October 10, 2025 11:04 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America A Fond Farewell to 10-Year Treasury Yields Above 4.00% The US government shutdown and escalation in trade tensions present obvious challenges to the glass-half-full view of most investors. The longer the shutdown lasts and higher trade policy uncertainty climbs, the more the glass will look half-empty. Buy US Treasuries before more 4-handles disappear. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant inflows into various asset classes, with equities receiving $19.6 billion and bonds $19.2 billion, indicating strong investor interest [12][50] - The "Magnificent 7" stocks are noted to constitute 35% of the US market cap, drawing parallels to historical market concentration in sectors like railroads [1][26] - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment, emphasizing the potential for a flattening US yield curve and the implications for interest rates [3][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at 24.4%, bitcoin at 23.7%, and stocks at 11.9%, while oil and the US dollar have declined by 3.2% and 7.9% respectively [1] - The report notes that the US dollar's recent rally is attributed to extreme short positioning and a hawkish Federal Reserve [2][17] Asset Flows - Inflows into investment-grade bonds reached $10.2 billion, marking the second-highest annual inflow ever [13][51] - BofA private clients have a record-high AUM of $4.1 trillion, with 64.2% allocated to stocks, the highest since March 2022 [15][19] Economic Indicators - The report indicates that US real domestic sales increased by 1.1%, the slowest growth since Q3 2022, suggesting a cooling economy [20][42] - The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator decreased to 6.3, reflecting lighter inflows to emerging market debt and a pullback in global stock index breadth [15][19] Sector Analysis - The report identifies a shift in momentum trades from gold and crypto back to US big tech, driven by increased AI capital expenditure [18] - Inflows into US large-cap stocks were significant, with an annualized inflow of $419 billion, the second highest ever [19][43] Historical Context - The report draws historical comparisons, noting that railroads once made up 63% of the US stock market cap in 1881, highlighting the potential for current tech stocks to reach similar levels of market concentration [1][4][21]

29 May 2025 Emerging bond dynamic and regime change Toronto The tariff threat to the tariff retreat has now been reduced to a two-day cycle. Donald Trump threatened Europe with a higher 50% tariff last Friday and then on Sunday extended the deadline for Europe to come to an agreement from 1 June to 9 July. This latest twist and turn will have further convinced investors of what many were already assuming, based on GREED & fear's meetings with investors in North America this week. That is, that the 47th Pres ...