Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a draft regulation aimed at tightening the control of visible pollutants (black smoke) from operational ships, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus from new ship designs to the management of existing vessels throughout their lifecycle [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The draft regulation expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships and changes the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, establishing a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2 [1]. - The new regulation aims to address the issue of black smoke emissions caused by improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching in existing ships, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [1][2]. - Current standards are outdated, and enforcement challenges exist due to the complexity and high costs associated with the existing measurement methods [2]. Group 2: Environmental Impact - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for significant portions of non-road mobile source emissions in China, with hydrocarbons (27.4%), nitrogen oxides (35.7%), and particulate matter (28.6%) [2]. - The implementation of the new standards is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The regulatory framework established by the draft is expected to drive the ship fuel market towards cleaner and more diversified fuel options, despite not directly banning traditional oil fuels [3]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is anticipated to decline gradually due to stricter regulations and the rise of alternative fuels [4][5]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has already captured a significant share of the global marine fuel market, reaching 54.43% in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Shipowners face two main choices: either deeply maintain and retrofit existing oil-fueled ships or transition to cleaner alternative fuels [6]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to diversify by developing renewable energy and synthetic liquid fuels, leveraging their existing chemical processing advantages [6][7]. - The draft regulation presents opportunities for renewable energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [7].