Core Insights - Upstart Holdings has faced a challenging four years, with stock performance stagnating since its peak in late 2021, despite a return to growth in 2023 [1][2] - The company utilizes an AI algorithm that assesses over 2,500 variables to evaluate creditworthiness, resulting in 43% more loan approvals without additional defaults compared to traditional methods [4][3] - Upstart's revenue increased nearly 80% year-over-year through the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive trajectory moving forward [5] Company Overview - Upstart is a unique lending platform that differentiates itself from traditional credit scoring agencies like Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion by employing advanced AI technology [3] - The platform has gained traction, with over 100 banks and credit unions as regular customers [5] Financial Performance - Despite a recent downturn in loan originations due to economic headwinds, analysts project a per-share profit of $2.38 for the current year, with the stock trading at less than 20 times this figure, suggesting it is undervalued [9][6] - The company's gross margin stands at an impressive 97.61%, reflecting strong operational efficiency [7] Market Sentiment - The stock has not reacted positively to recent warnings about economic challenges affecting loan origination, leading to market panic [6] - Analysts expect that as the year progresses, investors will recognize the company's actual profit potential, which has been understated in recent earnings reports [9]

The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates as a leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) for media buyers, differentiating itself from competitors like Google and Meta by not owning media content [3] - The company has been recognized as a DSP technology leader, particularly in connected TV advertising, and utilizes AI to enhance its digital media buying process [4] - The Trade Desk has strong partnerships in retail advertising with companies like Albertsons, Dollar General, and Walmart, which provide unique measurement opportunities [5] - The stock is currently 49% below its record high, with a target price of $135 per share indicating a potential 90% upside from its current price of $71 [5] - Earnings are expected to grow at 12% annually through 2026, with a current valuation of 31 times earnings, which may be reasonable given past performance [6] - The company has a strong competitive position in a growing industry, making it a potential buy for patient investors [7] Upstart - Upstart provides an AI-driven lending platform that improves credit risk assessment compared to traditional models, analyzing thousands of signals to identify fraud and estimate default risk [8] - The platform allows lenders to approve more borrowers at lower interest rates, enhancing profitability and benefiting from a network effect as AI models improve over time [9] - Upstart's adjusted earnings are projected to grow at 195% annually through 2026, with a current valuation of 165 times earnings, which appears reasonable [11] - The stock is currently 86% below its record high, with a target price of $85 per share suggesting a 57% upside from its current price of $54 [5] - Long-term investors may find value in Upstart's compelling proposition for banks and credit unions, despite sensitivity to interest rate changes [10][12]

Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir is expected to become a $1 trillion company within three years, indicating a 240% upside from its current market value of $294 billion [1] - The company has shifted focus from bespoke data analytics for the U.S. intelligence community to modular software platforms for commercial and government sectors, with core products Gotham and Foundry [3] - In 2023, Palantir launched an Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) that integrates generative AI into data analytics workflows, recognized by Forrester Research as a technology leader in AI and machine learning [4] - In Q1, Palantir's customer count rose 39% to 769, average spend per customer increased 24%, and revenue grew 39% to $884 million, with non-GAAP earnings jumping 62% to $0.13 per diluted share [5][6] - Wall Street estimates adjusted earnings will grow at 31% annually through 2026, leading to a current valuation of 270 times earnings [6] Group 2: Upstart - Upstart's lending platform utilizes AI to assess credit risk more accurately than traditional methods, benefiting from a network effect that enhances its machine learning models [8] - The company reported strong Q1 results, with loan originations more than doubling, revenue increasing 67% to $2.1 billion, and non-GAAP net income rising to $0.30 per diluted share from a loss of $0.31 in the same quarter last year [9] - Despite strong performance, Upstart's stock declined post-earnings due to investor concerns about the lending environment and potential economic recession [10] - Wall Street anticipates adjusted earnings growth of 195% annually through 2026, making the current valuation of 140 times earnings appear reasonable [11] - Upstart-powered loans have outperformed the two-year Treasury yield by an average of 8 percentage points over the last eight quarters, indicating strong demand potential in a $3 trillion addressable market [12]