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摩根士丹利:政府债券拍卖-未来一个月展望
摩根· 2025-06-23 02:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The G7 net DV01 is projected to be $94.3 million per basis point, which is higher than the average of $72.3 million per basis point, indicating increased market activity [2][12] - In the euro area, net issuance is expected to be €14.6 billion over the next five weeks, with a total supply of €97.7 billion against €18.2 billion in coupons and €64.9 billion in redemptions [3][41] - The US is anticipated to issue $342 billion in the next five weeks, resulting in a net issuance of $94.3 billion after accounting for $29.1 billion in coupons and $218.6 billion in redemptions [5][44] Summary by Sections Government Bond Auctions - The upcoming week will see significant bond issuances across various countries, including $69 billion in 2-year UST, $70 billion in 5-year UST, and $44 billion in 7-year UST in the US [4][5] - In the UK, issuances include £1.7 billion in UKTi 1.125% Gilt 2035 and £3.25 billion in UKT 4.375% Gilt 2040 [4] - Japan will issue ¥2.6 trillion in 2-year JGB and ¥1 trillion in 20-year JGB [6] Supply Overview - The report outlines a detailed schedule of bond supply for the upcoming weeks, indicating a robust issuance plan across G7 countries [11][42] - The total cash flow for the euro area is projected to be negative, with significant redemptions expected to exceed new issuances [41] G7 Gross and Net Issuance - The G7 gross issuance figures show fluctuations, with the US leading in issuance amounts, followed by Japan and Canada [12][18] - The net issuance data indicates varying trends across countries, with the US showing a positive net issuance while the euro area reflects negative net issuance [18][20]
摩根士丹利:政府债券拍卖-月度前瞻
摩根· 2025-06-09 05:41
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The G7 net DV01 is projected to be $109.3 million per basis point, significantly higher than the average of $72 million per basis point, indicating a robust supply environment [2][12][20] - In the US, a total of $468 billion in supply is expected over the next five weeks, with net issuance projected at $266.9 billion after accounting for coupons and redemptions [5][46] - The euro area anticipates approximately €117.7 billion in supply over the next five weeks, resulting in a net issuance of €39.4 billion [3][42] Summary by Sections Government Bond Auctions - The US will issue a new 3-year UST for an estimated $58 billion, a 10-year UST for $39 billion, and a 30-year UST for $22 billion [5] - In the UK, issuance includes UKT 4.5% Gilt 2035 for £4.25 billion and a syndicated launch of UKTi 1.75% Gilt 2038 for £4 billion [4] - Japan plans two auctions for enhanced liquidity totaling ¥1.1 trillion [6] Supply Overview - The report outlines a detailed schedule of bond supply across various countries, including specific amounts and types of bonds to be issued [11] - The total expected issuance in the euro area is €117.7 billion, with €15.8 billion in coupons and €62.4 billion in redemptions [3][42] G7 Gross Notional and DV01 Estimates - The G7 gross issuance shows significant fluctuations, with the US leading in issuance amounts, particularly in the weeks of May and June [12][13] - The DV01 for the G7 indicates a total of $120.4 million per basis point for the week of June 9, reflecting a strong issuance environment [13][20] Net Issuance and Cash Flow - The report highlights net issuance trends, with the US showing a positive net DV01 of $82 million per basis point for the week of June 9 [20][27] - The UK and Japan exhibit varying net issuance figures, with the UK showing a negative net DV01 in some weeks, indicating potential challenges in the market [18][31]