RT Aaron Siri (@AaronSiriSG)Shame on every doctor and others who argue we should not study whether infant vaccines cause autism because that would be as silly as studying whether sharks, sandwiches, or leprosy cause autism. Parents of autistic children have not claimed sharks, sandwiches, leprosy, etc., caused their child’s autism. Instead, 40 to 70% of them (depending on the study), for decades, based on their intimate knowledge of their children and lived experience, have pointed to vaccines as a cause of ...

Core Points - The first confirmed human infection of the H5N5 strain of avian influenza has occurred in Washington state, marking a significant event in public health [1] - The patient had underlying medical conditions and was in contact with a backyard flock of mixed domestic birds [2] - Investigators found avian influenza in the environment surrounding the household birds, indicating likely exposure through contact with domestic poultry or wild birds [3] - Health officials report that the overall risk to the community remains low, with no evidence of human-to-human transmission [4] - Monitoring is in place for individuals who had close contact with the patient and those who interacted with the backyard flock [5] - Human bird flu cases attract attention from investors in vaccine and antiviral companies, potentially impacting stock movements for firms like Pfizer and Moderna [6]

CSL Limited (OTCQX:CSLLY) (OTCQX:CMXHF), an Australian biotech focused on developing vaccines and blood-derived therapies, on Tuesday announced plans to invest approximately $1.5B in the U.S. over the next five years. The Melbourne-based company said its investments would boost U.S. production of ...

Core Insights - The panel discussion focuses on vaccine access and development, emphasizing the intersection of science, public trust, and health system resilience [2][3] - Vaccines are highlighted as crucial for life expectancy and economic stability, but confidence in vaccines has become polarized, with uneven access across different income levels and regions [3] Group 1: Vaccine Confidence and Hesitancy - Vaccine hesitancy is now influenced by broader societal and political divides, extending beyond misinformation [4] - Strategies to rebuild trust in vaccines are being explored, particularly in the context of pediatric vaccination [4] Group 2: Access and Innovation Challenges - Access to vaccines remains uneven, with significant disparities based on income levels and geographic regions [3] - Innovation in vaccine development faces challenges related to policy and funding, which could impact future preparedness for emerging pathogens [3]

PresentationOkay, everyone, if we can wrap up our conversations so that we can get started and come to the main room. So our final panel today is about vaccines. Everyone, if we could please quiet down, if you don't mind. Thank you. So our final panel today is on Vaccine Access and Development. I'm joined here by my colleague, research analyst, Elena Meng from Gabelli Funds; Michelle Kehily, VP, U.S. Pediatric & Pipeline Vaccines at Merck; Dr. Stephen Morse, Professor of Epidemiology at Columbia Mailman Sch ...

Summary of Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK) FY Conference - November 14, 2025 Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the vaccine industry, particularly vaccine access, development, and public trust in vaccination [2][18][22]. Key Points and Arguments Vaccine Hesitancy and Public Trust - Vaccine hesitancy has increased from approximately 5% to 10% among parents over the last five years, although the majority still choose vaccination for their children [3][4]. - Trust in healthcare professionals remains high, with pediatricians being the most trusted source of information for parents [4][5]. - Broader societal and political divides contribute to vaccine hesitancy, particularly regarding seasonal vaccinations like COVID-19 [4][12]. Value and Access in Vaccination - The value and access functions in the pharmaceutical industry focus on demonstrating the value of vaccines and ensuring patient access [6][7]. - Effective communication with healthcare decision-makers is crucial, emphasizing the broader societal benefits of vaccines, such as productivity gains and educational attainment [9][10]. - A dollar invested in vaccines can yield a return of $20 to $50, highlighting the economic value of vaccination [10]. Global Vaccine Access and Innovation - The Vaccines for Children Program provides zero-cost coverage for 50% of American children, indicating good access to pediatric vaccines [19][20]. - In a constrained pricing environment, maintaining incentives for innovation while ensuring vaccine accessibility is a challenge [22][23]. - Creative solutions, such as public-private partnerships and advanced market commitments, can help balance pricing and access [24][25]. Surveillance and Equity in Vaccine Distribution - Improved global surveillance can enhance equitable vaccine manufacturing and distribution, as seen in historical examples like smallpox eradication [28][30]. - Regionalizing vaccine manufacturing could address equity issues and improve response times during outbreaks [30]. Practical Barriers to Vaccine Implementation - Clinicians face practical barriers such as time constraints during patient visits, which can hinder discussions about vaccination [33][34]. - Workflow considerations, including vaccine storage and availability, are critical for successful vaccine implementation [34][35]. Future Directions in Vaccine Development - New understandings of immune tolerance and regulatory T cells could shape the next generation of vaccines [36][37]. - The importance of investing in surveillance, basic science research, and clinical trial infrastructure is emphasized for pandemic preparedness [44][46]. Communication of Vaccine Value - Communicating the broader societal and economic value of vaccines to payers and policymakers is essential for gaining support [38][39]. - A holistic approach to defining vaccine value, beyond just cost, is necessary to engage various stakeholders effectively [38][39]. Anticipatory R&D and Vaccine Platforms - There is a need for anticipatory R&D pipelines to prepare for future pandemics and neglected diseases, focusing on surveillance and environmental monitoring [44][46]. - The potential for developing vaccines that target multiple pathogens could revolutionize preventive healthcare [45][70]. Other Important Insights - The role of trusted local voices, such as pediatricians and community leaders, is crucial in translating vaccine policies into actionable information for parents [50][51]. - The integration of AI in vaccine development and public health messaging could enhance understanding and trust in vaccination [60][63]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the Merck & Co FY Conference, highlighting the complexities and opportunities within the vaccine industry.

