Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a draft regulation aimed at tightening the control of visible pollutants (black smoke) from operational ships, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus from new ship designs to the management of existing vessels throughout their lifecycle [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The draft regulation expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships and changes the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, establishing a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2 [1]. - The new regulation aims to address the issue of black smoke emissions caused by improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching in existing ships, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [1][2]. - Current standards are outdated, and enforcement challenges exist due to the complexity and high costs associated with the existing measurement methods [2]. Group 2: Environmental Impact - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for significant portions of non-road mobile source emissions in China, with hydrocarbons (27.4%), nitrogen oxides (35.7%), and particulate matter (28.6%) [2]. - The implementation of the new standards is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The regulatory framework established by the draft is expected to drive the ship fuel market towards cleaner and more diversified fuel options, despite not directly banning traditional oil fuels [3]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is anticipated to decline gradually due to stricter regulations and the rise of alternative fuels [4][5]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has already captured a significant share of the global marine fuel market, reaching 54.43% in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Shipowners face two main choices: either deeply maintain and retrofit existing oil-fueled ships or transition to cleaner alternative fuels [6]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to diversify by developing renewable energy and synthetic liquid fuels, leveraging their existing chemical processing advantages [6][7]. - The draft regulation presents opportunities for renewable energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the draft "Emission Smoke Density Limits and Measurement Methods for Ships," which aims to enhance the regulation of visible pollutants from existing ships, marking a shift from source control to lifecycle management [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The draft expands its scope from diesel engines to all ships, changing the measurement method from engine testing to direct exhaust measurement, and sets a compliance line at Ringelmann blackness level 2, significantly improving regulatory precision [3]. - The new regulations address the issue of black smoke emissions from existing ships due to improper maintenance and poor engine-propeller matching, filling a long-standing regulatory gap [3][5]. Emission Statistics - In 2023, ship emissions accounted for 27.4% of hydrocarbons (HC), 35.7% of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and 28.6% of particulate matter (PM) from non-road mobile sources, highlighting the urgent need to control ship black smoke emissions for better air quality in port cities [4]. Challenges with Current Standards - The existing standards for ship diesel engine emissions are outdated, lacking effective regulatory measures for black smoke from existing ships, necessitating a more scientific and enforceable new standard [5]. - The new standard is expected to reduce particulate matter emissions by approximately 13,800 tons [5]. Market Dynamics - Although the draft does not outright ban traditional oil fuels, the established regulatory framework will drive the shipping fuel market towards cleaner and more diverse options [7]. - The market share of traditional heavy fuel oil is expected to gradually decline due to tightening regulations and the rise of alternative fuels, with low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) becoming increasingly mainstream [8]. Future Fuel Trends - In the short term, the shipping industry will likely rely on commercially viable liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, while long-term goals will necessitate a shift to zero-carbon fuels like green methanol and ammonia [8][10]. - Traditional oil companies are encouraged to transition towards renewable energy and develop electric liquid fuels, leveraging their existing advantages in the chemical sector [10][11]. Opportunities for New Energy Companies - The draft creates opportunities for new energy companies to enter the shipping fuel market by focusing on technological breakthroughs and participating in infrastructure development [11][12].