outlook despite short-term price fluctuations [1]. - The company successfully participated in the national procurement of insulin, achieving A-class bids for all six products, which is expected to enhance market share as the demand for third-generation insulin products increases [1][2]. - The antibiotic procurement risks have been largely mitigated, with most major products already completed in the procurement process [1]. Innovative Drug Development - UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-receptor agonist, has shown promising results in Phase I clinical trials, leading to a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk, including an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion [1][2]. - The company is also advancing other innovative treatments, including a small molecule RASP inhibitor for dry eye syndrome and a JAK1 inhibitor for atopic dermatitis, both in clinical trials [1]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 137.6 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%, driven by a 14.8% increase in intermediate revenue [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue fluctuations in the coming years, projecting revenues of 144.0 billion, 130.0 billion, and 133.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding profit changes [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 38.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12% [2][4]. - The company’s valuation includes 142 billion HKD for its intermediate and raw material business, and 223 billion HKD for its formulation business, alongside 34 billion HKD in net cash [4][5].