Summary of Vaccine Access and Development Panel Discussion Industry Focus - **Industry**: Vaccine Development and Public Health Key Points and Arguments Vaccine Hesitancy and Public Trust - Vaccine hesitancy has increased from approximately 5% to 10% among parents over the last five years, although the majority still choose vaccination for their children [3][4] - Trust in healthcare professionals remains high, with pediatricians being the most trusted source of information for parents [4][5] - Broader societal and political divides contribute to vaccine hesitancy, particularly regarding seasonal vaccinations like COVID-19 [2][4] Value and Access in Vaccination - The value and access functions in the pharmaceutical industry focus on demonstrating the value of vaccines and ensuring patient access [6][7] - Effective communication with healthcare decision-makers is crucial, emphasizing the broader societal benefits of vaccines, such as productivity gains and educational attainment [9][10] - A dollar invested in vaccines can yield a return of $20 to $50, highlighting the economic value of vaccination [10] Barriers to Vaccine Access - Access to vaccines is generally good in the pediatric space, with programs like Vaccines for Children covering 50% of American children [19][20] - However, access to information and healthcare remains a challenge, leading to pockets of under-vaccinated children [20] Global Vaccine Economics - The economics of biopharmaceuticals are complex, with high costs and risks associated with bringing vaccines to market [21][22] - Innovative partnerships and pricing strategies are necessary to maintain incentives for vaccine development while ensuring accessibility [23][24] Importance of Surveillance - Improved global surveillance can enhance equitable vaccine manufacturing and distribution, as seen in the eradication of smallpox [26][29] - Surveillance can help identify outbreaks and inform targeted vaccination efforts [29] Practical Barriers in Clinical Settings - Time constraints during patient visits can hinder discussions about vaccination, impacting implementation [32][33] - Workflow considerations, such as vaccine storage and availability, are critical for successful vaccination programs [33] Future Directions in Vaccine Development - Advances in understanding immune tolerance and regulatory T cells may shape the next generation of vaccines [34][35] - The potential for AI to analyze vast amounts of data could enhance vaccine development and public health messaging [62][63] Anticipatory R&D for Pandemic Preparedness - Investment in disease surveillance and basic science research is essential for anticipating future health threats [42][43] - The development of vaccines that can target multiple pathogens is a promising area for future research [45] Conclusion - The panel emphasized the need for collaboration among stakeholders, effective communication, and innovative strategies to enhance vaccine access and public trust in vaccination efforts [50][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue grew 20% to $377.4 million, with adjusted EBITDA rising 19% to $27.3 million, yielding adjusted EPS of $0.25 [5][14][15] - Total resident count increased by 13% to 203,766, driven by both organic growth and acquisitions [5][14] - Adjusted EBITDA margins held steady at 7.2%, reflecting the dilutive impact from recent acquisitions and greenfield startups [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The pharmacy segment experienced strong performance, with significant contributions from new acquisitions in Washington and Oregon [14][15] - Gross profit increased to $74.7 million, with a margin of 19.8% [15] - The company noted that its four- to five-year locations are performing at or above the consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin, while newer locations are progressing steadily [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Guardian holds a national market share of 13% in serving assisted living facilities, with 37 pharmacies having over 20% market share and 12 pharmacies exceeding 40% [8][9] - The company serves nearly 204,000 residents, primarily in-house, and expects to benefit from demographic trends as the aging population grows [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive organic growth through new customer facility wins, higher resident adoption, and greenfield expansions, while also pursuing targeted acquisitions [10][11] - Guardian is focused on enhancing profitability by integrating new pharmacies and leveraging technology and operational efficiencies [10][11] - The company is navigating policy changes proactively and advocating for legislative solutions to address industry challenges [6][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in offsetting anticipated EBITDA headwinds despite expected flat revenue growth in 2026 [6][10] - The company highlighted the importance of local leadership and scale in executing its growth strategy [7][10] - Management noted that the acquisition pipeline remains active, with a disciplined approach to selecting operators and markets [18] Other Important Information - The company filed an S-3 shelf registration for up to 6 million shares to provide financial flexibility [12] - Cash position improved to $36 million, with strong cash generation and no debt outstanding [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comparison of vaccine program contribution this year to last year - Management noted steady performance in the vaccine program, with a stronger start in September compared to last year [22][23] Question: Resident count and acquisition impact - Management confirmed that recent acquisitions are included in the Q3 resident count, with expectations for steady growth in Q4 [24][25] Question: Status of negotiations with PBMs regarding IRA issues - Management indicated that discussions are ongoing and they are growing more confident in offsetting headwinds [26][27] Question: Margin impact from acquisitions - Management highlighted that recent acquisitions are dilutive to margins but are expected to improve over time as they mature [33][41] Question: Changes in Medicare Part D plans and resident switching - Management stated it is early in the process to assess the impact of changes in Part D plans, with ongoing efforts to optimize plans for residents [46][48] Question: Changes in drug consumption patterns - Management observed a steady growth in acuity among residents, leading to increased utilization of certain brand medications [50]

