Nearshoring, Mexico investment and tightening truck capacity could reshape North American freight flows next year. Uber Freight’s latest market outlook points to a U.S. freight market that is quietly stabilizing and setting up for tighter conditions in 2026, with cross-border trade with Mexico emerging as one of the most important structural drivers. Uber Freight is a part of San Francisco-based Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER), which operates three platforms: Uber (ride-hailing), Uber Eats (food and ...

Core Insights - Uber Technologies has pursued aggressive global expansion and diversification beyond ride-sharing, establishing significant revenue streams through Uber Eats and Uber Freight, aiming to create a comprehensive transportation and delivery ecosystem [1] - Lyft has adopted a concentrated strategy focused primarily on ride-sharing within the United States, limiting its exposure to faster-growing markets like delivery and international operations [2] Uber's Performance - Uber reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share of $3.11 exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents, and total revenues of $13.46 billion surpassing the estimate of $13.26 billion, reflecting a 20.4% year-over-year increase [4] - The company maintained an excellent earnings surprise record, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters with an average beat exceeding 200% [5] - Despite the strong performance, Uber's shares declined post-earnings due to soft EBITDA guidance for the fourth quarter, with management projecting adjusted EBITDA between $2.41 billion and $2.51 billion [6][7] Lyft's Performance - Lyft's third-quarter 2025 results showed revenues of $1.68 billion and adjusted EPS of 26 cents, both missing estimates, while gross bookings rose 18% year-over-year to $4.8 billion, marking the 18th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [9][12][14] - Lyft's partnership with Curb has positively impacted its market momentum, leading to double-digit gains since the earnings release [15] - The company expects fourth-quarter gross bookings in the range of $5.01 billion to $5.13 billion, indicating 17-20% growth from the previous year [14] Valuation Comparison - Lyft is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.26X, which is more favorable compared to Uber's 3.22X, indicating a better valuation picture for Lyft [19] - Lyft's recent performance and strategic partnerships place it on a more solid footing than Uber, which faces challenges with its EBITDA guidance and concerns over the profitability of autonomous vehicles [20] Investment Outlook - Based on the analysis, Lyft is positioned as a stronger investment opportunity compared to Uber, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) while Uber holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [21]

Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies reported strong growth in key metrics, but the stock price fell over 5% due to market reactions and slight margin misses, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [1][2][19]. Financial Performance - Uber's trips, gross bookings, and revenue grew by 22%, 21%, and 20% respectively, exceeding expectations, while monthly active platform customers increased by 17% [3][12]. - The company reported earnings of $311 per share, significantly higher than the expected $0.69, although this included a $4.9 billion benefit from a tax valuation release [4][3]. - Uber Eats showed remarkable performance with 25% gross bookings growth and 29% revenue growth, while the mobility segment grew by 20% in both gross bookings and revenue [4][5]. Market Context - The stock's decline was influenced by a broader market downturn and specific weaknesses in travel stocks, which affected investor sentiment [6][7]. - Increased competition in food delivery from companies like DoorDash and in ride-sharing from Lyft may have contributed to concerns about Uber's margins [8][10]. Strategic Outlook - Uber provided strong guidance for the current quarter, indicating healthy gross bookings outlook, although EBIT forecast was in line with expectations [6]. - The company is focusing on growing market share in both ride-sharing and delivery, enhancing customer engagement, and expanding the Uber One membership program [14][15]. - Customer engagement improved by 4% in the quarter, with users of both services spending three times more and retaining 35% better than single-service users [15][16]. Profitability and Growth - Despite a slight miss in margins, adjusted earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew by 33% year-over-year, indicating strong profitability [17][19]. - Uber's growth is accelerating, with the mobility business achieving its best gross bookings growth in six quarters and the delivery business its best growth since Q2 2022 [12][19].

Core Insights - Uber Technologies reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share of $3.11 exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents, marking over 100% year-over-year growth [1][9] - Total revenues reached $13.46 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.26 billion, reflecting a 20.4% year-over-year increase [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Mobility segment contributed 57% of total revenues, with a reported revenue of $7.68 billion, up 20% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of $7.50 billion [2] - Delivery segment revenues increased by 29% year-over-year to $4.47 billion, also surpassing the expected $4.06 billion [2] - Freight revenues remained flat at $1.30 billion year-over-year, falling short of the expected $1.31 billion [3] Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA surged 33% year-over-year to $2.25 billion, within the guided range of $2.19 billion to $2.29 billion [3] - Total gross bookings rose 21% year-over-year to $49.74 billion, aligning with the guidance of $48.25 billion to $49.75 billion [5] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $2.32 billion, with free cash flow at $2.23 billion [6] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $8.43 billion from $6.43 billion in the previous quarter, while long-term debt rose to $10.6 billion from $9.57 billion [5] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, Uber anticipates gross bookings between $52.25 billion and $53.75 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 17-21% [7] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $2.41 billion to $2.51 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 36% [7]

Core Insights - Uber's freight business revenue remained stagnant at $1.31 billion in Q3, unchanged from the previous year, with a slight increase in adjusted EBITDA loss to $20 million from $19 million [1] - Overall, Uber reported record income from operations of $1.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase, driven by mobility and delivery segments [2] Financial Performance - Uber's trips grew by 22% and gross bookings increased by 21% to $49.7 billion, with delivery revenue surging by 29% and mobility growing by 20%, indicating a shift towards higher-margin services [5] - The company forecasts Q4 gross bookings between $52.25 billion and $53.75 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected to reach up to $2.51 billion, representing growth of up to 36% year over year [6] Strategic Direction - CEO Dara Khosrowshahi emphasized the importance of innovation and execution in driving performance, highlighting the logistics ecosystem as central to Uber's future technology roadmap [3] - Plans to integrate human drivers and autonomous vehicles into a single marketplace were discussed, along with the intention to expand into local commerce and utilize generative AI for operational optimization [4]

