UBT37034(Y2R激动剂)
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中金:维持联邦制药(03933)跑赢行业评级 目标价19港元
智通财经网· 2025-09-01 01:49
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a downward adjustment in the net profit forecast for Lianbang Pharmaceutical for 2025/2026 due to pressure on raw material and intermediate prices, with target prices reflecting a potential upside from current stock prices [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue of 7.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a gross profit of 3.924 billion yuan, corresponding to a gross margin of 52.2%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The pre-tax profit was 2.420 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.24%, leading to a net profit of 1.894 billion yuan, also up 27.02% year-on-year, primarily driven by a one-time contribution from the UBT251 licensing fee and increased sales of insulin products [2] Group 2: Research and Development - The company is entering a harvest period in innovation and has focused on the GLP-1 sector, with a licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251, generating 1.434 billion yuan in confirmed revenue in 1H25 [3] - UBT251 has completed Phase II clinical trials for obesity and diabetes indications in China, and UBT37034 has received FDA approval for weight loss clinical trials, showing significant weight reduction when used with GLP-1 analogs [3] - R&D expenses in 1H25 were 499 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, with 43 human drug projects in development, including 22 first-class new drugs, indicating a robust product pipeline [3] Group 3: Product Segments - In 1H25, revenue from formulation products (excluding external licensing) was 2.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while segment profit decreased by 35.4% [4] - Insulin series revenue reached 961 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 74.5%, with insulin analog sales up 90.4%, benefiting from increased domestic market share and overseas expansion [4] - The company has successfully exported insulin products to Brazil and has secured antibiotic product bids in Malaysia, with animal health products registered in Vietnam and Australia [4] Group 4: Raw Materials and Intermediates - In 1H25, intermediate revenue was 1.011 billion yuan, down 23.1%, with segment profit declining by 40.6%, while raw material revenue was 2.530 billion yuan, down 27.0%, and segment profit fell by 52.0% [5] - Profitability is under pressure due to price declines in products like 6-APA and a temporary drop in antibiotic demand, although production capacity for 6-APA and penicillin G potassium salt has reached full capacity [5] - The company anticipates that its raw material projects in Zhuhai and Inner Mongolia will commence production in October 2025 [5]