Core Insights - Value stocks often trade at discounts, presenting opportunities for investors, but they may be undervalued for valid reasons [1] - Distinguishing between genuine value and value traps is crucial for investors [2] Company Summaries Sirius XM (SIRI) - Sirius XM has a forward P/E ratio of 7.2x and is known for its commercial-free music channels, providing satellite and online radio services in North America [3] - The current trading price is $21.66 per share, but it does not meet the investment criteria set by the company [5] Sealed Air (SEE) - Sealed Air has a forward P/E ratio of 11.4x and specializes in protective and food packaging solutions [6] - The stock price is $36.80, but there are concerns regarding its potential underperformance [7] Pfizer (PFE) - Pfizer has a forward P/E ratio of 7.9x and is a global biopharmaceutical company involved in the development and sale of medicines and vaccines [8] - Concerns include the need for strategic adjustments due to low organic sales performance and reliance on M&A for growth [9] - Projected sales for the next 12 months are expected to be flat, indicating subdued demand [10] - The company has experienced flat unit sales and may need to lower prices to stimulate growth [11] - Capital intensity has increased over the last five years, with a significant decrease in free cash flow margin by 26.5 percentage points [12]

Financial Performance and Key Metrics - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2026 were $363.9 million, a 40% increase year-over-year, driven by a 55% growth in the animal health segment [8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 increased by 102% to $31.2 million, with adjusted net income rising by 112% and adjusted diluted EPS increasing by 108% [8][9] - The animal health segment's net sales reached $283.5 million, reflecting a 55% increase, while mineral nutrition grew by 7% and performance products declined by 7% [9][10] Business Line Performance - Medicated feed additives saw an 81% growth, with the new MFA business contributing $80.5 million in sales [5][9] - Nutritional specialties net sales increased by 13%, primarily due to higher demand for microbial and companion animal products [9] - Vaccine sales grew by 25%, driven by poultry products in Latin America and increased international demand [9] Market Data and Key Metrics - Strong demand for animal-based proteins is noted, supported by global population growth and changing consumer preferences towards high-quality proteins [30] - Livestock sector profitability remains positive across various regions, with lower feed costs encouraging investment in animal health products [30][31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on innovation and execution, with the recent launch of Restoris, a dental gel for dogs, marking a significant step in the companion animal strategy [6][23] - The Phibro-forward initiatives aim to enhance operational discipline and drive sustainable long-term value creation [6][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for products globally and anticipates continued improvement in business performance [13][14] - The company raised its full-year earnings guidance, reflecting strong performance and disciplined financial management [12][13] Other Important Information - The company generated $34 million in positive free cash flow for the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, with a gross leverage ratio of 3.3 times [11] - A quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share was paid, totaling $4.9 million [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of growth in the MFA business - Management noted strong demand across the MFA portfolio, particularly in poultry, swine, and beef cattle segments, with limited impact on pricing in Q1 [15][16][17] Question: Margin profile for the remainder of the year - Management indicated that Q1 margins were favorable due to product mix, but expected a slight drop in margins as investments in new product launches occur [18][19] Question: Guidance update and revenue range - Management explained that while EBITDA and EPS guidance were raised, revenue guidance remained unchanged due to conservatism and being only one quarter into the fiscal year [21][22] Question: Role in the companion animal market - Management confirmed a focus on unique opportunities in the companion animal space, rather than competing directly with larger players [34][36]