Financial Performance - Uber's Q3 2025 revenue reached $13467 million, a 19% increase year-over-year in constant currency[61],[62] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $2256 million, representing a 33% increase year-over-year[64],[67] - Gross Bookings grew by 21% year-over-year in constant currency, reaching $49740 million in Q3 2025[55],[57],[58] Segment Highlights - Mobility Gross Bookings saw a 19% year-over-year increase in constant currency, reaching $25111 million[71],[73] - Delivery Gross Bookings experienced a 24% year-over-year increase in constant currency, totaling $23322 million[76],[81] - Freight revenue remained relatively flat year-over-year, with $1308 million in Q3 2025[84] Operational Metrics - Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) increased by 17% year-over-year[49] - Total Trips grew by 22% year-over-year[50] - Monthly Platform Frequency increased by 27% after Grocery & Retail (G&R) integration, reaching 61 trips[43] Strategic Initiatives - Grocery & Retail (G&R) expands Delivery's addressable market by ~$2 trillion[21] - G&R is driving Delivery audience growth, with 7% of first-time Delivery users acquired through G&R[39] - G&R is generating ~$12 billion Gross Bookings run-rate[44],[45]

Leadership Change - Uber Freight CEO Lior Ron departs to become COO of self-driving startup Waabi [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman has shifted his investment focus from Alphabet to Uber Technologies, indicating a strong belief in Uber's potential for growth and profitability [1][5]. Investment Details - Pershing Square Capital Management began acquiring Uber shares in January 2025, amassing 30.3 million shares, which represents 18.5% of the hedge fund's portfolio, valued at $2.21 billion as of March 31, 2025 [3][4]. - This marks the first significant investment in Uber by Pershing Square, although Ackman had previously invested in the company through a venture fund [5][6]. Reasons for Investment - Ackman is familiar with Uber's business model and has been a long-term customer, which contributes to his confidence in the company [6]. - He believes that current CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has effectively transformed Uber into a profitable and cash-generating entity, despite past management issues [7]. - Ackman perceives Uber as undervalued, stating it can be purchased at a significant discount to its intrinsic value, although the stock has risen nearly 12% since his initial post [7][8]. Analyst Consensus - A majority of Wall Street analysts share Ackman's positive outlook on Uber, with 13 out of 54 analysts rating it as a strong buy and an average 12-month price target suggesting a 15% upside potential [8]. Growth Potential - Uber is experiencing strong revenue and earnings growth, with multiple avenues for expansion, including autonomous ride-hailing, Uber Eats, and Uber Freight [9]. Competitive Landscape - Uber faces significant competition from Lyft in the U.S., Bolt in Europe, and Didi in Latin America, which could impact its market position [10]. - The emergence of autonomous ride-hailing services presents both opportunities and threats, particularly if competitors like Tesla succeed in launching robotaxi services [10]. Valuation Concerns - Despite Ackman's belief in Uber's value, the stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 30.6, necessitating exceptional growth for it to be considered attractively valued [11].

Core Insights - Uber plans to launch a B2B logistics service in India in partnership with the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) to enhance digital commerce for small businesses [1][2] - The service will initially focus on food deliveries, expanding later to eCommerce, grocery, pharmacy, and healthcare logistics [2] - ONDC aims to create a robust digital public infrastructure to support digital commerce and ensure a level playing field for businesses in India [4][5] Group 1 - Uber's logistics offering in India will be similar to the Uber Direct service launched in the U.S. in 2020, but will be limited to businesses on the ONDC network [2] - The ONDC network has scaled to include over 45 participants and processes 25,000 retail orders per day across more than 400 cities in its first year [5] - The collaboration also allows Uber app users to book tickets for the Delhi Metro, enhancing public transport accessibility [4]

Core Insights - Uber Technologies (UBER) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, reflecting a significant increase of 259.4% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $11.6 billion, marking a 14.5% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.4%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [1][2] Revenue Projections - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- Mobility' is $6.55 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 16.3% [4] - 'Revenue- Freight' is expected to reach $1.30 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.9% from the prior year [4] - 'Revenue- Delivery' is projected at $3.78 billion, indicating a 17.7% increase year-over-year [4] Geographic Revenue Estimates - 'Geographic Revenue- Latin America' is forecasted at $736.14 million, a 3.7% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Geographic Revenue- United States and Canada' is expected to be $6.18 billion, representing a 12.9% increase [5] - 'Geographic Revenue- Asia Pacific' is projected at $1.34 billion, indicating a 12.5% increase [5] - 'Geographic Revenue- Europe, Middle East and Africa' is estimated at $3.27 billion, reflecting an 18.6% increase year-over-year [6] Gross Bookings Estimates - Total 'Gross Bookings' are expected to reach $42.87 billion, up from $37.65 billion year-over-year [6] - 'Gross Bookings - Delivery' is projected at $20.28 billion, compared to $17.70 billion in the previous year [7] - 'Gross Bookings - Mobility' is estimated at $21.49 billion, up from $18.67 billion year-over-year [7] - 'Gross Bookings - Freight' is expected to be $1.30 billion, slightly up from $1.28 billion [8] Monthly Active Platform Consumers - Analysts predict that 'Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs)' will reach 168 million, an increase from 149 million year-over-year [8] Stock Performance - Uber shares have increased by 15.8% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.5% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8]